NFL Football Betting for October 2, 2016
The last day of the Major League Baseball season on Sunday as well as a full card of NFL action. Here’s our ‘Best Bet’:
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING FOR OCTOBER 2, 2016:
BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
This is one of the most remarkable pointspreads I’ve seen in a couple of decades as a sports handicapper. I sure can’t recall a NFL team being opened as a near touchdown favorite when it looked like there was a realistic possibility that their *fourth string* quarterback would be forced into service. That scenario now looks highly unlikely. It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center here. It also looks like Jacoby Brissett will also be available. The ‘party line’ is that coach Bill Belichick will wait until warm ups to make his decision but he’s likely doing that just to be a pain in the ass. If you don’t think that ‘The Hoodie’ doesn’t have this one all figured out by now you haven’t been paying attention as he’s amassed a fistful of Super Bowl rings.
If you asked Belichick before the season started and he was being honest he would have likely admitted that he’d be happy with a 3-1 record in the books when Tom Brady comes back from suspension. Not any more. Brady has been giving his own ‘extended middle finger’ to commissioner Roger Goodell by just leading his charmed life, primarily sunbathing nude with his supermodel wife. Now it’s time for Belichick and the Patriots’ franchise to do the same. And what better way to do that than by dropping a 4-0 record during Brady’s suspension?
As things have transpired, this game has set up perfectly for this to happen. First, there’s the perfect opponent in the right situation. Is there a more glaring coaching mismatch than Belichick vs. Rex Ryan? Ryan’s Buffalo Bills were able to take the pressure off of their coach with a convincing win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. Belichick can put him right back on the hot seat here.We get the advantage of catching the Bills off a win but the reality is that it was more of a case of Arizona losing than anything else. The Cardinals turned the ball over five times with the usually dependable Carson Palmer throwing four interceptions.
Belichick has owned Buffalo during his career with a ridiculous 23-2 SU run against the Bills. Gillette Stadium has become one of the toughest venues in the NFL with New England going 19-2 SU/14-5-2 ATS during the last three seasons. Going back even more, the Patriots are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 home games. The Patriots have usually been a fast starting team during the Belichick ERA and they enter this game with a perfect 8-0 SU/5-2-1 ATS run in the month of October. Were the situation different the Bills might be worth a look as underdogs. They’ve covered 12 of their last 18 getting points and New England has shown a tendency to not ‘bring the hammer’ against opponents with losing records. The Patriots are a great ATS team at home in any circumstance but the situation makes this a ‘statement game’.
BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7.5 OVER BUFFALO BILLS