Hosting Twins Heavily Favored Over Visiting White Sox
Who: Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins
When: Tuesday August 29th, 2017 8:10PM EST
Where: Target Field—Minneapolis, Minnesota
The Twins recently improved play is thanks, in part, to the resurgence of Byron Buxton. A few years ago, Buxton was regarded as one of the top prospects working his way up to the Majors. Unfortunately, his successes were limited at the MLB level. In recent weeks, the Buxton who was so highly-touted a few years ago seems to have burst from his shell. In August so far, Buxton is batting an impressive .330, including 8 homeruns and more than 20 RBIs. Just two days ago, Buxton homered 3 times to propel the Twins to victory over the Blue Jays.
Right now, Minnesota is clinging to the 2nd Wild Card position, ahead of the Angels by a single game but behind the Yankees by 2. On their most recent 8-game road trip, the Twins managed a 4-4 record. Overall for the month of August, however, the Twins are playing the best baseball they have in years. If the Twins can sweep their divisional rivals, they will have gone 20-10 in August, their best such month since May of 2015. Regardless of what happens in this series, the Twins are looking like post-season contenders.
As for the White Sox, not too much has changed in recent weeks. With that being said, a recent 5-game series with the Twins saw the White Sox win 3 of 5 and take the series. While most people are having a difficult time envisioning the Sox having anywhere near as good of a performance this time around, we have seen that they are more than capable of taking care of any caliber MLB team.
Being that this is the first of a 3-game series, Bovada is currently offering moneyline odds on which team will win at least 2 of 3. As you might have expected, the White Sox (+195) are currently heavy underdogs. The Twins (-250), on the other hand, are expected to win at least 2, and probably 3. If you are going to take this bet, I would go with the Twins, but you need to understand that the odds are not very good.
Game Overview and Analysis
As for the Twins (-210), they are going to be sending Ervin Santana (13-7 3.24 ERA) to the mound. Santana has been dominant this year, and especially against divisional opponents. As for his more recent form, it is typified by a bunch of no-decisions and a couple wins. Despite the no-decisions, Santana has been pitching some great baseball and regularly keeps his earned run tally at or below 3, which is what most teams ask for in a competent starter. In fact, you would have to go back to the end of July to find the last time Santana gave up more than 3 earned in one outing.
If the Twins’ starting pitcher can take care of business, my opinion is that the rest of the game will take care of itself. The Twins’ offense can get runs across the plate, and against a team like the White Sox that is something that is especially true.
For the White Sox (+180), they will be sending right-hander James Shields (2-4 5.63 ERA) to the mound. In many ways, Shields is the polar-opposite of Ervin Santana. Where Santana’s recent stat line is marked by no-decisions and wins, Shields’ is marked by no-decisions and losses. If you add that to the fact that the White Sox do not have anything near what can be considered a potent offense, they are going to really be up against it in both this game and the series as a whole.
Sure, there is a chance that Shields and the White Sox come out and put on a competent performance and earn a victory, but against a Twins team that needs to win to preserve its current playoff standing, that much does not seem so likely.
Betting Prediction
As far as what moneyline to take, you have to go with the Twins (-210) in this one. I know the -210 odds are not the absolute most appealing, but the fact of the matter is that the Twins are the heavy favorite for a reason. They have the better of the two pitchers, the better offense, and will be in front of their home fans. I find it very difficult to believe that the White Sox have much of any chance.
As for an over/under, I am going to direct you to the Twins’ team over/under, which is listed by Bovada at 5.5 runs (+115/-145). I know it is a bit risky, but I think you should take the Twins’ over in this one.
The Twins are favored by 1.5 runs on the point spread (EVEN), and I also think this is a solid bet. The way I see it, I do not think the White Sox will score very many runs, and I think the Twins have more than enough power to score quite a few.