Marlins Keen On Avoiding Sweep in Chicago
The Chicago Cubs may be defending World Series Champions, however their 2017 campaign got off to a less than stellar start. Through the first 2 months of the season, the Cubs struggled to find consistency week in and week out. With a 6-game losing streak to finish May—spanning series sweeps at the hands of both the Dodgers and Padres—things were looking dire for the Cubs. Now, the boys from Wrigley are sporting a 5-game winning streak and are looking to make it 2 consecutive series sweeps when they take on Miami for the 3rd game in a 3-game series.
The Marlins call a particularly weak NL Eastern division their home, and in one of MLB’s weakest divisions they are hardly a strong team. Right now, the Marlins are sitting back 13 games from division leaders Washington, and things really just do not look good at all. Miami’s baseball team is not only on the lower half of team batting statistics, they are one of the worst pitching teams in the entire league. It does not take a rocket scientist to tell you that they are set up to lose most nights. Against the now streaking Cubs, things are not looking very good for the Marlins.
Pitching, Batting Matchup
As you well know, one of the biggest determinants for how a baseball game is going to go is how the pitchers match up against opposing batters as well as their pitching counterpart. Tonight’s matchup sees the Cubs’ John Lackey facing off against the Marlin’s Jose Urena. The name John Lackey is typically associated with lights-out performances, but the 2017 season has not seen that norm play out.
Through 11 games started so far this season, Lackey is currently resting on a losing record of 4-5 and has an ERA of 4.90. Considering his career average is only 3.90, it is clear to see that he has gotten off to a poor start.
In Urena’s 6 starts this year, he has accrued an ERA of 3.80 and a 3-2 record. Technically listed as a relief pitcher, Urena has recently come on and done well in the starting rotation for the Marlins. Considering the Cubs’ firepower the last 2 games (13 runs combined), Urena might be just the person to cool down the Chicago bats.
Speaking of the Chicago batting lineup, they have been doing quite well as of late, averaging almost 6 runs per game over their last 5 games. Urena will need to keep complete control over the pitches he throws this Cubs team, because as we learned last year, they can capitalize on even the smallest mistakes (see: 2016 World Series). According to ESPN, Urena is 2-0 in his last 2 starts, but has earned a more than an 8 ERA during those two starts. The Cubs are middle of MLB as far as overall batting statistics go, but their recent results have seen the overall trend begin moving upward.
With regard to the Marlins, they are near the bottom of the table as far as batting statistics go. Add this to the fact that their schedule has been relatively easy thus far and they are not looking like they will become an offensive powerhouse anytime in the near future. To put this in perspective, the Marlins have scored more than 2 runs in only 2 of their last 11 games. That is a pretty dismal record.
Game Prediction
Despite Lackey’s poor performance thus far this season, he and his Cubs are still heavily favored by BetOnline, at -198. Urena and the Marlins, however, are +184. The fact that the Marlins are away from home does not do them any favors, as the Cubs have perhaps the best home field advantage in all of baseball. The Cubs are 19-11 so far this season at home, and have fared particularly well against teams that are as weak as the Marlins.
We don’t love the -198 odds on the Cubs, but feel as though that is the most intelligent wager to place. The team has been streaking lately, and the Marlins are, by no means, a strong team. Add all of this to the fact that John Lackey is due for a dominant performance, and all signs are pointing towards a Cubs victory.
Speaking to the other end of the spectrum, the +184 odds for a Marlins victory do not stand out as particularly valuable If that number were +250 or higher, we might suggest taking a risk on the Marlins to prevent the sweep, but it simply does not look very likely.