MLB Baseball Betting for August 31, 2016
The last day of August and a full card of baseball with some more important divisional matchups:
TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
The Toronto Blue Jays just can’t have nice things. They’ve generally played well this year but when they’ve been in a position to really open up an advantage in the AL East they just don’t get it done. That was the case on Tuesday when they lost 5-3 to the Orioles. The good news is that Boston also lost as their bullpen pours some gas on the fire once again and Tampa Bay beats them 4-3. So as of close of business on Tuesday the Jays lead the division by 2 games over the second place Red Sox. The Orioles are one game back of Boston in third place, 3 games behind the first play Jays. And lest we forget the New York Yankees are still alive and 7 games out of first. Toronto has won 6 of 10 and Baltimore has split their last ten games.
In many ways this game looks like ‘deja vu all over again’ except we’ve got a right hander on the mound for the Blue Jays. Aaron Sanchez will get the start and he’s been solid all year but no so much as of late. For the year, Sanchez has a 3.05 ERA with a 1.164 WHIP, on the road his ERA improves to 2.80 with a 1.119 WHIP and in his last three balloons to 5.29 with a 1.353 WHIP. The Jays have won 15 of his 24 starts this season including 8 of 13 on the road and 2 of his last 3.
The Orioles will start right hander Yovani Gallardo who is coming off a horrible game against the New York Yankees. Really, ‘horrible’ doesn’t do it justice. It was at Yankee Stadium on 8/26 and he went just 1 1/3 innings allowing 7 earned runs. Overall, he’s got a 5.69 ERA with a 1.647 WHIP, a 3.69 ERA with a 1.513 WHIP at home and a 8.78 ERA with a 1.950 WHIP in his last three games. The Jays have split his 18 starts this season with a 5-2 record at home and an 0-3 record in his last 3. He hasn’t been as bad in the other two games of the L3 stretch going 11 innings and allowing 6 earned runs. He won’t win a Cy Young award that way but you can’t characterize them as ‘horrible’ either.
Ultimately, the salient component of the handicap on this game is the same as it was yesterday. Baltimore is a *real* good home team. Only the Chicago Cubs have won more games at home than the Orioles. Toronto is a decent road team (35-29 +1.6 units) but the Orioles have dominated at Camden Yards with a record of 53-25 +16.2 units. Simply put, they’re undervalued at home and Toronto has no business being a -150 favorite here. Baltimore has been a home dog in this price range only 3 times previously this year–once was yesterday–and are 2-1 +1.8 units in that spot.
BET BALTIMORE ORIOLES +130 OVER TORONTO BLUE JAYS
SAN DIEGO PADRES AT ATLANTA BRAVES:
Not exactly the MLB Network’s marquee game of the night here. Two teams that are nowhere near the Mendoza Line that only have one tangible goal left for the 2016 MLB season–to avoid finishing last. San Diego is neck and neck with Arizona for the worst record in the NL West. In fact, the two teams were tied at the time of this writing on Tuesday but the Diamondbacks were leading San Francisco 4-1 in the top of the sixth. An Arizona win would put the Padres in last place by 1/2 a game. And as miraculous as it sounds the Atlanta Braves have a decent chance of *not* finishing with the worst record in baseball. Atlanta has split their last 10 games while Minnesota has lost 12 straight. Both teams now have identical 49-83 records after Atlanta’s 7-3 win on Tuesday and Minnesota’s loss to Cleveland.
The Padres will go with right hander Paul Clemens who has completely marginal this season. Overall, he’s got a 5.54 ERA with a 1.539 WHIP, a 5.40 ERA with a 1.400 WHIP on the road and a L3 ERA of 5.87 with a 1.696 WHIP. San Diego has split his 8 starts this season including 2 road starts. They have won 2 of his last 3. The Braves will counter with right hander Matt Wisler who has been the personification of ‘mediocre’ this year. Wisler has a 4.95 ERA overall with a 1.302 WHIP, a 4.79 ERA with a 1.345 WHIP at home and a last three ERA of 6.38 with a 1.146 ERA.
The Braves have been horrible this year but to their credit they’ve never quit. That mentality will pay dividends down the stretch and especially as they try to avoid finishing with the worst record in baseball. They open a new stadium out in Cobb County next year and they’d much rather the fans remember this season for the pluck they showed late and not for being the worst team in the big leagues.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES -125 OVER SAN DIEGO PADRES