MLB Baseball Betting for August 21, 2016
No NFL preseason action this Sunday so we’ll focus on baseball. The good news–only 53 days until the start of the NHL hockey season!:
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR AUGUST 21, 2016:
(Note–all records are pending Saturday’s results unless noted otherwise)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
It doesn’t seem as if anyone wants to win the NL West. Right now the Dodgers and Giants are tied for first place by virtue of Saturday’ San Francisco loss (9-5 to the Mets). At this writing the Cincinnati Reds are thumping the Dodgers in Saturday’s game (7-0 Redlegs in the bottom of the 5th). Should that result hold the Giants will be back in first by 1/2 game at the close of business. And so much for ‘pennant race urgency’. The Giants have been slumping since right after the All Star Break and the Dodgers will be looking at 3 straight losses unless they mount a fierce comeback. L.A. has the best L10 game record in the NL West at 5-5. Every other team in the division is 4-6 in their last 10. The Padres and Diamondbacks are likely done for the year (15.5 and 17.5 games out of first respectively) but it might be a bit too early to shovel dirt on the Colorado Rockies. It’s somewhat inexplicable, but the Rockies have played fairly well in the second half and find themselves just 8.5 games out of first. They’ve won three straight and with the Dodgers and Giants both vulnerable a winning streak at the right time could put the Rockies right into contention.
Los Angeles deserves credit for continuing to scrap despite an unprecedented number of injuries this season. The pitching staff has been hit particularly hard. On Saturday’s injury report there were 14 Dodgers listed. 13 of the 14 were on either the 15 or 60 day disabled list. 10 of the 13 Dodgers on the disabled list are pitchers. Los Angeles has had to find every semi-healthy arm in the organization just to have a warm body on the mound for every game. That’s a large part of why the Dodgers have a 6.75 team ERA so far in August. Sunday’s starter is scheduled to be 20 year old Julio Urias who is definitely a ‘work in progress’ but has shown a lot in his 10 starts this season. For one thing, the Dodgers have won 7 of his 10 assignments though they’ve got a 2-3 record when he starts on the road. They’ve also won his last three assignments. He’s done well despite splitting time between Los Angeles and Triple A Oklahoma City. His last three starts came on 8/8, 7/21 and 7/4 and despite having no opportunity to develop any rhythm he allowed only 2 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts. He’s on a strict pitch count this season and the Dodgers should be commended for sticking to that when they’ve got every reason not to. His overall ERA numbers aren’t particularly impressive but he’s got a 3.07 ERA in his last four starts. Urias could be very good very quickly if he starts to put together the intangibles that Major League pitcher’s need–he’s got plenty of talent. He may also get the opportunity for more starts as the Los Angeles Times reported on Saturday that Hyun-Jin Ryu is likely done for the year.
It’s hard to figure out what is going on in Cincinnati. Over the past few seasons, the team has been ‘sellers’ at the trade deadline just about every year and they never look like they have a cohesive plan in place. I guess that’s evident from their performance on the field in 2014 (lost 86 games) and 2015 (lost 98 games). It seems almost forever ago that the Reds were good but they reached the playoffs in 2013 and won the NL Central in 2010 and 2012. At the deadline this year it looked especially hopeless. The team reportedly didn’t know whether to trade their most capable pitchers–Anthony Desclafani (who gets the start here) and Homer Bailey for nebulous ‘prospects’ or keep them and build the rotation around them. Whether it was trying to build for the future or just a lack of options at the deadline both Desclafani and Bailey are still with the team. The Reds ended the first half of the season with a record of 32-57 but has been a very competitive team since then:
The Reds’ collective second-half ERA is 3.56, which is fifth-best in baseball and third-best in the National League. If you’re wondering how the Reds dropped 57 games in the first half, it has to start with the team’s 5.46 ERA. It was the worst in all of baseball.
The first-half offense wasn’t as bad as the pitching. The 376 runs scored before the break wasn’t outstanding, but it was good for tenth-best in the NL. But post All-Star Break, the Reds are tied with the Chicago Cubs — yes, the golden standard of the National League — in runs scored. The 152 runs scored in the second half is fourth-best in the NL.
The Reds’ team WAR of 4.6 is fifth-best in the NL over the last 30 days, behind what is pretty much the top of the NL’s playoff picture. In fact, the St. Louis Cardinals, owners of the second wild card slot right now, have a team WAR of just 2.7.
As of Friday, Cincinnati had the second best record since the break in the National League. Desclafani has been a big part of that with his consistency and solid performance. He’s really excelled at home where the Reds are 5-0 in his starts and he’s got a 2.12 ERA, a 1.088 WHIP and 24 strikeouts to just 3 walks. Cincinnati isn’t good against LHP averaging 3.4 runs per game and hitting .229 which has translated to a 8-17 -6.7 record against southpaws. Urais is talented but erratic and has gone more than 5 innings only twice this season averaging 4.5 innings per start. It sure didn’t look like Cincinnati had any problems hitting LHP last night as they chased Brett Anderson after 3 innings having given up 6 ER and 9 hits (the official reason for his departure was explained as a ‘blister’). You could make a case for L.A. to ‘avoid the sweep’ but the Reds have won 8 of their last 10 series and Desclafani in particular won’t ‘phone it in’. We’ll gladly take the Reds with Desclafani as a small home dog.
BET CINCINNATI REDS +120 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS