MLB Baseball Betting for September 19, 2016
Eleven games on a short card of Major League Baseball for Monday:
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 19, 2016:
CINCINNATI REDS AT CHICAGO CUBS:
The Chicago Cubs have lost two straight since clinching the NL Central and they’ll try to get back on the winning track as they welcome the Cincinnati Reds to Wrigley Field. The Cubs may have the divisional title in the bag but they still need to secure home field advantage through the playoffs. Making the two losses something of a concern–they came with Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks on the mound. This does deserve a bit of context–Arrieta pitched fairly well but the bullpen let the game get away. He went 6 innings pitched, 4 hits and 3 ER. It was also the day after they clinched and most of the Cubs’ regulars got the day off. Kyle Hendricks pitched well but the Cubs offense took the day off (unofficially). Hendricks went 6 innings allowing 6 hits, 2 ER with 9 strikeouts and no walks.
The Cincinnati Reds have played better in the second half but they’re still mired in last place in the NL Central. They’re 4.5 games back of the fourth place Milwaukee Brewers and they still have a chance to run them down. The Reds have been awful on the road this year but given their valuations they’ve lost single digits. Cincinnati is 26-45 -6.9 units for the season. Where they have excelled is against opponents with winning records in the second half of the season. They’re 17-18 +7.4 units against opponents over .500 in the second half.
By now everyone knows the deal with the Chicago Cubs. They’ve been downright monstrous this season and particularly at Wrigley Field where they’re 52-23 but that’s just a +3.8 units profit due to their ridiculously high valuations. On Sunday, for example, they were -320 favorites. On Monday, they’ll start right hander Jason Hammel who hasn’t been sharp of late but that’s not surprising since he’s been in poor form on the road all season. His home field starts are a different matter–the Cubs are 11-2 when he starts at Wrigley Field and Hammel has a 1.77 ERA with a 0.996 WHIP. The Cubs have made mincemeat of the Reds this season going 10-3 +3.6 units but are just 4-2 +0.3 units at home. Chicago needs to get their head back into the game following their division title celebration and they shouldn’t have much trouble hitting right hander Tim Adelman.
BET CHICAGO CUBS -230 OVER CINCINNATI REDS
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT COLORADO ROCKIES:
The St. Louis Cardinals have to earn one of the two wild card spots to make the playoffs and they’ve got plenty of competition. The New York Mets currently have the top wild card spot one game up on the second wildcard holders, the San Francisco Giants. The Cardinals are 1 game back of the Giants. There are three other teams within single digits of the wildcard but as of yet they’re not posing a threat. Then again, the Cardinals aren’t posing much of a threat either with a 5-5 record in their last ten games. They’ve actually lost 5 of their last 8 and are in poor form. They’ve got six games coming up on the road including this one–3 against the Rockies followed by 3 at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs.
At one point, Colorado was playing great baseball to start the second half of the season. They’ve slipped somewhat but they’re still one game over .500 since July 15. Had the season started on 7/15 they’d be in second place in the NL West just 3.5 games behind the first place Dodgers. Even with their nice run it’s hard to figure out what is going on with this team. The Rockies swept the San Diego Padres over the weekend. Colorado will start lefthander Tyler Anderson who has been very consistent this year and particularly home. Consistency isn’t a common quality among Colorado pitchers and particularly at notoriously ‘hitter friendly’ Coors Field. Anderson has a 3.65 ERA overall with a 1.258 WHIP, a 3.04 home ERA and 1.268 WHIP and a L3 ERA of 3.50 with a 1.501 WHIP. The Rockies have gone 8-9 in his 17 starts with a 7-4 record at home.
St. Louis will start right hander Carlos Martinez who has pitched his best on the road. He’s got a 3.15 ERA overall with a 1.212 WHIP, a 2.35 road ERA with a 1.198 WHIP and a 3.79 ERA with a 1.579 WHIP in his last three. The Cards are 15-13 in his starts this year with a record of 9-4 on the road. The Cardinals have looked downright inept against lefthanders at various points this year. They’re 18-23 -10.9 units against southpaws and will face left handers not only today but tomorrow as well. We’ll back the home team.
BET COLORADO ROCKIES -115 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS