Heavily Favored Toronto to Take On Ailing Union
Who: Toronto FC v. Philadelphia Union
When: Wednesday August 22nd, 2017 8:00PM EST
Where: BMO Field—Toronto, Canada
The Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC will meet in Toronto on Wednesday, and when they do, the Union will very much be licking their wounds and limping into this match. The reason this is so is due to the fact that Philadelphia, who were more than +300 entering the match, conceded a penalty in the last seconds, and the match was suddenly all square as the final whistle sounded. Now, the Union are on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned, and have a tough schedule ahead of them.
Toronto, on the other hand, seem to be cruising into the post-season. They have not lost an MLS match since the 1st day of July, and, in fact, have won every match with the exception of one. To say that Toronto are dominating would be an understatement, as most of their victories are emphatic in nature. They are only atop the East by a 4-point margin, but their goal differential is a whole 9 goals better than the next best team, New York City FC.
On paper, this might look to be a one-sided match up, and it even might prove to be that by the time the final whistle blows, but it is important to keep in mind that the Union managed to draw Toronto 2-2 when they met earlier this year, on the opening weekend. Granted, that was a long time ago relatively speaking, but the fact remains: the Union have proven that they can keep up with the top team in the East. Will lingering confidence be enough to undo the Union’s recent, ongoing struggles? That much remains to be seen, but we do know that we have an exciting match on our hands.
Match Overview and Analysis
Toronto (-220), have no shortage of weapons upon which they can rely. Rather than focus solely on individual accolades, I feel as though it is more appropriate to discuss what the team, as a whole, has accomplished. For one, Toronto has now gone 13 consecutive matches without a home defeat, winning a whopping 10 of those games. In their last 2 matches, the Reds have managed a quartet of goals, meaning that if they score 4 on Wednesday night, history will be made.
Between Giovinco, Bradley, and Altidore, few teams—and especially not the Union—match up against this 2017 Toronto squad. In all honesty, there are almost no complaints you can have about what Toronto has been doing of late. In addition to scoring goals at every turn, they have managed to keep goals off the board as well. Down the stretch, their ability to keep opponents out of the back of the net will prove to be vital. It is clear to see that this year’s installment of Toronto FC is eager to lay claim to what was so bone-crushingly lost in the embers of last year’s domestic campaign, and it currently looks like they will be able to do just that.
The Union (+600) are not being given much of a chance in this one, and there are a few reasons as to why this is so. For one, they have been absolutely terrible when they are playing away from Talen Energy Stadium. For their last win on the road you would have to go all the way back to May, when they played away to DC United. Between then and now, the Union have failed to win on the road, and have lost far more often than they have drawn. This is a stat that will really intimidate them heading into their second match with a team that was inches within a championship last year.
The second thing that is hurting the Union right now is their inability to defend. They do not have much trouble getting the ball into the back of the net, as seen by their above-average (+1) goal differential, but they struggle when it ocmes to keeping the ball out of the net. Fortunately, Andre Blake—who was injured during this summer’s Gold Cup—will be back between the posts for the Union on Wednesday. Whether this will be enough to stop a rolling Toronto squad remains to be seen.
Betting Prediction
If you are thinking about a moneyline bet, I have no qualms recommending that you hammer Toronto’s (-220). Though it pays at less than half odds, I think they are far and above favorites for a reason, and I think that will become evident within minutes of the opening kick-off.
The over/under for this one is listed by Bovada at 3 goals (-110/-110), but I think you should explore the alternate totals bets as well. I think the alternate over/under of 2.5 (-170/+140) will suit you better. I understand that their first meeting saw 4 goals scored, but I do not think that this time around is guaranteed to be an exact replica, and for that reason I might stay away from over an even 3 goals (-110).