MLB Baseball Betting for September 2, 2016
SEPTEMBER 1 CALLUPS AND EXPANDED ROSTERS:
We’re entering the busiest six months of the sports betting calendar. It won’t be long before the betting board serves up college football, NFL football, NHL hockey, NBA hoops and college hoops along with events like the Breeders’ Cup in rapid succession. Baseball has a tendency to fade into the background at this point in the year which is a shame since September baseball can be very exciting, not to mention profitable.
One important thing to remember is the September 1 roster expansion and callups. Major League rosters expand from 25 to 40 players on September 1. Most teams in contention will appreciate the additional depth but won’t change their starting lineups or pitching rotations much. Teams that are out of contention will. If you can assess some of the players they’ve called up quickly you can find good value on some teams that are better off with a young lineup. Just a few talented prospects with a positive attitude can completely change the character of a team and teams that have been bottom feeders for much of the season can go on a decent run in September.
The opposite is also true–some teams don’t have talent and/or leadership in the farm system and the September 1 callups and expanded rosters just mean more bad players including those with little Major League experiences. Some teams nosedive even more. The thing to do is keep your eyes open and pay attention to the teams at the bottom of the standings.
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 2, 2016:
ATLANTA BRAVES AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
The Atlanta Braves have been the worst team in baseball for most of the 2016 season but thanks to the utter collapse of the Minnesota Twins they have a chance to *not* finish the season with the worst record in the Majors.
This didn’t look possible just a few weeks ago but since then the Twins have gone completely in the toilet losing 13 straight games. The Braves are now 51-83 to Minnesota’s 49-84.
You have to give the Braves credit–as bad as they’ve been this season you never got the vibe that they’d quit trying or that they didn’t care anymore. They always played hard even if they didn’t play particularly well. That attitude can pay dividends in September and particularly against opponents of this class. The Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 games and just wrapped up a series sweep of San Diego–their first series sweep of the season.
Philadelphia has been up and down this season. Before the All Star Break they were one of the most inept teams in baseball. They played fairly well to start the second half and at one point were flirting with the .500 mark. Now they’ve lost 8 of 11. They’ll start Jeremy Hellickson who is one of the most competent members of their pitching staff. He went on a nice run near the trade deadline but the Phillies couldn’t find the right deal for him so here he is in September. The Phillies are 15-11 when he starts including 7-6 at home. He’s coming off one of his worst starts of the year on 8/27 allowing 5 ER and 7 hits including 2 home runs in 4 innings of work in a 12-1 loss to the streaking New York Mets. Atlanta’s Joel De La Cruz hasn’t been much this year but then again neither has his entire team. The Phillies have put up horrible offensive numbers–even worse than the Braves. At home, they’re hitting .225 and averaging 3.2 runs per game.
We like how Atlanta has kept fighting this year and the team has made a very nice profit on the road going 29-40 +9.9 units. The Phillies have lost money at home 30-36 -2.3 units. At any rate, this game is no worse than a coin flip and the Phillies have no business being a -145 chalk in this game.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES +135 OVER PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT NEW YORK METS:
Very interesting game between two teams in good form. The Mets are coming off a 6-4 loss to the Miami Marlins on Thursday but have won 7 of 10 and 9 of 12 and have cut the Washington Nationals’ lead atop the NL East to single digits. The problem is that the Mets might be running out of time making this weekend series at CitiField crucial for their postseason chances. The Nationals have won 3 straight and 5 of 7, coming off a three game road sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies.
A.J. Cole gets his third start of the year and he’s got some huge shoes to fill with Stephen Strasburg on the disabled list. The Nationals have lost both of Cole’s previous 2016 starts though he’s pitched reasonably well. Not great–allowing 7 runs in 12 2/3 innings of work–but not too bad. The problem is that he’ll be facing Mets’ right hander Noah Syndergaard who has been a monster in his recent starts. In his last three starts Syndergaard has put up a 1.31 ERA and a 0.822 WHIP on 20 2/3 innings of work allowing 3 ER on 11 hits. He’s also struck out 21 against 6 walks in three Mets’ victories.
The Nationals have had very little trouble with the Mets in recent years or, for that matter, this year. In the past three seasons, the Nationals are 32-19 +8.9 units against the Phillies including 19-8 +10.9 units at Citifield. This year, the Nationals have won 9 of 13 including 5 of 7 on the Mets’ home field. Ultimately, this game comes down to pricing. The Mets are a -160 chalk and that’s just too high.
BET WASHINGTON NATIONALS +145 OVER NEW YORK METS