Mexico Favored to Advance Out of Group A
Who: Mexico v. Russia
When: Saturday June 24th, 2017 11:00AM EST
Where: Kazan Arena—Kazan, Russia
With Portugal (-1400) heavy favorites against New Zealand in a match that kicks off at the same time, Mexico v. Russia will decide who joins the Portuguese in the semifinals of the 2017 Confederations Cup. Right now, the Mexicans are sitting on 4 points thanks to a win and a draw, while Russia are sitting on just 3 after they defeated New Zealand and were defeated by Portugal. A win for the hosts would see them into the semifinals to face either Chile or Germany.
Something Russia has had through their first 2 matches that other teams have not is home field advantage. No matter where they are playing, the fact that this year’s tournament is being hosted by Russia means that they will always receive a good boost from the crowd. Something that must be noted is that the Russians are reportedly feeling fatigue from the pressure their nation is putting on them, and that may impact Saturday’s match. Mexico, a team that thrive on their own home fields, will be put to the test by both the noisy conditions and a Russian team that appears to be coming out of their defensive shell that has taken up most of the last 7 years. No matter what, we are in for an exciting match as neither team can afford to sit back and wait for the game to come to them.
Team Analysis and Match Overview
In their first match with New Zealand, Russia (+205) managed to do something that they have seldom done over the course of the last few years—net more than a single goal. To put in perspective just how big of a feat that was, in all of 2016 (12 matches), Russia managed to score more than one goal on just 3 occasions. For years now, the Russian National Team has been defensive-minded, and this shows in their scorelines. While they do have a competent defense that boasts a larger stature than most opponents, you need to score goals to win matches. Having been held to a 1-0 scoreline in their loss at the hands of Portugal, Russian fans are going to look for their team to come out of the gates looking to score goals. Understanding that this puts Russia in a position they are, for lack of a better term, uncomfortable with, the match plan will be drastically different from what we usually see from the Eastern Europeans.
If Russia’s defense was looking for a challenge, that is exactly what they are going to get in Mexico (+125). The Mexicans have score 2 goals in both Group A matches in this year’s tournament, and play a style of football that matches up well against Russia. With pace, flare, and tactical togetherness, Mexico will look to both build possession and attack via the flanks, and will also be looking to attack on the break, where they are especially dangerous. Being that Russia needs to earn a victory in order to advance (assuming Portugal will take care of New Zealand), they are going to need to play attack-first football. Pushing men forward is something that Mexico will look to take advantage of.
Betting Prediction
A wager that is on Bovada that sticks out to me right away is the 2.5 goal over/under (EVEN/-125). Russia do not score goals and are halfway decent at avoiding conceding them. Add this to the fact that Mexico are not necessarily in need of all 3 points, and you have a situation that lends itself to the under (-125). With the odds where they are at currently, you have a good chance of winning that wager. If the half goal is worrying you, Bovada also has an alternative over/under of 3 (+185/-225), and though the odds are not the best, the bet is a wise one. No matter what way you flip it, it is difficult to envision this match being a high-scoring one.
Another wager I like is a segment bet for the first half. A wager that the first half will end in a draw is currently listed at +110 on Bovada. The way I see it, Russia needs to come out of the gates attacking. Being that they are not the most potent of attacking sides, and that Mexico are organized in defense, a 0-0 halftime score seems likely. Even if Russia does net an unlikely first goal, Mexico are more than capable of equalizing before the halftime interval.
I truly think, despite Russia’s need for a victory, that Mexico is going to steal this one. As such, instead of a moneyline wager that pays at +125, I think your better bet is to pick Bovada’s alternate spread that sees Mexico half-goal favorites (-.5 +140). The +140 odds are better than what Bovada is offering on the moneyline, and you are essentially wagering the same thing. Mexico are the superior team in this matchup, and I think that by the time the dust settles that will be apparent on the scoreboard as well.