Heavily Favored Patriots Play Host to Alex Smith and Kansas City
Who: Kansas City Chiefs v. New England Patriots
When: September 7th, 2017 8:30PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium—Foxborough, Massachusetts
The beginning of the NFL season cannot get much more exciting than this year’s first game, which sees the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Foxborough to take on the Patriots. As we all know, the Patriots are coming off perhaps one of the best Super Bowl victories ever, after rallying from 25 points down to win the title. The Chiefs, however, will be entering the 2017/18 season coming off of a decent regular season and a short post-season stint. Their 2016 season came to a conclusion thanks to an interesting 18-16 loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
As for what to look out for, it will be both teams’ quarterbacks. Both Tom Brady and Alex Smith are headline-grabbers, though for pretty different reasons. For Tom Brady, the big question mark is whether or not his age will begin to show this year. What’ more, people are wondering—as they have in the past—how the Patriots are going to deal with the fact that they will be utilizing the pass game most of the time. It’s not as though the Patriots’ pass game is anything to scoff at, but if Tom Brady’s age does begin to show this year, the one-dimensional offensive approach may not work out as well as it has in the past.
For the Chiefs, they are suited to do well in their division and will be looking to steal an opening night victory. Of course, very few teams are capable of stepping foot inside Gillette Stadium and emerging victorious, and the Chiefs will be fully aware of that. Still, it is the very first game of a fresh season, so if there were ever a time for an upset, now would be that time. I feel as though the opening few drives will dictate the pace and style of this game, so those will be interesting to key in on in the early running, especially if you are considering entertaining a live bet.
Game Overview and Analysis
The -9 (-105) New England Patriots (-500) are heavy favorites in this matchup, and it is easy to understand why. Though they got rid of last year’s rather successful running back LeGarrette Blount, the Patriots are now entertaining a committee of running backs, each capable of doing damage in their own way. On one hand, you have the speed of Dion Lewis and James White, while, alternatively, the Patriots will also be giving the ball to more well-rounded runners like Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. Though the running back by committee approach is hardly ever as successful in the NFL as it is at the college level, teams typically do not have Tom Brady standing under center. Being that we all know the Pats are a pass-first offense, they will only need to be marginally successful on the ground to really open things up.
While I would not call the Patriots’ defense underachievers by any stretch of the imagination, they do not exactly live up to the hype of their team’s offense. All in all, it will be an interesting matchup—Chiefs Offense v. Pats D—but so long as the offense takes care of the business, so will the Patriots.
The +9 (-115) Chiefs (+350) defense will matchup decently with the offense of the Patriots such that Tom Brady may be given a few issues early. Kansas City did well to keep playoff-bound opponents’ scoring to a minimum last year, and I do not think much will change during this campaign. Alex Smith will make the QB start for the Chiefs on Thursday night, and as much as rookie sensation Patrick Mahomes was hyped up during the pre-season (and for good reason), Andy Reid and his staff still have full confidence in the veteran Smith. Just how much freedom to work he will have will be interesting to see, but I do not see the Patriots’ defense being the biggest challenge he has ever faced, and I think he will do well, overall.
Betting Prediction
Bovada lists the Patriots (-500) as massive favorites on the moneyline, and I think this is a bet that should be shied away from simply because there is very little value in it. I like the -9 (-105) point spread for the Patriots because I think Tom Brady will look just as fresh tonight as he did all last season. The ageless wonder will more than likely rip apart Kansas City’s secondary, so I do not think covering a 9-point spread is unfathomable.
An interesting bet you might consider is the Patriots’ over/under for the first half of play. This segment bet sees the over/under listed at 14.5 points (-135/-105) on Bovada. The traditional over/under is listed at 47.5 (-110/-110), and my initial reaction is that I do not know if the Chiefs will score enough to satisfy the over. I think this is very much a toss-up, but my gut is telling me to go with the under (-110).