Mets Heavily Favored to Continue Hot Streak
Who: Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets
When: Friday June 30th, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: Citi Park—New York, New York
When New York and Philadelphia meet at Citi Park on Friday, both sides will be looking to build on what has been a solid past week and a half. While, only a short while ago it appeared as though the Mets’ season, much like that of the Phillies, was over even before the halfway point. Now, there is renewed hopes that the Mets still have a chance of being post-season contenders.
The Mets will enter their first home game in more than a week having won 5 of their last 6 on the road, including a recent 6-3 win in Miami. The Phillies will continue their 9-game journey on the road coming off of 2 wins in a row in Seattle. For many, the Phillies’ 2 wins in Seattle hurt the Mariners more than you might think, and the feeling is that if they can do the same to the Mets if they take even 2 games from this 3-game series.
Pitching Overview and Game Analysis
Ben Lively (1-2 3.90 ERA) is not having a great rookie season when you look at his stats, but when you consider that he plays for the Philadelphia Phillies, everything begins to make sense. Though most of their poor record can be blamed on an abundance of youth, the Phillies (+215) are still one of the worst teams in MLB. As for how Lively has worked, he hasn’t given himself much help. In each of his last 4 outings the rookie has given up at least 3 earned runs and has earned 2 losses and 2 no decisions in that run. Add this to the fact that the Phillies offense did not muster more than 3 runs in 3 of those 4 outings, and it makes sense that Lively has a losing record. Against the Mets’ offense he will not be facing any huge sluggers, but that does not mean he will be any more effective than he has been up to this point.
On the mound for the Mets (-255) will be Jacob deGrom (7-3 3.71 ERA). deGrom is much different than Lively thanks to the fact that he has a winning record as well as a better ERA. It is easy to see why he is considered to be an ace, even though he still needs to win 3 games in order to reach the 10 win tally. It is important that we do not forget that the Mets, like the Phillies, have a tough time putting runs across the plate. In one of deGrom’s recent losses his offense was only able to muster one run. As a pitcher, it is always going to be difficult to win if your offense is as ineffective as the Mets have been.
Though the moneyline offered by Bovada may be extremely lopsided, I do not think that this is as one-sided a matchup as the odds might lead you to believe it is.
Betting Prediction
As far as who is going to win this game outright, the moneyline you have to go with is the Mets (-255). By just looking at the pitching matchup alone, it is more than obvious that the Mets have the upper hand. Add to this the fact that the Mets have won 5 of their last 6 and I am not really giving the Phillies much of any chance in this one.
A decent value bet that you can find on Bovada is with regard to the Mets’ team over/under. Right now, the over/under is listed at 5.5 runs (+115/-145) and I truly believe the Mets can score 6 or more. Lively is prone to giving up runs, and the Phillies’ bullpen is nothing to write home about. If the Mets can hit Lively for 3 or 4 runs (which opposing teams have done in each of his last 4 starts), I think they can tack on another 3 to 4 once the bullpen is called into action.
To be honest, there are plenty of solid bets, but not a large amount of wagers that offer much of any value. With regard to the spread, the Mets are -1.5 run favorites (-130). Of all the wagers being offered by Bovada on this game, this is one of the best as far as value is concerned. Despite us touting the Mets as some superior team to the Phillies, it is important to remember that, in the grand scheme of things, both these teams are still poor and their play is often unpredictable. Still, I think a wager on the Mets -1.5 (-130) is a solid one to make. With the way Lively gives up runs combined with the fact that the Mets have been on a solid run in recent weeks, I think it is going to happen.