MLB Baseball Betting for July 18, 2016
A short card on Monday after a busy weekend of baseball action:
MIAMI MARLINS AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
This is a big series for the Phillies. They need to start making a move if they’re going to catch the ‘lead pack’ of contenders in the NL East. They’re still 7 games under .500 but the Phillies turnaround is arguably the most impressive of the baseball season. Atlanta’s winning run in late June is starting to look like a ‘dead cat bounce‘. Pittsburgh has enjoyed a nice turnaround as well but that’s just a case of a very talented team figuring out how to win again. Philadelphia was a dumpster fire and went through a stretch of late May/early to mid June when they went on a 4-24 run. They’ve won consistently since that streak ended and that is impressive both from the players and manager Pete Mackanin.
So here’s the situation for Philadelphia. They’re 13 games out of first place but just 7 back of the two teams tied for second place. They lost 2 of 3 over the weekend to one of them, the New York Mets including a 1 hit loss to Jacob Degrom on Sunday. They’ve now got four games against the *other* second place team, the Miami Marlins. Miami has won 7 of 10 but three of the wins were against lowly Cincinnati in the final series before the All Star Break. They did just take two of three from St. Louis so there’s that.
Obviously, this series is a bigger deal for the Phillies than the Marlins who have a decent margin for error. Philadelphia needs to start winning games in bunches if they’ve got any hope of thinking about the playoffs. They may not have it in them and digging a 4-24 hole is a tough thing to overcome. They could be content with finishing over .500 which would be a nice accomplishment after 4 straight seasons of .500 or above. It would also be a nice bit of job security for manager Pete Mackanin who has a team option for 2017.
Philadelphia will start Aaron Nola and he’s most definitely enduring a ‘sophomore slump’. He isn’t expected to be a ‘shutdown’ starter but he’s greatly underachieved by any metric. The Phillies have lost 10 of his 17 starts overall this season including 6 of 8 at home (-4.9 units). He’s been terrible in his last three games–all Phillies losses. In his last three games he has 11.3 innings pitched or an average of 3.8 innings per start with 17 earned runs and 23 hits. He did strike out 13 while walking 4. Nola is just 23 years old in in just his second season in the Majors so he’ll stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future.
The Marlins will respond with right hander Jose Fernandez who has pitched well this year. He has been better at home than on the road. Overall, Fernandez has a 2.52 ERA and a 1.015 WHIP. The Marlins have won 12 of his 17 starts overall but here’s the problem–they’re 8-2 in his home starts meaning that they’ve got a money losing 4-3 -1.4 unit loss when he takes the ball on the road. He’s a good pitcher but he sure looks to be overvalued at this point. That’s something you’ve got to consider when a team wins 2 of 3 of his starts but still manages to lose more than 1/2 unit.
Price on Miami is just too high. We’ll back the Phillies and the ‘Over’.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +190 OVER MIAMI MARLINS
BET PHILADELPHIA/MIAMI OVER 7′ +110
BALTIMORE ORIOLES AT NEW YORK YANKEES:
The Yankees might finally be facing the reality that they’re not a playoff team. General Manager Brian Cashman put them on notice during the All Star Break and manager Joe Girardi echoed that message. The team responded by dropping the first two games out of the break to the hated Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. At the time of this writing they were trying to scrap out a win in the finale (up 3-1 in the 8th) but that might be too little too late. The word in the NY media was that the Yankees’ brass was split on whether the team would be ‘buying’ or ‘selling’ with the trade deadline approaching. While the management could go either way this series should make it obvious that they need to be ‘selling’ and trying to get some younger players in key positions. The pitching staff needs a little work as well though Masahiro Tanaka is just entering his prime.
Baltimore will start Kevin Gausman in this game and he’s dominated the Yankees throughout his career. His team has a record of 5-2 when he starts against New York and Gausman has put up a 1.93 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. He’s already faced the Yankees twice this season with two Baltimore wins and only 1 earned run allowed in 14 innings of work. Yankees’ starter Ivan Nova isn’t in good form with an ERA over 5.
BET BALTIMORE ORIOLES -120 OVER NEW YORK YANKEES