MLB Baseball Betting for August 1, 2016
The first day of August offers a short card of Major League Baseball with only eight games on the board. It is the MLB trade deadline so you can expect all kinds of hi-jinks between now and 4 PM Eastern. On Sunday, catcher Jonathan Lucroy vetoed a proposed trade to the Cleveland Indians–they were one of eight teams on his ‘no trade’ list so pending another deal with a team that he’ll approve he’s still a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Indians were undeterred, and went on to acquire left handed pitcher Andrew Miller from the New York Yankees. The Yankees get back four players including minor league prospects outfielder Clint Frazier and pitcher Justus Sheffield who are supposedly two of the Indians top three prospects. Given that the Yankees have traded away two of the best relief pitchers in the game over the past week it’s a pretty clear indication that they’ll be ‘selling’ at the trade deadline. The Yankees have now lost 4 straight and 6 of 10 leaving them 7 games behind the first place Baltimore Orioles. There are plenty of indications that there will be more deals to come between now and the deadline. The only other deal of any significance as of 9:00 PM Eastern on Sunday was the Baltimore Orioles acquiring left hander Wade Miley from the Seattle Mariners.
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR AUGUST 1, 2016:
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
The Washington Nationals split a four game series with the San Francisco Giants over the weekend but they need wins. They’ve lost 6 of 10 and have seen the Miami Marlins’ close to within 4 games of the lead. The New York Mets are 6.5 games back. The good news is that for a team that needs wins there are few better places to be than in Arizona facing the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have the second worst home record in baseball–one game ‘better’ than the Atlanta Braves at 17-35 -24.2 units. Arizona went into the toilet in the month of July going 7-17 -9.2 units for the month. They’ve also struggled badly against right handed pitchers going 29-47 -16.2 units. Given these miserable statistics it’s not a surprise that the team is in last place in the NL West 2 games behind the fourth place San Diego Padres and 18 games back of the division leading San Francisco Giants.
As if the Nationals needed another ‘edge’ over the bottom feeding Diamondbacks they’ll send Stephen Strasburg to the mound. Strasburg was back in excellent form one game after his first loss of the season–he dominated the Cleveland Indians on July 27 going 7 innings allowing just 3 hits and no earned runs with 7 strikeouts and two walks.
Arizona will counter with right hander Archie Bradley and he’s pitched fairly well of late. Arizona has won two of his last three and he’s put up a Strasburg-esque performacne against the Milwaukee Brewers on July 27 going 7 innings allowing just 1 earned run on 4 hits. Like the rest of the Diamondbacks, he’s struggled at home putting up a 5.15 ERA with Arizona losing 4 of his 6 starts. Washington has dominated Arizona over the last three years going 10-4 +4.9 units.
BET WASHINGTON NATIONALS -180 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS AT SAN DIEGO PADRES:
The Milwaukee Brewers have been on a decent run lately and swept the Pittsburgh Pirates at home over the weekend. The Pirates absolutely *hate* Miller Park–Pittsburgh is now 17-64 on the Brewers’ home field since 2007. The roles could be switched for the Brewers on Monday as they head West to take on the San Diego Padres in a three game series. Milwaukee has been horrible on the road this year going 17-31 -9.4 units. San Diego hasn’t been great at home but they have scrapped out a small profit (25-26 +3.6 units).
Milwaukee may be active at the trade deadline–as we noted at the outset, they’ve been trying to trade catcher Jonathan Lucroy but on Sunday he vetoed a trade that would have sent him to the Cleveland Indians. Apparently some other teams are in play and with this game not scheduled until 10:10 Eastern we’ll know if Lucroy is still a member of the Milwaukee Brewers well before start time. The Brewers will start right hander Jimmy Nelson for this game and he’s been the epitome of ‘mediocre’ this year. Nelson has a 3.64 ERA overall but the Brewers have won only 9 of his 21 starts. On the road, he’s got a 4.50 ERA with Milwaukee winning only 4 of 9 starts. They’ve also dropped 2 of his last 3 with Nelson putting up a 4.32 ERA and a 1.560 WHIP.
San Diego will start recently acquired Jarred Cosart–in fact, this will be Cosart’s first start for the Padres. Cosart was sent West in the deal that send Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea to the Miami Marlins. Rea looked good in his Marlins debut as he sent down 11 of the first 12 batters but had to leave early with elbow soreness and is listed as ‘day to day’. Cosart’s YTD numbers don’t look like much–that’s why he was sent down to the minor leagues at the end of April. He didn’t overwhelm at the minor league level but looked good in his return to the bigs on July 25–he went 5 innings allowing just 3 hits and 0 earned runs while striking out 3 and walking just won as the Marlins beat Philadelphia 4-0. He could benefit greatly from playing in the Padres’ ‘pitchers’ park’.
The head to head between these teams has been fairly even. Milwaukee has won 10 of 17 meetings over the past three years but have a 3-3 record in San Diego. The teams split four games at Miller Park earlier this season. After the sweep of the Pirates the Brewers have to be feeling a little too good about themselves and we have no interest in backing them given their road struggles and struggles against RHP this year. Cosart could have a big game in his debut facing a team that only hits .246 and averages 3.6 runs per game against right handed pitching. Even the Padres’ paltry offensive numbers are better than that–they average 4.4 runs per game overall, 4.1 runs per at home and 4 runs per game against RHP.
BET SAN DIEGO PADRES -110 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS