MLB Baseball Betting for June 25, 2016
Busy day of baseball on Saturday with 15 games plus a ‘write in game’ between Tampa Bay and Baltimore:
CHICAGO CUBS AT MIAMI MARLINS:
It wasn’t exactly pretty but the Chicago Cubs beat the Miami Marlins on Friday night to end their four game losing streak. His offense spotted Chicago starter Tom Kohler a 4-0 lead but he gave up a first inning grand slam to Justin Bour. Tie game. But the Cubs scrapped out the go-ahead run in the 7th and held on for the 5-4 win. The recent downturn isn’t really a big deal but it has helped restore at least a modicum of sanity to the pricing on Cubs’ games. We’ll get involved with the Cubbies at a fairly reasonable price on Saturday as veteran righthander John Lackey will matchup with recent Triple A callup Paul Clemens.
Cubs fans are still going with the ‘season to remember‘ mantra and there’s little to suggest that this isn’t the case. The biggest gripe concerning the team at the moment are new nanny state liquor laws that will limit the team’s ability to sell alcohol. Obviously, the Cubs didn’t grease the palms of Mayor Rahm Emmanuel sufficiently. They should know better.
Chicago starter John Lackey might not be the most high profile member of the pitching staff but to quote a fantasy baseball preview: “John Lackey just continues to get it done start after start after start. He’s now registered quality starts in 10 straight outings.” They’re paying attention locally and have rightfully praised Lackey for adding significant depth to the Cubs starting rotation.
Miami will start Paul Clemens who was brought up from Triple A New Orleans to replace struggling Justin Nicolino in the rotation. Nicolino may have passed him heading in the opposite direction as he was optioned to New Orleans. Before his June 20 start against Colorado, Clemens hadn’t pitched in the Majors since 2013. The Marlins obviously aren’t expecting much out of the right hander as they’ve made no secret of their intentions to trade for bottom of the rotation depth. Clemens wasn’t horrible in his only other start of the season but he wasn’t especially good either–5 innings pitched, 3 earned runs, 7 hits but the ugly stat was 3 home runs.
Chicago has been unfairly downgraded by the public during their recent downturn. Excuse them for not maintaining a .700 pace all season long. Huge pitching mismatch.
BET CHICAGO CUBS -170 OVER MIAMI MARLINS
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
The Washington Nationals are another team in a slump. They’ve lost 5 straight and allowed not only the New York Mets to keep pace but have also allowed the aforementioned Marlins into the ‘lead pack’. Pending the outcome of Friday’s game the Nationals are 3.5 games up on the Mets and 4.5 games up on the Marlins. The injury situation in Washington isn’t especially bad–reliever Jonathan Papelbon is on the 15 day DL but the team got some good news about starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg missed his last start but after ‘having his ribs popped back in place’ will start on Sunday. The team had feared that he could have been gone longterm but if the ‘rib popping’ worked he’ll give a much needed boost to the team. The source of the injury? A weight room ‘rib dislocation’. Don’t fool around in the weight room, kids…
At least some media outlets are urging calm amidst the Nats’ downturn but ‘panic’ is what Washington DC does best. Washington manager Dusty Baker obviously knows baseball but he’s never been the kind of manager than can make a ‘sinking ship’ seaworthy again. There are several theories about the source of the Nats’ problems: 1) Inconsistent play 2) Lack of bullpen depth 3) Poor play on the West Coast 4) More inconsistent play.
The answer is probably ‘all of the above’. The further deterioration of the one time beastly Gio Gonzalez–who gets the start here–hasn’t helped either. Gonzalez was an absolute monster in the first year he came over from the Oakland A’s (incidentally, old time baseball handicappers used to swear by the ‘lefthanders changing leagues’ angle). In 2012 he was 21-8 with a 2.80 ERA. In 2013, he was 11-8 with a 3.36 ERA. In 2014, 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA. In 2015, 11-8 with a 3.79 ERA. So far this year, he’s 3-6 with a 4.25 ERA. This is what we sports handicappers call a ‘trend’. Making his decline all the more curious is that his been reasonably healthy and has had roughly the same number of starts every year:
2012 32 starts
2013 32 starts
2014 27 starts
2015 31 starts
2016 14 starts (as of June 25)
Gonzalez is tied for third in the list of ‘most games allowing at least 5 runs‘. That’s not good. This is a very important year for Gonzalez–as his salary has gone up during his Washington tenure his performance has declined. He’s getting paid $12 million this season. Next year, he’s got a $12 million team option with a $500k buyout and there’s really no way that the Nationals will back up the Brinks truck with Gonzalez’s current form.
Milwaukee will start Matt Garza who has been a very pleasant surprise since returning from the DL. Milwaukee has lost both of his starts since returning but it sure hasn’t been Garza’s fault. Garza has pitched 10 innings allowing just 1 run. I’m not even sure that I understand how it’s mathematically possible for your starter to pitch that well and your team to be 0-2.
This is a really bad matchup for a struggling Washington team. Gonzalez has been awful this year and Milwaukee hits left handers fairly well (.245 BA, 4.7 runs per game). The Brewers are 13-10 +5.2 units against southpaws this season. They may need a big performance from Stephen Strasburg against struggling Jimmy Nelson on Sunday. In Saturday’s game we’ll play the Brew Crew.
BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS +120 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS