Grammy Awards 2017 Major Category Betting Odds
–The music industry has changed for good but somehow the Grammy Awards continue
– Like the legacy recording industry in general the Grammy’s are of little relevance today
– Relevant or not, the Grammy Awards is a great event to hang some betting odds on
The 2017 Grammy Awards will take place on February 12, 2017. The nominees were released last week and we’ll be providing full odds coverage and analysis throughout. In this article, we’ll start with the major categories and add in some of the lower profile genres later.
MUSIC MUST CHANGE
In 1978, Pete Townshend wrote a song on the last great album by the Who ‘Who Are You’ called ‘Music Must Change’. Spoiler alert–it has. In many ways, the changes in the music industry were a precursor to the current mainstream media nonsense over ‘fake news’. When the dominant player in a hierarchical industry can no longer ‘control the narrative’ things change quickly. The mainstream media and the two major political parties would love to go back to the days when there were only three networks who ‘set the conversation’ with their nightly news show. They’ve been losing the ability to do so for years but the 2016 election might have been the final nail in their coffin. Now they’re on the verge of hysterics trying to brand anyone outside of their little cabal as ‘fake news’ or a ‘Russian agitator’. It would be scary if they had any power but the genie is out of the bottle and never again will three TV networks have the ability to prioritize or suppress information.
The music industry went through the same thing years ago. After years of successfully controlling distribution and using their political clout to stave off any threat to their business model the walls came tumbling down. They’d successfully killed off Digital Audio Taping (DAT) in the 1980s’. They used their relationship with government cronies to get ‘a cut’ of sales of *blank* cassettes and even CD’s. In Canada at one point, over 70% of the cost of blank CDs went right into the recording industry’s pocket. They were able to control who got exposure, who got distribution, and who got promotion.
Alternative artists were essentially marginalized as ‘fake music’ and relegated to ‘import bins’ in dingy college town record stores. The big record stores like Musicland and Record Bar served up a hand picked, sanitized, RIAA approved selection of music to middle America. Their supplicants in the radio industry did their part. In the 1970’s, if you didn’t want to listen to the industry’s approved mixture of disco, mainstream soul, ‘arena rock’ or mainstream country you had few options to listen to or buy new music. You had even fewer ways to learn about it in the first place.
PUNK ROCK AND DIGITAL OBLITERATION
In 2016, the analog era recording industry is running on fumes. The original blow was struck by punk rock followed by other ‘non approved’ genres like heavy metal, rap, ‘outlaw’ country and countless other permutations of music. The digital era and the Internet did the rest. In fact, you can make a compelling case that the recording industry was the first legacy industry to experience this kind of seismic change. It’s impacted creation, promotion, distribution and every other element of the business. The ‘old school’ recording business is on the outside looking in. They’re still around–they’ve been able to stay alive thanks to legal threats and cronyism with government but they’re essentially the ‘walking dead’. No one needs them anymore but they’re still trying to play the game the way they’ve always had. Blockbuster Video had a better business model but fewer people on their payroll in government.
The Grammy Awards is the annual celebration of the legacy recording industry. There’s been less and less to celebrate and the awards have become almost irrelevant to music fans and sales of recordings and concert tickets. The TV ratings of the annual show clearly reflects this–the first televised ceremony in 1974 drew a 30.8 Neilsen Rating. The 2016 Awards Show did a 7.7 rating. In the 1970’s the ‘cream of the crop’ was on display every year–like the legendary Stevie Wonder who was ubiquitous on the Grammy broadcast of that era. Now, it’s more of a musical version of the AOL home page–the ‘lowest common denominator’ that now makes up the ‘mainstream’ in an age of pop culture specialization. It’s not that there’s not talent out there–her genre might not be ‘my thing’ but it’s hard to deny that Adele is a hell of a vocalist. The problem is the same as the legacy media and political shills trying to sell the ‘fake news’ nonsense. It’s impossible to pretend that the media world hasn’t completely changed and no matter how much losing political candidates whine the endless amount of information at our fingertips is a good thing. It may be harder for a ‘legacy’ industry player or a ‘big media’ news outlet ‘control the narrative’ but that’s a ‘feature, not a bug’.
The Grammy Awards might be of minimal importance to the ‘big picture’ of music but if they’re having an awards show we’ll hang numbers on it. We’ll start with the four ‘major awards’ and fill in the various genre and technical awards between now and showtime:
59TH ANNUAL GRAMMY AWARDS PROPOSITION BETTING
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
25–Adele: -175
Lemonade–Beyonce: +175
Purpose–Justin Beiber: +750
Views–Drake: +1500
A Sailor’s Guide To The Earth–Sturgill Simpson: +2500
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Hello–Adele: -175
Formation–Beyonce: +175
Work–Rianna w/ Drake: +750
7 Years–Lukas Graham: +1650
Stressed Out–21 Pilots: +2100
BEST NEW ARTIST
Chance The Rapper: -450
The Chainsmokers: +550
Marren Morris: +750
Anderson Pak: +2500
Kelsea Ballerini: +2100
SONG OF THE YEAR
Hello–Adele: -250
Formation–Beyonce: +350
Love Yourself–Justin Beiber: +650
7 Years–Lukas Graham: +750
I Took A Pill In Ibiza–Mike Posner: +2100