MLB Baseball Betting for July 26, 2016
Full card of baseball action for Tuesday:
MLB BASEBALL FOR JULY 26, 2016:
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT NEW YORK METS (GAME TWO):
The first game of this series was rained out on Monday meaning the teams will play a doubleheader today. The first game (with Monday’s Martinez vs. Syndergaard pitching matchup) will go at 4:10 PM with this game going at 7:10 PM. Since the Game One matchup is the same we’ll reprint our writeup of it below.
In Game Two (the regularly scheduled Tuesday game) the Cardinals will start lefthander Jaime Garcia against the Mets’ Bartolo Colon who has been off form of late. Garcia is typically a dependable and capable pitcher but he’s been decidedly mediocre this season. He’s got a 3.98 ERA and a 1.363 WHIP overall but the Cardinals have only won 10 of his 19 starts. They have won 6 of his 8 road starts though Garcia’s numbers haven’t been especially good away from the Gateway City: 4.40 ERA and a 1.574 WHIP. St. Louis has dropped two of his last three starts with Garcia putting up a 4.76 ERA and a 1.471 WHIP.
The Mets Bartolo Colon has been the most dependable pitcher in the rotation for much of the year but there’s some concern now as two of his last three starts have been substandard. For the season, the Mets have won 12 of his 19 assignments with Colon posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.258 WHIP. At home, they’ve won 6 of his 9 starts as he’s put up a 3.54 ERA and a 1.303 WHIP. They’ve managed to win two of his last three starts but two of Colon’s efforts were horrible. He pitched well on 7/15 at Philadelphia allowing no earned runs and 4 hits in 5 2/3 innings of work. In the other two games he pitched a total of 9 innings allowing 12 earned runs–his ERA for his last 3 games is 7.36 with a 1.772 WHIP.
The Mets have made a small profit against left handed pitchers this year but that’s likely a coincidence. Their offensive output is actually worse–at least in terms of run production–against lefthanders than overall or in their home games. They do have a 10 point higher batting average than their YTD number but since they’ve got the #29 team batting average in baseball that isn’t saying much. The Cardinals have never had trouble hitting Colon throughout his career so expect their superior offense to be the difference.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -110 OVER NEW YORK METS (GAME TWO)
((Here’s what we wrote for Monday’s rained out game. It’s now Game One of Tuesday’s Doubleheader starting at 4:10 PM))
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT NEW YORK METS (GAME ONE):
The Mets took 2 of 3 from the Marlins over the weekend and have cut Miami’s advantage over them to 1/2 game. New York is currently in third place 5 games back of the division leading Washington Nationals. Not an easy draw here as the Cardinals have been playing excellent baseball of late winning 7 of 10 (pending the outcome of Sunday night’s game) and cutting the Chicago Cubs’ lead atop the NL Central to 7 games. Of course the ‘glass half empty’ view is that even though the Cubs struggled badly immediately before the All Star break the Cardinals have not been able to get closer than 6.5 games. They’ve got a 1.5 game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates in third place so they’ve got some pressure from below.
The Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 and are a huge question mark. They’ve got solid pitching but their offense is horrible. They’ve got the #29 ranked runs output in baseball leading only the bottom feeding Atlanta Braves. They’ve got the #27 team batting average. Today’s pitching matchup is a good one–St. Louis will send Carlos Martinez against New York’s Noah Syndergaard. That means that the pitching is a ‘wash’ between these teams meaning that the Cardinals have the substantially better offense. St. Louis averages 5.1 runs per game against right handers to the Mets 3.8 runs per game. The Cards average 6.0 runs per game on the raod to the Mets 3.8 runs per game at home. St. Louis also has a 22 point higher team batting average against right handers and their road batting average is 35 points higher than the Mets’ home batting average. Just can’t see laying a price with the Mets against a solid Cardinals’ team with a substantially better offense.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS +130 OVER NEW YORK METS (GAME ONE)
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
Two teams in poor form and two pitchers in poor form play at Miller Park as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the second game of a four game series. The Brewers are in fourth place in the NL Central and all of a sudden have to worry about the improving(?)Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati looked like the worst team in baseball for the past month or so but have now won six of ten to cut the Brewers lead in fourth place down to four games. With the Brewers looking ready to go into ‘fire sale’ mode and losing game after game they’re ripe for the picking. The Diamondbacks are in last place in the NL West and have lost 7 of 10. At 41-57 they’re 17 games behind the first place San Francisco Giants and 1.5 games behind the fourth place San Diego Padres.
Arizona has lost a ton of money against right handed pitching this season. (28-42 -12.5 units) Milwaukee right hander Matt Garza has been struggling but he could be due for a strong effort against the woeful Diamondbacks. The Brewers are 1-6 overall though they did win his only home start. He’s got a 5.95 ERA and a 1.762 WHIP. They’ve lost his last three starts and Garza has been horrible with a 9.21 ERA and a 1.910 WHIP. Arizona will start Pat Corbin who has also been in terrible form. The Diamondbacks have lost 13 of the lefthander’s 20 assignments this season though they have won 6 of his 10 road starts. Overall, he’s got a 5.39 ERA and a 1.526 WHIP with a road ERA of 3.64 and a 1.3892 WHIP. He’s been awful in his last three starts allowing 14 ER in 14 1/3 innings of work for a 8.79 ERA with a 2.162 WHIP.
Milwaukee has made money against left handed pitching this year(17-14 +6.5 units). In a matchup between two lousy teams that might be the difference.
BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS -120 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS