Germany Favored to Advance Past Mexico in Semis
Who: Germany v. Mexico
When: Thursday June 28th, 2017 2:00PM EST
Where: Sochi Parc Arena—Sochi, Russia
Mexico and Germany are both deserving semifinalists at the 2017 Confederations Cup in Russia, but only one of the two will be able to advance to the final. If you are asking how they got to the semifinals, the answer for both teams is by way of 2 wins and 1 draw during the group stages. These results were good enough to see the Germans advance as winners of Group B, while Mexico advanced out of Group A as runners-up.
These two sides are historically some of the best in world football, but at this year’s tournament have been taking very different approaches. Mexico, the CONCACAF representative, has been sporting what is probably the best squad they can muster. Germany, on the other hand, has given some of their stars a rest for the summer, and has instead been employing a youthful cast of characters. While this may seem like a bold approach, it has thus far worked out in the Germans’ favor and has served to prove that they really are, as a nation, a football factory.
Match Overview and Analysis
What we see when we compare Mexico (+265) and Germany (-110) are two very different teams, right down to the way they play. Mexico have been an attacking force and have scored 2 goals in all 3 of their group matches, including a stoppage time equalizer that saw them draw even with the other semifinalists from Group A, Portugal. The attack-minded Mexicans do not excel in defense, but have done enough to keep opponents like Russia and New Zealand from netting more than one goal. Against Germany, I am very much calling into question the togetherness of the Mexican defense. Germany’s youthfulness means that there is always going to be a lot of activity on all areas of the pitch. If Mexico cannot stay organized in the back, it may end up being a long afternoon for them. If they can retain their structure, however, the overall experience of their back line may prove to be the difference in the match.
Before ever kicking a ball in this match, Germany are fully aware of the fact that their nation has only lost to Mexico once in international play, all the way back in 1985. With that being said, the Germans are not content to rest on their laurels and will have to come out in sync and ready to take on a more than competent Mexico side. Thus far, we have very little in the way of negative things to say about Germany’s performances. Though they slipped a bit in their opening group match with Australia, it has been relatively smooth sailing since. Despite being riddled with youth (AKA inexperience), this German side has been overly impressive in just about all areas of the pitch. On top of that, we know that they can score goals too. Apart from their 1-1 draw with Chile, the Germans have netted 3 goals in each of their other 2 matches. If Mexico is not careful, they run the risk of being diced by a potent German unit.
Betting Predictions
As you can tell from the moneyline posted by Bovada, Germany (-110) are clear favorites to win this match. As much as I would like to tell you that a value-ridden bet on Mexico (+265) is the way to go, it really isn’t. In my eyes, Mexico are just slightly more talented than the Cameroon squad Germany were able to defeat by a scoreline of 3-1. Though there is an off chance that they can sneak an early goal and defend for the rest of the match, I see Germany’s quality prevailing, and them winning within 90 minutes. As such, a German moneyline wager (-110) is your best bet in this one. What’s more, at -110 you are getting fairly decent odds.
If you are wary of whether this game will be decided in regular time or not, Bovada also has a proposition that allows you to wager on the team you think will qualify for the final, whether it happens in extra time or not. Germany to qualify is currently listed at -190, and is also a decent value bet that you can make.
My bold prediction for this match exists as an alternate spread on Bovada, and lists the Germans as -1 goal favorites (+175). Being that the Mexicans are going to be forced to make moves in the offensive third of the pitch, I think Germany may very well be able to sneak multiple goals past the North Americans on the counterattack. This rings especially true if Germany take an early 1-0 lead. In all, the fact that Mexico will have to push forward means that they will be exposed in the back. What all of this really means is that Germany might be able to really open up the scoring and slide multiple goals past the Mexicans.