Marlins Favored to Take 2nd Consecutive Win Against Cincinnati
Who: Cincinnati Reds v. Miami Marlins
When: Friday July 28th, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: Marlins Park—Miami, Florida
The Marlins and the Reds are two teams that have long since given up on making the playoffs. Both teams are well over a dozen games off the pace in their respective divisions, and are well out of the Wildcard race as well. For the Reds, the second half of the MLB season has thus far been one to forget. They have won just 2 games since the early parts of this month and look to be one of the worst-performing teams in baseball. While the Reds’ pitching has been nothing to write home about, it isn’t their pitching that is the biggest issue. The Reds, quite simply, cannot seem to get runs on the board. No matter what they do their total runs scored rarely eclipse 2. Even when they do score more than 2 runs, their opponents typically add loads more.
To put this in perspective, the Reds have lost by less than 2 runs on just 3 occasions since the All-Star Break. What this tells you is that they are not hitting well, but it also tells us that their pitchers are not helping much at all either. As such, they have been giving younger players a chance to prove themselves, and that is exactly what we will see on Friday.
The Marlins have not been quite as poor as the Reds, however they are not playing good baseball by any stretch of the imagination. Now sitting 14 games back of the NL East leasing Nationals, the Marlins too will be looking to start some younger players in hopes of turning things around in 2018. Though not as severe, the problems facing Miami are almost identical to those facing the Reds. A lack of strong pitching and an almost complete void as far as run creation is concerned has really helped the losses add up.
Game Overview and Analysis
When the Reds (+105) take the field on Friday night, they will be sending Sal Romano (2-2 5.50 ERA) to the mound. Romano made his MLB debut back in April, but did not perform very well, earned a loss, and was subsequently sent down to the minors. While at the AAA level, Romano continued to disappoint by going 1-4 both before and after a bum shoulder kept him out for a period of time. Through his limited time in the Majors, two things we have seen from Romano are that he is not able to make it very far into games (only once did he last more than 5 innings) and he is prone to giving up runs.
In a start against the Diamondbacks 10 days ago, Romano gave up 6 earned in only 4 innings pitched. At only 23 years of age the upside for Romano is infinite, but his early endeavors in MLB have been anything but fruitful. It will be interesting to see if he can turn this around tonight.
For the Marlins (-125), Vance Worley (0-2 6.37 ERA) will assume the starting role. Worley has spent most of this season in a relief position, but will be making his 5th start for the Marlins. The one thing that worries me about Worley in this matchup is that he has not started a game in some time. His last 10 outings were all as a relief pitcher. With that being said, we have seen glimpses of a pitcher who can really deliver. If you look at his last 5 games, he only gave up runs (3) in one of them. The other 4 outings—albeit they were for 1-3 innings at a time—have seen Worley really perform.
If he can build on this positive play, and his bats can connect with the ball, I think it might be the Marlins night for a second night in a row.
Betting Prediction
Without a doubt, I think the best bet is a moneyline wager on the Marlins (-125) through MyBookie. Worley may be a relief pitcher being thrust, yet again, into the starting role, but he has been delivering the ball well lately so I feel as though that will translate well. What’s more, the Reds are on an absolutely horrid run of form, so I don’t expect that to change tonight.
Thanks to both of these teams’ inability to get runs on the board, I think you need to go with the under. On MyBookies, the over/under currently sits at 9.5 runs (-110/-110). I think the under is the smart bet, and if you look at Thursday night’s 4-1 scoreline in favor of the Marlins, you can see why I am thinking this way.
MyBookie is offering an alternate point spread that sees the Marlins listed as +1.5 underdogs (-195). Though the -195 odds are not the best you will find, I think this is as close to a sure thing that you will get in this game. The Marlins are the stronger of the two teams and are sending out a pitcher that might not be overly proven in the starting role, but has proven himself as a reliever.