MLB Baseball Betting for August 15, 2016
Short card in Major League Baseball for Monday with only ten games on the board.
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR AUGUST 15, 2016:
MIAMI MARLINS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
The Miami Marlins have lost Giancarlo Stanton for the season with a severe groin strain. To replace his bat in the lineup is no easy feat–Stanton has 25 homers and 70 RBI in 103 games this season. There is a very intriguing option–a recently released veteran who is just 4 home runs short of 700. That would be Alex Rodriguez, who wasn’t particularly pleased with the bum’s rush he got from the New York Yankees. He’s supposed to move into a ‘special advisor’ role next season–translated, they’re going to find something for him to do since they’re on the hook for $20 million for 2017.
That storyline should keep the media busy for awhile but there’s a game to be played here. It’s a significant game for both teams. For the Marlins they’ve got to pick up ground on the NL East leading Washington Nationals. Miami has been treading water of late and will enter play 8.5 games back of the Washington Nationals. The Nats have won 7 of 10 and are in very good form. The Marlins can’t ignore the teams behind them either–they’re just 2 games ahead of the New York Mets and a mere six games up on the Philadelphia Phillies (who’ve won four straight). Not exactly the best situation. The Marlins are just 1/2 game out of the final NL wild card spot but they’ve got plenty of company. The Dodgers are 3.5 games up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the top spot. After that a total of three games separate the Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates and Mets. Four teams with only one spot between them doesn’t exactly install the Marlins with confidence (these records are pending the outcome of the Cards’ Sunday night game against the Cubs).
The Reds have a bit of pride to play for. After being one of the real dumpster fires in Major League Baseball during the first half of the season they’ve done a nice job in the second half. With the Atlanta Braves seeming to have the ‘inside track’ on the worst record in the league the Reds don’t have to worry about that ignominious distinction. They’ve even got a realistic shot to avoid last place in the NL Central. They’re just 4 games back of the fourth place Milwaukee Brewers.
Miami will start right hander David Phelps who has only started two games this season and looked pretty good. Miami is 1-1 in those games but Phelps has a tidy 0.96 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. The Reds will start lefthander Brandon Finnigan who has been mediocre overall this season but has looked good in his most recent assignments. On the season, Cincinnati has lost 14 of his 23 games and 7 of 11 at home. Finnigan has put up a 4.45 ERA and 1.400 WHIP overall with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.245 WHIP at home. His most recent starts are a different matter–the Reds won all three games of his most recent assignments with Finnegan putting up a 1.50 ERA and a 1.167 WHIP. The Marlins have been solid against lefthanders this season going 19-8. Word in the street is that Finnegan’s future role with the Reds is up in the air and that could provide some motivation. Or else it could cause him to ‘play tight’. The Reds generally like Finnigan but are still undecided about where he’d be the best fit–as a starter or as a late inning ‘set up man’ reliever.
The Marlins could be shellshocked while the figure out what to do with the Stanton/A-Rod situation. The Reds are an easy team to overlook but they’ve played hard in the second half.
BET CINCINNATI REDS +115 OVER MIAMI MARLINS
NEW YORK METS AT ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
We eluded to the Mets’ situation in the previous writeup. Like the Marlins, they’re 4-6 in their last 10 games and really need to string some wins together if they’re going to make a run at the Washington Nationals atop the NL East. New York is also in the mix for the final NL Wild Card spot 2.5 games back of St. Louis.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are going nowhere. They’ll likely finish in last place in the NL West. The San Diego Padres are just two games ahead but have exerted a more consistent effort than the D-Backs. Arizona has been miserable at home. Arizona is 19-39 -26.5 units at Chase Field and are 33-53 -17.4 units against right handers. Ouch. Arizona is a more capable team on the road and actually swept the Mets at CitiField last week. The story for the Mets was partly the usual refrain (poor hitting) and a poor showing by their pitching staff. That’s really the only explanation for the Diamondbacks being favored in this spot despite having the second worst home record in baseball (Atlanta is 18-39 at Turner Field).
New York is 14-15 -2.4 units against left handers this season but statistically they’re no worse against southpaws than in all games. The Mets don’t hit anyone well, but they have no special liability against left handed pitchers. Of course Arizona starter Ricky Ray is no Sandy Koufax. Arizona has lost 16 of his 23 starts for a -10.5 unit loss including 7 of 11 at home. Overall, he’s got a 4.50 ERA with a 5.25 ERA at home and a 4.82 L3 ERA.
Right hander Bartolo Colon gets the start for the Mets and he’s been solid and consistent all year–3.38 ERA overall, 3.29 ERA on the road, 3.37 ERA in his last three starts. New York is 14-9 +5.1 units overall in his starts including 7-4 on the road. At the end of the day there’s no way I’m going to lay a chalk price with one of the worst home teams in Major League baseball against a team with a decent shot at making the postseason.
BET NEW YORK METS +115 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS