MLB Baseball Betting for June 19, 2016
The weekend baseball action concludes on Sunday with a full slate of games:
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FOR JUNE 19, 2016:
ATLANTA BRAVES AT NEW YORK METS:
Baseball is weird this year. So much strangeness. The Atlanta Braves are one of the more bizarre. The Braves weren’t expected to be contenders but no one expected them to be a dumpster fire. But don’t look now–the Braves have strung together four straight wins which equals their season high. Keep in mind that the New York Mets have basically quit playing offense (we’ll talk more about that in a moment) but what makes the Saturday loss to the Braves all the more embarrassing is that they had Atlanta right where they wanted them. The Mets led 3-0 after four innings which sets up well for them to win–all they need to do is get some outs. Although the Mets’ bats have gone bye bye their pitching remains solid. They have the second best team ERA in baseball at 3.15 which takes some of the pressure off the New York bats. Mets’ starter Steven Matz was pitching fairly well–he went 6 innings allowing 4 hits, 2 runs (both earned) and struck out 7 while walking 2 and giving up a home run. He escaped with a ‘no decision’.
The Mets simply bumbled this one away letting Atlanta score one run each in the top of the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th. At least the Mets scored some runs today even if it didn’t do them any good. So can the Braves win five straight? Maybe. Atlanta will start veteran Julio Teheran on Sunday and he’s definitely having a bizarre year. He can likely sympathize with some of the Mets’ pitchers as he hasn’t been bad this year but has nothing to show for it. Atlanta has lost 11 of his 14 starts including all eight of his starts at Turner Field. He’s got a 2-7 record but he’s pitched fairly well with a 2.93 ERA overall and a 2.55 road ERA. Not exactly Cy Young candidate numbers but good enough to give his team a chance to win when he takes the ball.
New York will counter with righthander Jacob DeGrom who is in the same boat as Teheran though not quite as bad. He’s put up respectable numbers with a 2.82 ERA overall and a 2.19 home ERA. The Mets are 5-6 overall when he starts and 4-2 at home. DeGrom has taken a hit as his temmates have stopped hitting. In his last three starts he’s put up an 2.84 ERA and averaged 9.3 strikeouts per game–and the Mets lost all three. This is a spot where many handicappers would play the Mets simply because of the ‘avoiding the sweep’ angle. That can be effective in some situations but in my opinion it’s not in play here. The Braves haven’t had enough success this year for them to not show up here. It would only be their second series sweep of the season. They also have a reason to play in the form of the five game winning streak they’d be on with a victory. Teheran could have a big game against the anemic New York bats. At any rate, the Mets aren’t worth anywhere near -180 in their current form. Value play is Atlanta.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES +160 OVER NEW YORK METS
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
We’ll pick on another bad team in this game. The Philadelphia Phillies showed some signs of promise at the start of the year but that’s now a faded memory. The Phillies are 4-13 since June 1 and could very well be the worst team in baseball now that the Atlanta Braves have strung together four straight wins. Even that miserable record for the month doesn’t completely convey how wretched they’ve been. They were no prize in late June either so all told they’re on a 4-19 run.
Arizona has one of those dysfunctional home/away dichotomies. They’re 13-25 at home but 18-14 on the road. You have to think that they’ll do better at home going forward. They’ve got some talent including Saturday’s starter Zack Greinke who absolutely dominated the Phillies batters (not particularly difficult of late) in a 4-1 victory.
Matchup of two struggling pitchers on Sunday. Philadelphia will send rookie Zach Elfin who is looking to rebound from a nightmarish Major League debut. I know that rookies are expected to ‘take their lumps’ but not sure I understand the logic of having Elfin start his first game in a situation where he was pretty much a lock to get pounded–against the Toronto Blue Jays who may have the most potent offense in the Majors at this point (they’ve averaged over 9 runs per game during their last 8 games). He almost has to do better here than he did against Toronto where he survived only 2 2/3 innings allowing 9 hits, 3 HR and 8 earned runs while walking 3 and striking out two. The Diamondbacks are top ten in many offensive categories but it won’t be like jumping in front of a speeding semi truck on the highway which is how Elfin had to feel facing the powerful Jays’ bats.
Arizona’s Shelby Miller has also been struggling but his problems look like nothing compared to Elfin’s first start. Miller is capable of pitching effectively but the Diamondbacks have lost 7 of his 10 starts this season. Like the rest of his team, he’s played better on the road than at home. They’re 1-5 in his home starts but are 2-2 in his road starts despite a bloated 7.36 ERA. That being said, he could have a monster outing against the Phillies who are at the bottom of the Majors in most offensive categories including team batting average and runs. Miller has pitched well against the Phillies throughout his career with a 2.54 ERA in 7 career starts in which his team went 4-3.
It’s getting ugly in Philadelphia and we’ll keep going against them until further notice.
BET ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -140 OVER PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES