Entertainment Odds–How Will ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ Do At The Box Office?

The iconic ‘Star Wars’ franchise was in the toilet until director J.J. Abrams took over. Episodes 1 through 3 were considered forgettable by fans and miserable by critics. Abrams changed all of that with ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’. Fans loved it to and it was good enough to bring those alienated by the previous three films back to the fold. Critics were also generally favorable and particularly within the context of the original films. And ‘oh by the way’–it’s now the biggest box office film in US history bringing in $936,662,225. Worldwide, the film has topped the $2 billion (US) mark. Most impressively, it broke the $1 billion (US) worldwide revenue mark after just 12 days of release.

Although the next ‘official’ release won’t be out until December 2017 (the working title is ‘Star Wars: Episode VIII’) the franchise is hoping to parlay the revived enthusiasm among fans with a spinoff series and the debut release is the most hotly anticipated movie of 2016. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story isn’t technically part of the ‘official narrative’ set in motion by ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ but is intended to expand the ‘world’ contextually and provide more depth to the backstory of the Rebel Alliance. In the process, LucasFilm and Disney hope to bank another billion or so. If they can keep the historically rabid Star Wars fanbase happy and get decent critical reviews all the better.

Here’s our first set of ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ prop betting odds. These cover the film’s box office revenue and performance with critics and fans. Look for additional ‘Rogue One’ props in the coming weeks!

ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY MOVIE SPECIALS

Box Office Revenue Props


Which film will have the highest 2016 US box office gross revenue?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -350
Finding Dory: +225
Other: +5000

Which film will have the highest 2016 Worldwide box office gross revenue?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -150
Captain America–Civil War: +175
Zootopia: +250
Finding Dory: +400
Other: +5000

Which film will have the highest 2016 single weekend box office gross revenue?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -450
Deadpool: +500
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them–Harry Potter Prequel: +500
Dr. Strange: +750
Other: +5000

Will ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ exceed $1 billion in worldwide revenues by 1/1/17?:

Yes: -150
No: +120

Box Office Revenue Matchup Bets


Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -175
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them +$100 million US: +130

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -150
Deadpool +$100 million US ($232,434,639): +110

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -125
Finding Dory +$100 million US ($235,060,273): +105

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -110
Batman vs. Superman +$75 million US ($241,007,347): -110

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: +110
Return of the Jedi (1983) adjusted for inflation +$200 million($255,798,999): -150

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -120
The Empire Strikes Back (1980) adjusted for inflation +$225 million($239,387,476): +100

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -125
Avatar (2009) adjusted for inflation +$150 million US (236,680,189): +105

RottenTomatoes.com Review Props


The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens (92%): +120
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens (92%): -150

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode III-Revenge of the Sith (79%): -135
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode III-Revenge of the Sith (79%): +105

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode II-Attack of the Clones (65%): -200
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode II-Attack of the Clones (65%): +170

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace (55%): -300
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace (55%): +250

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Audience Score ‘rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Audience Score’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens: +120
Lower than the ‘Audience Score’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens: -150

Movie Critic Rating Props


The ‘Rolling Stone’ Magazine review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 3.25: -125
Under 3.25: +105

The ‘Rolling Stone’ Magazine review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 2.25: -250
Under 2.25: +175

The ‘NPR’ review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 7.25: -125
Under 7.25: +105

The ‘NPR’ Magazine review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 8.25: +125
Under 8.25: -150

The ‘USA TODAY’ review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 3.75: +150
Under 3.75: -185

The ‘USA TODAY’ review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 2.75: -150
Under 2.75: +120

The BoxOfficeMojo.com website will be used for grading of all box office revenue props. ‘Opening Weekend’ is considered the first Friday through Sunday period that the film is in wide release. Inflation adjustments, where noted, have been done with the ‘inflation calculator’ at US Inflation Calculator.com and the indicated numbers will be official for the purpose of grading wagers. All RottenTomatoes.com props will be graded on data from the website as of 12 noon Eastern on 1/1/17. Movie critic review scores reported at RottenTomatoes.com will be used for official grading.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.