Indians Favored as Series in Baltimore Kicks Off
When the Cleveland Indians (-177) head to Baltimore on Monday to play the first of a 4-game series with the Orioles (+152), they will be looking to extend a 5-game winning streak that saw the 2016 AL champions sweep the Minnesota Twins. Now, the Indians find themselves in their rightful position atop the AL Central, at least for the time being. The Orioles, on the other hand, are still struggling for some consistency, but will be riding high when the first pitch is thrown on Monday considering they are coming off the back of a 2-game winning streak that saw them take 2 of 3 from St. Louis.
On paper, Cleveland looks like the superior team, but when you look at what happened in 2016 that thought begins to change a bit. The Indians went just 1-5 against Baltimore last year despite being one of the best teams in MLB. Will this year be any different? Signs are pointing to yes.
Pitching Matchup and Analysis
Dylan Bundy (7-5 3.29 ERA) will take the mound for the Orioles (+152) and will face off with the Indians’ Corey Kluber (5-2 4.15 ERA). To be completely honest, both of these pitchers have been average throughout the season so far. Neither has stood out as being their team’s ace, but in the same breath they have both accrued a healthy helping of wins.
Kluber is the pitcher to watch in this one seeing as he just came back from injury on the 1st of the month. Though he has earned a 2-0 record in 3 starts, the fact that he is still dealing with back issues is something that cannot be ignored. Still, it seems as though he has healed up nicely since having to be put on the DL in May.
Bundy started 4 days ago against the White Sox and recorded a victory in spite of the fact that he gave up 4 earned runs. Perhaps the most interesting stat of all regarding Bundy is the fact that in 14 games started, he has given up at least 2 runs and at least 4 hits in each and every outing. This is a stat worth noting considering the Indians—during their current 5-game win streak—have scored at least 5 runs in each and every one of their last 5 games.
Betting Predictions
2 bets I really think you will find value in from this game are two different overs. First and foremost, MyBookie has the game’s total over/under listed at an even 9 runs (-105/-115). When you consider Cleveland’s recent performances I think you need to take the over (-105) in this one. The Indians have been scoring a lot recently as we have already mentioned, but in their last 2 wins the Orioles have hit a total of 10 homeruns and have averaged almost 12 runs per game. With that way Bundy gives up runs, I think the over is a wise choice.
Cleveland’s team over is listed at 5 runs (-110), and I think this is a smart wager to take as well. The Indians have scored at least this many runs in each of their last 5 games, and have surpassed that tally 4 of those 5 matches. The value one both of these aforementioned bets is as close to even money as you can get. If I were to pick one or the other to go with, I would pick the Indians’ team over. Bundy’s pitching combined with how the Indians have been playing as of late makes this bet seem like an intelligent one.
An alternate bet that may be more safe than it is valuable is one offered by MyBookie. It sees the Orioles placed at a spread of +2.5 (-185). I think being on a win streak—albeit a small one—combined with being in front of their home fans will urge the Orioles forward. Though I do not necessarily see them as being the stronger of the two sides, I do think this game will be close. After all, Baltimore and Cleveland have posted similar hitting statistics thus far this season.
As far as an outright winner of this game is concerned, I am leaning towards the Indians (-177) for a few different reasons. For one, they have been winning for the past week or so, and it is tough to bet against momentum like that. Secondly, they are facing a pitcher that loves to give up runs. Combine the winning streak—and the hitting that has taken place during it—and the weaker pitching the Indians will face, and I think they will emerge victorious. While one might argue that the Orioles have homefield advantage, it being a Monday night game leads me to believe that this game will be far from a sellout, therefore drastically reducing any advantage that playing at home might bring. On top of that, I think the Orioles are, across the board, a weaker team than the Indians. There just isn’t much there that would suggest the Orioles really have much of a shot on Monday night.