MLB Baseball Betting for June 22, 2016
Busy day in Wednesday’s baseball action:
MLB BASEBALL FOR JUNE 22, 2016:
ATLANTA BRAVES AT MIAMI MARLINS:
Note that this game has a 12:10 Eastern Start Time. Hard to understand what is going on with the Atlanta Braves. After bumbling through the first few months of the season it’s like someone has flipped a switch. They’re still not the most talented team in the league but they’re playing hard and that can cover up a lot of flaws and particularly in baseball. On Tuesday, the Braves scrapped out a 3-2 come from behind 10 innings win over the Miami Marlins. It was just the kind of game they would have lost a month or so ago. That victory runs the Atlanta winning streak to six games and they can make it an unfathomable seven straight wins with a victory on Wednesday.
Oddly enough, even before the Braves started their recent winning run they’d taken care of business against the Marlins this season. Miami is really the only team in the league that Atlanta has done well against for the season. They swept Miami on the road early in the year which until their sweep of the New York Mets this past weekend was their only series sweep of the year. They’re now 6-1 +7.7 units against Miami overall this year and 4-0 +6.5 units in Florida. On Tuesday, they managed to win despite 7 brutally effective scoreless innings from Miami ace Jose Fernandez.
Something has obviously happened within the Braves’ clubhouse that has given them a dose of confidence and chemistry. You always got the sense that they weren’t a bad of a team as their record indicated and as long as they continue to play hard there’s no reason *not* to back them as big underdogs. They’ve even got a shot to get out of last place in the NL East which would have been unfathomable a month ago. Now they’re just 5 games back of the fourth place Philadelphia Phillies who have assumed the Braves’ mantle of worst team in the National League. The Phillies have lost 8 straight and 9 of 10 and there’s little evidence of a turnaround in the near future. As long as Atlanta can just play .500 baseball they’ll be out of the basement in a week or so.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES +140 OVER MIAMI MARLINS
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT CHICAGO CUBS:
If you’re been reading our baseball coverage here you know that we’ve been talking about playing against the Chicago Cubs in certain situations simply because the prices are just too high. This is one of those situations. Jake Arrieta is as good as any pitcher in baseball and he’s on the mound today for Chicago. But -300 against a very capable St. Louis Cardinals team? The Cubs have cooled off somewhat from their insanely torrid early season pace. Manager Joe Maddon is going with a six man rotation for the immediate future to give his top line starters some extra rest–and that suggests that they might have some fatigue issues. Arrieta’s L3 ERA is decent at 2.50 but nothing like his 1.74 YTD ERA.
Simply put, you just can’t be laying -300 on any pitcher or any team. Theoretical breakeven at that price is 75%–and that’s just to break even. Arrieta has a 1.64 ERA and the Cubs have won 5 of his 7 home starts. But if you bet him in all of those games you would be in the red (-0.2 units). Chicago is 2-1 in his last three starts and bettors on the Cubs in those games lost -1.2 units. Squares bet teams. Sharps bet prices. And at this price there’s only one play.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS +250 OVER CHICAGO CUBS
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT TORONTO BLUE JAYS:
Toronto is a tough team to figure out. They went a week or so absolutely killing it on offense. At one point they were averaging 9 runs per game during a one week stretch. Now they’ve scored only 2 runs in two of their last three games. They won only one game in a weekend series at Toronto and now they’ve dropped the first game of this interleague series against Toronto. Arizona is a very dysfunctional team–they’ve been decent on the road and awful at home. Toronto needs to get back on the winning track and there’s nothing about this matchup or the Diamondbacks’ pitchers that should give them too much trouble.
BET TORONTO BLUE JAYS -175 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS