MLB Baseball Betting for September 9, 2016
Busy, busy sports weekend with baseball hitting their stretch run along with the first week of the NFL football season and the second week of college football. We’ll look at a full card of Friday action:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT MIAMI MARLINS:
Do my eyes deceive me? The scheduled starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers in this game is one Clayton Kershaw who has been activated off the 60 day disabled list. Not everyone is happy about Kershaw being rushed back into the rotation even though the Dodgers’ pitchers have been ravaged by injuries all Summer. This is because despite the unprecedented number of injuries the Dodgers have experienced this year they’ve taken care of business. Since Kershaw last pitched the Dodgers have gone from 6.5 games out of first place in the NL West to their current position in first place with a 5 game advantage over the slumping San Francisco Giants. Word is that despite not being at 100% Kershaw will get the start here. Presumably, the Dodgers wouldn’t be giving the ball to the lefthander if there was any risk of long term injury but you never really know.
The Dodgers have been playing great baseball of late winning 5 straight and 7 of 10. The Marlins are on one hand a good matchup for Kershaw’s comeback due to their miserable form. Miami has lost 8 of 10 and 10 of their last 12. On the other hand, they’re throwing Kershaw out against a team that has been at their best facing left handed pitching. The Marlins average 4.5 runs per game against southpaws and have a record of 21-10 +14.9 units. The $64,000 question is which Clayton Kershaw will show up. Will he be anywhere near his usual form? If he is, the Marlins’ record against left handers might not matter.
Even if Kershaw does come back in good form it’s a very risky move. In a way, it disrupts the Dodgers’ continuity at a time when they’re playing very well. If it pays off, it could make the NL West title a foregone conclusion. Of course, it looks like that will be the case with or without Kershaw. Miami is starting right hander Jose Fernandez who has been exceptional at home with a 1.91 ERA and a 1.004 WHIP and the Marlins winning 10 of his 14 starts. At the price, just no reason to back the Dodgers given the ‘question mark’ that is Clayton Kershaw. We’ll take the home team.
BET MIAMI MARLINS +135 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS
NEW YORK METS AT ATLANTA BRAVES:
The New York Mets have been playing very well of late though they’ve h ad a hard time cutting into the lead of NL East top gun Washington. New York has won 8 of 10 and 5 straight but the Nationals have won 7 of 10. That leaves the Mets 8 games out of first place and running out of time to cut into that advantage. The Braves were swept by the Mets earlier in the week but prior to that had been playing very well winning 7 of 8. The Mets, meanwhile, have won 5 straight and 10 of 13. The Mets have a very crucial three game series on deck for early next week playing the Nationals at Washington. Until then, they’ve got a three game series against Atlanta at Turner Field but after the Nationals’ series they have 10 games at home against Minnesota, Atlanta and Philadelphia. In fact, once they’re done with the Nationals they won’t play a team with a winning record the rest of the way.
The Braves’ primary goal at this point is to avoid finishing with the worst record in baseball. They’ve made a lot of progress in that regard due to a combination of their improved play and the horrible performance of the Minnesota Twins over the last month or so. The Mets are without two starting pitchers at the moment–Jacob DeGrom and Steven Matz are out of the rotation with injuries. Fortunately, they’ve been getting good work from today’s starter, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and the ageless Bartolo Colon who has given the Mets a team high 164.2 innings of work this year. Gsellman struggled in his first start of the year, 8/28 at Philadelphia but was very sharp on 9/3 at Washington where he went 6 innings allowing 6 hits and just one earned run. The Braves have been ‘less bad’ this year against right handed pitching and have actually turned a small profit against them (+0.5 units) despite a 40-57 record against RHP.
Atlanta will start Julio Teheran who has displayed his usual professionalism and decent form during this disastrous season despite getting horrendous support for the most part. He turned in one of the worst outings of his career on 8/24 at Arizona allowing 6 ER and 11 hits in 6 innings of work but has since rebounded with two straight wins in which he went 13 innings allowing just 11 hits, 2 ER and 15 strikeouts against just two walks. Teheran is the difference maker in our view and the improved form of the Braves should give him a chance to get his record in more reasonable shape down the stretch.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES -120 OVER NEW YORK METS