National League Baseball Betting for July 15, 2016
FINALLY, the All Star Break is over and we can get back to work. This week has become the slowest sports betting week of the year–at least for North American based fans. Really, it’s everywhere. Even soccer is in a lull in Europe and elsewhere with most of the pro leagues like the English Premier League not starting play until early August. With all due respect to fans of other sports that *are* in the midst of their season (like Australian Rules Football)it’s really a dead time of year for sports bettors.
Things will be changing quickly over the next few weeks and with baseball heating up, NFL football in the preseason and college football right around the corner it’ll get very busy very soon.
NATIONAL LEAGUE BASEBALL BETTING FOR JULY 15, 2016:
NEW YORK METS AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
You’ve got to give the Washington Nationals credit. They’ve had plenty of ups and downs during the first half of the Major League Baseball season but through them all it’s seemed that if you look at the NL East Standings they’re in first place by about a half dozen games. And that’s where they are now as the second half resumes. These teams want to change that. The New York Mets are in second place, tied with the Miami Marlins six games out. The hottest team in the division, however, is the Philadelphia Phillies who won 7 of 10 heading into the All Star Break. They’re currently in fourth place but have dispatched the last place Atlanta Braves as they now lead the worst team in baseball by 10.5 games. They’re 6 games behind the Mets/Marlins and another 6 back of the first place Nationals.
And here’s where it gets interesting–the Phillies play their next 7 games and 10 of their next 13 against divisional rivals ahead of them in the standings. It starts with this three game series against the Mets followed by a four game homestand against the Miami Marlins starting on Monday. They head to Pittsburgh for three games with the Pirates next weekend before heading down to South Florida four three games against the Marlins on Monday. After a four game series at Atlanta to close out the month they won’t play a divisional foe again until late August when they play 16 straight against NL East opponents including 13 with either Washington, Miami or New York.
In other words, the Nationals’ six game lead isn’t safe. Nor is the 6 game lead over Philadelphia that the Mets and Marlins currently enjoy. Philadelphia has at various points this year been one of the worst teams in baseball so there’s always a risk that their recent strong play is a mirage and they’ll be out of it by the end of August. Maybe that’s why it’s hard to get a vibe on the expectations of the Phillies’ fans, players and suits regarding the second half of the season. ‘Big picture’ the mood is one of optimism as the Phillies rebuilding project looks to be ahead of schedule. The local sports media has taken a tone of ‘boosterism’ around the team exhorting local fans that tuned out the team at their nadir to start paying attention again.
The Phillies and Mets have split six games this season with the Mets taking 2 of 3 in Philly. New York clearly views themselves as contenders and ‘buyers’ in the second half. Most reports suggest that they’re trying to beef up the bullpen for a playoff run. Mets fans and management are guardedly optimistic that everything else is well in order. One huge concern all year has been the offense but the team’s run output increased during the weeks before the All Star Break.
We’ll go with the home team here. Starter Jeremy Hellickson has looked very sharp in his most recent starts though the ‘word on the street’ is conflicted. He’s either going to be an integral part of the Philadelphia rotation going forward or else he’s trade bait.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +115 OVER NEW YORK METS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
The Cincinnati Reds are a dumpster fire. For now, they’ve avoided having the worst record in baseball but if they keep playing they did in the month before the break it looks like it’ll be a matter of time before they claim their rightful spot in the basement. Even if the other bottom feeders like Atlanta, Tampa Bay or Minnesota show no improvement whatsoever. As the second half of the season begins the Reds are 32-57 which puts them 21.5 games out of first place and 7 games behind the fourth place Milwaukee Brewers. Although this could change with a generous infusion of young prospects the most miserable thing about the team is their lack of enthusiasm. Atlanta has been awful this year but they’ve played hard throughout it. The Reds just seem befuddled. There’s plenty of ugly statistical situations you can extract from the first half of the Reds’ season but this might be the nastiest. There are only two teams in Major League Baseball with a triple digit deficit in their run differential. The Atlanta Braves at -107 is one of them. The other? The Cincinnati Reds with a deficit of a ridiculous -154. Yep, the Reds’ differential is -47 runs worse than the current worst team in baseball.
That being said, we’re going to bet the Reds today. And the only reason we’re doing so is their starting pitcher, Anthony Desclafani. No one can figure out if the team should keep or deal Desclafani. There’s a lot of sentiment among the fan base and media that they should keep him. I’d have to concur with that. The Reds need everything but their problem during the last few years is their cycle of perpetually ‘hitting the reset button’ and purging their promising young players. The rationale is they can get lower priced ‘prospects’ but the deal with ‘prospects’ is that they only do a team good if you hang on to them after they develop. Sometimes there are financial realities to address but Desclafani doesn’t present any–he’s not eligible for arbitration until the 2018 season. He’s also been pitching well enough that the home team is undervalued and that’s tough to do with this miserable Cincinnati team.
BET CINCINNATI REDS -125 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS