Financial Betting–Post Election Financial Market Performance Odds
– Historically, stock prices have benefitted from the election of a Republican President.
– This election has a strange dynamic–Clinton is the favorite of Wall Street and ‘big business’.
– Ultimately, there’s little to suggest a strong correlation between elections and financial market performance
With the election just a couple of days away we’re going to try to add in a few more proposition bets before Tuesday. We’ll have a ‘state by state’ odds rundown posted before Tuesday as well as some other prop bets I’ve been looking at. Also, we’ll update where things stand in the Presidential Election betting markets on Monday prior to Election Day.
One of the more talked about impacts of this (and every other) Presidential election is how it’ll influence the performance of financial markets. Ultimately, however, it seems to be ‘much ado about nothing’. The President has very little direct impact on the economy and even less on stock markets. The type of megalomaniac blowhard that runs for President likes to *think* he can snap his fingers and ‘create jobs’ or prosperity or whatever. It just doesn’t work like that. It never has and as the world economic structure becomes more and more decentralized it never will.
TWO ANALOG ERA CANDIDATES CLUELESS–AND HELPLESS–IN A DIGITAL WORLD
Most significantly in this election is the fact that both candidates are selling an ‘analog era’ vision of prosperity that simply doesn’t exist anymore–assuming it ever did outside of the rosy nostalgia of baby boomers. Both candidates are trying to sell a bill of goods to make people believe that with just a few minor changes like reduced immigration, greater unionization and less ‘offshoring’ (a bad word that neither candidate really understands) we’ll have a booming post war style economy once again. These candidates (and most politicians in recent years) try to suggest that with just a few minor tweaks we’ll have a roaring assembly line style manufacturing economy with massive auto and steel plants offering high pay jobs for very little skill or education.
Spoiler alert–that economic model is gone and its not coming back no matter what the eventual winner of this election does. One of the dumber things that Donald Trump has said is that ‘America doesn’t make anything anymore’. Uh, sorry Donald–manufacturing generates $3 trillion in value annually. The US is at the top of the list creating more value through manufacturing than the next three countries *combined*. Most impressively, the US manufacturing economy’s output has *doubled* in the past 30 years. So much for ‘not making anything anymore’. There are fewer manufacturing *jobs* now than at any point in history but that’s also not going to change. That’s a result of more efficient processes and increased technology which *requires* fewer employees to create the same amount of value. Furthermore, the modern manufacturing jobs often require a high level of skills or at the very least some specific type of knowledge or ability.
BOTH CANDIDATES ARE TOOLS OF THE STATUS QUO
Neither candidate has a concept, let alone any type of fluency, with the economic world as it exists now and will exist in the future. Part of this is ignorance, part of this is willful neglect. As the digital transformation and innovation it brings continues to eviscerate the status quo why would any politician or government *want* to embrace reality? Their actual job is to preserve the status quo at the behest of their economic benefactors. The scam worked well for centuries but the jig is up. Politicians give lip service to the importance of technology and ‘STEM jobs’ but they know that eventually they and their longtime financial supplicants are dinosaurs in the modern digital world. Good riddance….
Specific to these two candidates the prevailing opinion is that a Clinton election will have the greatest immediate benefit to Wall Street. This isn’t because they think she’s better qualified to be a ‘steward of the economy’ (a silly concept to begin with) but because she’s bought and paid for by all of the big Wall Street financial firms, the big banks, big law firms, etc. This is a strange election as typically the Republicans are the party of ‘big business’. Not that Trump is ignorant of this milieu and in terms of practical knowledge likely knows way more than Clinton. Hillary has spent her entire working life sponging off of taxpayers while at the very least Trump has been active in the private sector. Still, Wall Street might respond more favorably to a Clinton election since they’ve spent a lot of money backing her in their increasingly futile hope to maintain the status quo.
The bottom line–it doesn’t really matter who gets elected. The main thing that Wall Street hates is uncertainty and while they might feel personally burned should their financial investment in Clinton gets them nothing it’s just pocket change for them. Besides, they’ve got another analog era relic in Trump they can financially ‘encourage’ in their ultimately doomed effort to stem the tide of technology, freedom, peace and decentralization. It’ll be fun to watch as our war mongering, coercive and divisive government becomes less and less relevant.
Here’s some proposition betting odds on the immediate reaction of the financial markets to the outcome of the election:
POST ELECTION FINANCIAL MARKET PERFORMANCE BETTING ODDS
BITCOIN PRICES
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $710: -125
Under $710: +105
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $700: -150
Under $700: +130
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $650: -300
Under $650: +225
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $750: +130
Under $750: -150
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $800: +225
Under $800: -300
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $850: +425
Under $850: -550
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1000: +1200
Under $1000: -1500
GOLD PRICES
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1300: -175
Under $1300: +145
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1350: -110
Under $1350: +110
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1275: -225
Under $1275: +170
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1250: -250
Under $1250: +210
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 11/10/16 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1200: -450
Under $1200: +325
US STOCK EXCHANGES
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 17,000: -150
Under 17,000: +120
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 17,500: -110
Under 17,500: -110
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 18,000: +150
Under 18,000: -190
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 5000: -135
Under 5000: +115
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 5500: +135
Under 5500: -155
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 4750: -175
Under 4750: +145
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 4500: -250
Under 4500: +210
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 6000: +300
Under 6000: -450
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 2000: -150
Under 2000: +120
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 2100: -110
Under 2100: +110
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 2200: +150
Under 2200: -180
INDIVIDUAL STOCK PRICES
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG–Alphabet Inc, Class C) closing stock price on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 765: -150
Under 765: +120
Exxon-Mobile (NYSE:XOM) closing stock price on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 82.50: -150
Under 82.50: +120
Apple (NASDAQ:APPL) closing stock price on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 108.50: -150
Under 108.50: +120
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) closing stock price on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 121.50: -125
Under 121.50: +105
Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) closing stock price on 11/9/16 will be?
Over 190: -120
Under 190: +100