Evenly Matched Contest Between Padres and Mets on Wednesday
Who: New York Mets v. San Diego Padres
When: Wednesday July 26th, 2017 10:10PM EST
Where: Petco Park—San Diego, California
Though this might have been known to all of us before the 2017 MLB season ever began, but the reality of not making playoffs has just set in for both the Padres and Mets organizations. The Mets are, and have been, more than 10 games off the pace in the NL East for some time, and that does not look like it is changing. Since the All-Star Break, however, the team from Flushing really has come to play. So far in the second half of the season, the Mets have won 8 of 12, albeit against some weaker teams such as Oakland and their current opponents, San Diego. Having won the first 2 games of this 4-game series, the Mets will look to continue their better than expected form on Wednesday.
For the Padres, the passing of the All-Star Break did not bring about a drastically different style of play. In their 12 games since the break, the Padres have lost 7 and counting. While it hasn’t necessarily been a lack of runs scored that has worked against the Padres, it has instead been a lack of effective pitching. If you look at their previous 4 losses, you will see that their opponents scored 5, 9, 9, and 18 runs. If you are giving up 5+ runs on a regular basis, it will be impossible for your team to win over the long-term, and that is exactly what we are seeing in San Diego. Luckily for them, the losses are inconsequential at this point as they are out of the playoff race. Instead, this series has been nothing but a showcase of potential trade prospects, as the July 31st trade deadline inches ever-closer with each passing day.
Game Overview and Analysis
On the mound for the Mets (-110) on Wednesday will be left-hander Steven Matz (2-3 4.67 ERA). Matz, a 2-year veteran, will be making just his 9th start on Wednesday. Matz recently returned from a shoulder surgery that kept him out for over a month. Since his return, however, things have not exactly gone smoothly. His last 4 starts saw him earn 2 losses and 2 no-decisions while giving up loads of runs in the process. In fact, Matz started against the Rockies on July 16th and could not even make it into the second innings. He gave up 7 earned in his first inning of pitching, and was pulled shortly thereafter. In total, his last 3 starts have seen Matz give up 15 runs without being able to make it more than 5 innings even once.
The Mets might be playing some better ball on the offensive side of things, but their pitching has left a lot to be desired more often than not. Unless Matz can completely turn things around tonight, I would not be surprised to see another loss added to his record.
For the Padres (-110) it will be Jhoulys Chacin (9-7 4.26 ERA) who will be making the start. Unlike the Padres as an organization, Chacin has been playing lights-out baseball of late. His last 4 starts have resulted in 3 earned victories as well as 1 no-decision that ended up being a Mets victory as well. In 3 of these 4 outings Chacin made it at least 6 innings and kept earned runs to a minimum.
If the Padres bats can perform against a Steven Matz that has been less than impressive, I think they will be able to avoid being on the verge of a 4-game sweep.
Betting Prediction
As far as what moneyline you should take, I am going to have to side with the Padres on this one. Though the Mets have won the first 2 games of the series—including a thrilling 6-5 victory on Tuesday—they have not exactly been the most dominant team. Both of their wins have come by 2 runs or less. Being that Jhoulys Chacin has been playing very well, and that Matz has not, I think the logical bet to make is on the Padres moneyline. These teams are both so poor that even the oddsmakers consider this an even matchup, but with -110 odds you can earn some decent cash.
The over/under offered by Bovada in this one is currently listed at 8.5 runs (-105/-115). I think that, considering Matz’s propensity for giving up large sums of runs recently that you have to take the over (-105). Last night’s run tally exceeded this count and Monday night’s game saw the teams combine for 8 runs, so I would not be surprised at all if this went over.
Finally, the point spread sees the Padres listed as +1.5 run underdogs (-170). Though Bovada is not offering the best odds in the world for this wager, it is still a bet I think you would be wise to take. For me, I do not see many scenarios where the Padres do not emerge victorious.