MLB Baseball Betting for September 23, 2016
The Major League Baseball season is winding down and teams are running out of time to make a push for the playoffs. Here’s what we like in Friday’s action:
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 23, 2016:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT NEW YORK METS:
The Philadelphia Phillies have been a very strange team this season. They started the year playing at or above the .500 level but hit the skids right before the All Star Break. After the break they played well for awhile, slumped horribly and have started to play decent baseball in the waning days of the season. They’re just 27-34 in the second half (pending the outcome of Thursday’s game against the Mets) but the Mets haven’t been much better with a 32-31 record.
The Mets are 9 games behind the first place Washington Nationals in the NL East race with just ten games to play. They’re still alive for the wildcard in a three way tie with St. Louis and San Francisco. The Pittsburgh Pirates have started playing well (7-3 L10) and are just 4 games back with the Miami Marlins 4.5 games off the pace. New York got some bad news on Thursday when it was revealed that left hander Steven Matz has developed some new soreness in his arm and won’t get the start here. There’s conflicting reports that he’s done for the year and with Jacob DeGrom and Matt Harvey already out for the rest of the season the New York rotation is looking very thin. At this point it looks like rookie Gabriel Ynoa will get the start in Matz’s place. Ynoa looked sharp in his first MLB start striking out 8 in 4 2/3 innings of work.
Philadelphia will start right hander Jeremy Hellickson who has looked good in his recent work. Hellickson is a free agent after this season and his form down the stretch means that someone will scratch him out a very nice check. In his last three starts Hellickson has gone 21 1/3 innings allowing 15 hits, 3 earned runs while striking out 12 and walking 3. That’s a 1.27 ERA and a 0.844 WHIP over that stretch. The Mets don’t hit anyone well but they’re hitting .237 and averaging 3.8 runs per game against right handers. They’ve also lost -11.2 units against RHP this season. New York’s mental state might take a hit after the Matz injury. Game currently off the board due to the Mets’ pitching situation but when it goes up the Phillies are the play.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES OVER NEW YORK METS
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT SAN DIEGO PADRES:
The San Francisco Giants were the best team in baseball during the first half of the season. Through July 15 they had a record of 57-34 and held a 5.5 game lead over Los Angeles in the NL West. During the second half of the season, they’ve been one of the worst teams in baseball. Since July 15 no NL team has lost more games and won fewer games. Minnesota in the American League has lost one more game but both teams have won just 23 games. The Giants have lost 7 of 10 (pending the outcome of Thursday’s series opener) but somehow they’re still alive for a wild card berth. In fact, they’re currently in a three way tie with the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets. None of these teams are tearing it up at the moment–St. Louis and New York are just 5-5 in their last 10 games meaning that the Giants could still back in to the playoffs.
‘On paper’ this weekend series against the San Diego Padres looks like a good chance for San Francisco to pick up a few wins. But nothing has worked out easily for the Giants in the second half of the season. San Diego is +3 units in head to head play with San Francisco this year (6-9) and the Padres have split 6 games at Petco Park (+2.8 units). Edwin Jackson has been pitching fairly well of late but his L3 ERA is misleading due to a horrible outing on 9/17 in Colorado. Before that he had allowed just 9 hits and 2 earned runs in his previous 13 innings of work.
San Francisco will start right hander Albert Suarez who has been mediocre at best this year (4.11 ERA, 1.211 WHIP) with the Giants losing 8 of his 11 starts. They’ve lost his last 3 starts though Suarez has been in marginally better form. The problem is that the Giants haven’t been hitting–in their last 7 games they’re hitting .236 and averaging 3.1 runs per game. The Padres are nothing special but they’ve made money at home (+4 units) and in night games (+13.7 units). They’ve also been profitable against divisional rivals (+6.9 units). San Francisco has lost a ton of money overall (-11.4 units), against right handed pitching (-18 units) and in night games (-14.8 units). We’ll take the home team as decent sized underdogs.
BET SAN DIEGO PADRES +135 OVER SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS