NFL Football Betting for September 25, 2016
Big day of NFL action as the third Sunday of the season is upon us. Here’s our ‘best bet’:
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 25, 2016:
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
One of the most valuable lessons you’ll ever learn about sports handicapping is especially relevant to the NFL: no team is ever as bad as they look at their worst or as good as they look at their best. That’s relevant in this matchup as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a 40-7 embarrassment at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. Jameis Winston was intercepted five times in what was likely his worst game as a pro. Fans that don’t get to watch Tampa Bay often may conclude on the basis of this performance that he’s not legit. He is. Every young quarterback has a few lousy games. For some reason Winston has the media flip flopping over his performance week after week. The same media that tried to convince us that Michael Vick was still an elite quarterback week after week following his (not long enough) prison stint despite copious evidence to the contrary.
Winston was an easy guy to hate during his time at Florida State. He was a horrible interview and had more trouble with the English language than he did with opposing pass rushes. He came off as a spoiled reprobate off the field with everything from sexual assault allegations to a highly publicized incident where he kifed some crab legs from a grocery store by sticking them down his pants (you can’t say he isn’t resourceful). When Tampa Bay drafted him at #1 I was of the opinion that he was going to be a bust on the level of Ryan Leaf by way of Lawrence Phillips. Seriously, I thought he was a guy with very limited upside and limitless downside.
So far I’ve been completely wrong about Winston. He’s been a hard working and effective player that is actually trying to learn the craft of being a NFL quarterback and not slide by on his freaky athleticism. He was thrown into the deep end immediately in Tampa Bay given the starting job from Day 1. I was convinced that he didn’t have the character and toughness to deal with that mentally and emotionally but he’s been learning on the job. The most remarkable thing about Winston isn’t that he’s been able to be successful on the field. The most impressive and surprising thing is that he’s by all accounts an excellent team leader and has not only ‘kept his nose clean’ off the field but has become a positive presence in the Tampa Bay community. It’s one thing to just stay out of trouble though the bar for professional athletes has been set so low that even that’s worth commendation. It’s a different thing entirely to proactively use your fame and good fortune to help others. Consider these quotes from teammates like Louis Murphy:
“I get asked all the time, ‘How is he really?’ “I’m always like, ‘Come on, man. Why are you asking me these questions? He’s a great kid.’ He’s made some mistakes, but he without sin can cast the first stone.”
Murphy continues:
“It blew me away. People were surprised, and I didn’t even expect him to be so involved. But he cares so much. He cares about the kids and this community.”
Defensive tackle Akeem Spence:
“His work in the community is like no other. He’s always giving back, volunteering, supporting good causes and showing up at teammates’ camps. He is always willing to give a helping hand, no matter who asks.”
So this is the guy that represented the worst elements of college sports from allegations of sexual assault and point shaving to petty theft? He sure doesn’t sound like it now:
“It’s very important to me. I know I can’t be in my hometown all the time, but I can be a face and be a voice in St. Pete and Tampa.”
The interesting thing about Winston is that his surprising and positive changes strike me as legitimate and not the result of a NFL/ESPN PR campaign. They can ‘work’ the general public and their media sycophants but as has been demonstrated over and over again you can’t ‘work’ your teammates, especially as a rookie in a room full of veterans.
Tampa Bay catches Los Angeles coming off their first win since returning to Southern California, a 9-3 upset of the Seattle Seahawks. That game is also significant because it featured the only points they’ve scored all season. Their next franchise goal? Maybe scoring a touchdown which they haven’t done in their first two games. To their credit, they’ve put up decent defensive numbers so far. That’s to be expected with a Jeff Fisher coached team but it’s been helped by their scheduling. San Francisco beat them in their opening game and they outscored the sputtering Seattle offense last week. The Rams are averaging 4.5 points per game, dead last in the NFL. Seattle averages only 7.5 points per game and they’re the only two teams averaging single digits.
The win over Seattle has to be something of a ‘letdown spot’ and the Rams’ track record in recent years validates that–they’re on a 0-6 SU/ATS run off a win over a division rival. They’ve got a game against conference rival Arizona on deck. Whether it’s St. Louis or Los Angeles this has been a horrible pointspread role for the Rams. As a road underdog of +3.5 to +7 points they’re 8-36 SU/14-30 ATS since 1992.
Arizona’s beatdown of Tampa Bay didn’t ‘expose’ the Bucs as ‘phony’. They’re a young team that caught a veteran squad that won 13 games last year coming off an embarrassing loss. The Bucs will be without running back Doug Martin but they won’t need him here. The Rams defense isn’t as good as it’s looked so far and their offense is putrid. There’s no way they can ‘trade points’ with the Bucs and Los Angeles will travel coast to coast to get beat by a touchdown or more.
BET TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -4 OVER LOS ANGELES RAMS