Golf Betting–Hero World Challenge and Tiger Woods Props

Written by Jim Murphy

– Tiger Woods announces that he’ll return to competitive golf following a 15 month absence at the December 1-4 Hero World Challenge held in the Bahamas.

– So far so good–Tiger looks surprisingly sharp and no signs of injury.

– Woods thinks that he can still beat Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 Major tournament victories.

Tiger Woods announced his return to golf nearly a month ago and with the Hero World Challenge set to begin on Thursday there’s no reason to think that he won’t go through with it. The Hero World Challenge is held in the Bahamas December 1-4 and is a limited field tournament organized and promoted by the Tiger Woods Foundation:

“I am excited to make my return at the Hero World Challenge at Albany and play in this terrific tournament. This is our 18th year, and every year we put together a top field that showcases the best golfers from the previous season.”

The last time Woods played in a competitive golf event was at the 2015 Wyndham Championship. He finished tied for 10th but underwent two back surgeries afterwards. He had originally planned to return at the Safeway Open which was the first tournament of the 2016-2017 PGA Season. After accepting a spot in the field he eventually withdrew three days before the start of the event.

In addition to his role as host of the Hero World Challenge he has some financial motivation to return to active competition. He recently made the media rounds promoting his new ‘personal brand’ TGR: Tiger Woods Ventures. It is the new corporate entity that runs all of Woods’ business and charitable endeavors including the Tiger Woods Foundation. During an interview with Charlie Rose he said that he thinks he can still beat Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 Major victories. He dropped the hint that he’d return at the Hero World Challenge in an appearance on the ‘Late Show with Steven Colbert’. He sounded serious then and there’s nothing that he’s said or done since that suggests otherwise.

Perhaps the most hopeful sign was Woods’ performance in a 9 hole round played with Justin Rose and former New York Yankees’ legend Derek Jeter. Hard to take a lot away from this in terms of his long term prognosis but the general consensus is that Woods looks healthy and is hitting the ball well. Obviously, any number of things can happen both in the short or long term but even past his prime if Woods can remain healthy he’s got the skills and the ‘smarts’ to be extremely dangerous. If he decides to play a limited schedule and focus his efforts on the Majors in an effort to run down the ‘Golden Bear’ things could become even more interesting.

With Tiger Woods as close to a return as he’s been in over a year we’ve come up with some proposition betting odds on how his golfing career will work out going forward, as well as his performance at the Hero World Challenge. We originally posted odds on this tournament and Woods’ future performance right after the announcement of his return. At the time, there was a lot of skepticism about his ability to get back to a high competitive level. It’s still not a ‘done deal’ but the mood has changed to somewhere between a ‘wait and see’ attitude to guarded optimism. In light of this, it was necessary to update these prices.

Quick note on how I made many of the ‘career’ odds–since it’s impossible to factor in every possible variable of Tiger’s return to form what I did was try and come up with the odds for an ‘average PGA pro’ to win a Major and/or multiple majors. My assumption was that a Tiger Woods hobbled by injury was most definitely a ‘below average’ PGA player. A healthy Tiger Woods–even if he is a bit ‘long in the tooth’–is most definitely not average. Some of the proposition bets I left where they were because they’re still a monumental challenge. Even if Tiger is healthy, beating Jack Nicklaus’ record 18 majors is going to be a tough task. I did change a few of the proposition bets for more reasonable goals such as winning another tournament or winning another Major. The real test will be his ability to take the ‘wear and tear’ of the sport but you can look at the video of his 9 hole round with Rose and Jeter and it’s clear that he’s far from being an ‘invalid’.

Looking at the betting odds I’m seeing on the tournament it might actually be worth taking a small position on ‘Eldrick’. I’ve seen him as high as +4500 to win. Given the unique format and his experience on this course that’s a big number. Much is predicated on the perception that he’s ‘over the hill’ or will get injured and there’s not a lot to suggest that is a ‘given’. You can also get Tiger at +900 to finish Top 4 and +600 to finish Top 5. With only 18 players in the field it wouldn’t take much for him to finish well. This is a rare circumstances where Tiger might not only be ‘undervalued’ but significantly so:

TIGER WOODS PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS

Will Tiger Woods withdraw before the start of the Hero World Challenge? (December 1-4)

Yes: +375
No: -550

Will Tiger Woods tee off in first round of the Hero World Challenge? (December 1-4)

Yes: -300
No: +250

Will Tiger Woods withdraw before completing the Hero World Challenge due to injury?

Yes: +350
No: -500

Will Tiger Woods win the Hero World Challenge?

Yes: +2500
No: -4500

Will Tiger Woods play in any PGA or European Tour Event before the end of 2017?

Yes: -1500
No: +900

Will Tiger Woods win another tournament before the end of his career?

Yes: -150
No: +120

Will Tiger Woods win at least one Major before the end of his career?

Yes: +175
No: -250

Will Tiger Woods win a Major in 2017? (Masters, US Open, British Open, PGA Championships)

Yes: +750
No: -1200

Will Tiger Woods win the 2017 Masters?

Yes: +2500
No: -4000

Will Tiger Woods finish #1 on the 2016-2017 PGA earnings list?

Yes: +7500
No: -12500

Will Tiger Woods finish top 20 in all four 2017 Majors?

Yes: +1750
No: -2250

Will Tiger Woods finish top 10 in all four 2017 Majors?

Yes: +5000
No: -7500

Will Tiger Woods finish top 5 in all four 2017 Majors?

Yes: +15000
No: -20000

Will Tiger Woods win all four 2017 Majors?

Yes: +50000
No: -75000

Will Tiger Woods tie Jack Nicklaus with 18 Major victories before the end of his career?