MLB Baseball Betting for July 19, 2016
Full card of Major League Baseball action for Tuesday:
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL BETTING FOR JULY 19, 2016:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES:
This game looks obvious at first glance. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been playing well of late and hold down third place in the NL Central just 1/2 game back of the St. Louis Cardinals (pending the outcome of Monday action) and 9 games back of the Chicago Cubs. The Milwaukee Brewers have lost 6 of 10 and are 16 games back of the Cubs and 7 back of the third place Pirates. They’ve also been horrible on the road with a record of 16-29 -8.8 units.
What makes this a tricky game is the pitching matchups. Milwaukee will start right hander Junior Guerra who has been excellent this year. The 31 year old rookie(!) was given extra rest coming out of the All Star Break so he should be raring to go as he makes his first start of the second half. The Venezuelan native has started 13 games this season and the Brewers have a 10-3 record when he takes the mound. That’s phenomenal for a team that has only won 39 games all season and means that Guerra has started over 25% of the Brewers victories this season (25.6% to be exact). Overall he’s got a 3.06 ERA and a 1.069 WHIP. On the road, his ERA is 3.44 with a 1.037 WHIP and the Brewers have won all six of his away starts. He’s been very sharp in his last three starts, two of which were Brewers’ wins. In those games he’s got a 1.29 ERA and a 0.857 WHIP.
Pittsburgh will start righthander Jameson Taillon and in all fairness it’s hard to properly assess his 2016 performance since he was struggling through an injury for much of the early part of the season. Taillon is definitely a ‘project’. He’s just 24 years old but has already had Tommy John and hernia surgeries. He didn’t pitch at all in 2014 or 2015 at any level of baseball. He started five games for the Pirates earlier this season and was largely ineffective. Ironically, his best performance was his final game before going on to the disabled list as he went 6 innings against Seattle allowing just 6 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 6 and walking none. Taillon then went on the DL with right shoulder fatigue. He reportedly feels really good physically (though what else *would* he say coming off the DL?) and is ready to go. Taillon will get a spot in the rotation for now–he has a lot of upside potential. He needs to develop a third pitch and learn to get hitters out consistently with his fastball and curveball. The big ‘plus’ with Taillon is his excellent control. Major League pitchers usually start with great stuff and need to develop control so he’s a very intriguing pitching prospect.
Pittsburgh is the better team but just can’t pass up Guerra who may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball right now.
BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS +115 OVER PITTSBURGH PIRATES
LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS:
Another interesting and potentially important series with a screwy pitching matchup for Game 1. The Nationals are currently atop the NL Central with a 6 game lead over the Miami Marlins and a 6.5 game lead over the New York Mets. They’ve been in decent form of late (won 6 of 10) and although both the Marlins and Mets have been playing fairly well the Nationals have done a good job at keeping them in the rear view mirror. The Dodgers are 5.5 games out of first place in the NL West. They’ve been playing good baseball since before the All Star Break but just haven’t been able to cut into the San Francisco Giants’ lead atop the division. It seems like they’ve been a half dozen or so games back for months.
Los Angeles will start journeyman lefthander Steve Kazmir who hasn’t been especially effective this season. His personal W/L record looks a lot better than his team’s W/L record when he starts. Overall, Kazmir is 7-3 but the Dodgers are just 10-8 in his 18 starts. On the road he’s 3-0 but the Dodgers are 4-4. They have won Kazmir’s last 4 starts so even though his ERA is in the 4.50 range (and 5.40 on the road). The bottom line is that the Dodgers feel they have a chance to win when he’s on the hill.
Washington was scheduled to start Gio Gonzalez here but they’ve moved the struggling lefthander’s start back to Tuesday. That pushes Stephen Strasburg’s next start back to Wednesday. On Tuesday, Reynaldo Lopez will make his Major League debut. Lopez started the season in AA before a promotion and with the middle part of the Nationals’ rotation struggling they figured they might as well give him a shot. The book on Lopez is similar to many other young pitchers–he reportedly has Major League stuff and three pitches but has problems with his ‘command and control’. The move to call him up and put him in the rotation might be a case of learning on the job–he’ll be in a clubhouse with Major League pitchers including a couple of the best in the game at ‘Command and Control’ in Strasburg and Max Scherzer.
Kazmir is nothing special but the downside risk with him seems to be lower. He’s not likely to dominate but he’s not likely to ‘blow up’ either. Who knows what you’ll get with Lopez?
BET LOS ANGELES DODGERS +105 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS