Nats Narrowly Favored Over Brewers in Series Opener
Who: Milwaukee Brewers v. Washington Nationals
When: Tuesday July 25th, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: Nationals Park—Washington, DC
When the Brewers and Nationals kick off their 3-game series in DC on Tuesday, they will do so as playoff hopefuls currently heading opposite directions. The Nationals have been red-hot since returning from the All-Star Break, and currently boast a more than 12-game lead atop the beleaguered NL East. A combination of lights-out pitching and consistently strong run production has helped the Nationals extend what was already a large lead atop the division. The Brewers will surely be a test for the Nats, but with how they have been playing recently maybe not such a large one.
Heading into the All-Star Break, the Milwaukee Brewers were the team to beat in the NL Central, and had a commanding lead to go along with it. Since the All-Star Break, however, the Brewers have lost 7 of their last 8. Perhaps even more telling of just how bad this streak is, they have lost 3 of 6 to the Phillies, who are just about the worst team in MLB. Hoping to bounce back, they will head to DC and hope for better luck against the Nationals.
Being that this is the first of a 3-game series, Bovada is offering a moneyline on which team will win at least 2 of the 3 games. Right now, thanks to their recently dismal form, the Brewers are +195 underdogs to emerge victorious from this series. The Nationals, on the other hand, are heavily favored at -250 odds. To be honest, I would stay away from this one. The Nationals have been playing well, but the Brewers are wholly capable of bouncing back and stealing 2 wins.
Game Overview and Analysis
On the mound for the Nationals (-122) will be Edwin Jackson (1-0 4.50 ERA). Jackson, who was acquired from the Orioles, got off to a hot start in his first outing with his new team. He pitched 7 complete innings, gave up 2 runs, and earned his first win for the team. In his previous action with the Orioles—where he was a relief pitcher—Jackson did not overly impress, but did not disappoint either. In his few innings pitched at a time, the one constant is that Jackson is susceptible to giving up runs. In fact, in 2 outings with the Orioles, both of which were less than 3 innings in length, Jackson gave up at least 2 runs in each.
The Nationals are currently battling some injury issues, so the hope is that Jackson will slide seamlessly into the starting rotation. Though unproven, he has shown some glimpses of excellence this season. The real test will be just how well someone coming from a new team will be able to perform on a consistent basis.
For the Brewers (-102), we will see Zach Davies (11-4 4.76 ERA) take the mound. By looking at his quick stats alone, it is clear to see that Davies is having a very solid year. If we take a smaller sample size, such as his last 5 starts, we see that he seems to be peaking. In those 5 starts, Davies earned 4 wins and 1 no-decision. To dig even deeper, in that one no-decision outing, Davies pitched 7 complete innings and did not give up a single run. His relief pitchers, on the other hand, did.
What we can tell from this matchup is that it features one talented, proven star who is having a solid year against a guy who has just been thrust into the starting rotation for a brand new team. As far as the offenses are concerned, the Nationals have been on fire while the Brewers have been very cold. All things considered, this is a very interesting game, and is looking like it will be an equally intriguing series.
Betting Prediction
Though it goes against the recent forms of both teams, I think the best bet you can make on this game is a moneyline wager on the Brewers. Their -102 odds offered by Bovada get you very close to even money, and offer you the opportunity to make a lot should they win. I am basing this decision solely off of the pitchers. Jackson is unproven and liable to give up runs, while Davies has been one of the strongest pitchers in baseball in recent weeks. Should these guys live up to these expectations, I think the Brewers are going to win.
I typically do not like under bets when it comes to the high-powered Nationals’ offense, but I will make an exception for this one. Right now, Bovada lists the over/under at 10 runs (-105/-115). I like the under (-115) because I think Davies will effectively shut down the Nationals’ offense. What’s more, it is very difficult to bet against a pitcher that is in such spectacular form. He did give up a few runs to the Phillies a few weeks back, but I have little doubt that he will play excellently tonight.