NFL Football Betting for September 29, 2016
Thursday Night NFL action this week as the Miami Dolphins take on the Cincinnati Bengals:
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 29, 2016:
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS:
Although both of these teams are 1-2 SU on the season it’s hard to say that they’ve ‘underachieved’. The Miami Dolphins played their guts out in Seattle in Week 1 before falling to the Seahawks 12-10, covering easily as +10.5 road underdogs. The next week they had to go to New England and were beaten 31-24 by the Patriots and the quarterback entry of Jimmy Garappolo and Jacoby Brissett. They got their first win of the season last Sunday as they took care of the Cleveland Browns 30-24 in overtime.
The Cincinnati Bengals have faced a nastier schedule than the Dolphins. They opened the year with a victory over the scrappy New York Jets winning 23-22 on a last minute Mike Nugent field goal. Their ‘dance card’ only got more difficult from there. In Week 2 they lost 24-16 at Pittsburgh and in Week 3 were beaten at home 29-17 by the Denver Broncos and their NFL best defense.
Miami was lucky to escape with a victory at home against Cleveland on Sunday as -10 home favorites. The Browns’ backup kicker Cody Parkey missed three field goals that could have won the game in regulation. In other words, the Dolphins could have very easily gone into Thursday’s game 0-3 which would have resulted in a completely difficult emotional dynamic. The fact they’re coming off a win, however, sets this game up nicely both for the Bengals and for us. All but the best teams invariably have more focus in the game following a loss than they do coming off a win and this ‘letdown’ tendency in this game could be accompanied by some phyiscal fatigue. Miami is coming off a short practice week following a hard fought overtime game on a Sunday that was particularly hot and muggy–even by South Florida standards. Miami has been a terrible ATS play off of ‘short weeks’ during recent years with a record of 8-18 ATS. They’ve also struggled in several other relevant situations–they’re on a 1-8 SU/ATS run playing on turf, a 5-15 SU/7-13 ATS run as an underdog as well as a 13-22 ATS run in all games. They’re 9-17 ATS in the last 3 years against AFC foes and 0-3 ATS against the AFC North. They have a glossy head to head ATS record against Cincinnati going 6-2 SU/ATS overall and 5-1 SU/ATS on the road. Since none of those games were in the past three seasons that doesn’t mitigate this situation.
Cincinnati won the AFC North last season and expected to have a good shot at repeating against the hapless Cleveland Browns and the aging Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Instead, Pittsburgh looks to be a very tough contender while the Bengals are staring at a three game losing streak with a loss here. That’s not acceptable for a team that lost only four games all season and were equally as adept on the road (6-2) as at home (6-2). No one has hit the ‘panic button’ but it’s a very tenuous situation that could potentially get worse. This isn’t owner Mike Brown’s ‘first rodeo’–he’s the son of legitimate legend Paul Brown so he’s been around football all of his life. He’s not quite to the ‘reading the riot act’ point but he made a very measured statement that clearly demonstrates that he’s a little ‘on edge’ and won’t be happy with a three game losing streak:
“Our core people have to play better. Our new people have to come on. We just aren’t hitting on all cylinders. We have to get there quickly or it will put us in a hole we can’t dig out of.”
The Bengals will get a boost from the return of outside linebacker Vontaze Burfict. They were hoping to have Pro Bowl tight end Tyler Eifert back in the lineup but he’s listed as ‘doubtful’ though not ruled out completely.
The injury situation is much more serious for the Miami Dolphins who have cluster injury issues on both sides of the ball. On defense, they’ll likely be without two starting linebackers as Koa Misi is definitely out and Jelani Jenkins is listed as ‘doubtful’. The offensive injuries could be just as problematic as starting center Mike Pouncey and backup Anthony Steen will miss this game.
Just a bad situation for Miami both emotionally and in terms of preparation. Over the past three seasons the Bengals have lost 2 or more consecutive games only twice–and they’re 2-0 SU/ATS in the subsequent game.
BET CINCINNATI BENGALS -7 OVER MIAMI DOLPHINS