NFL Monday Night Football Betting for September 12, 2016
Good start to the NFL season with two posted plays on Sunday and two underdogs winning outright as Tampa Bay and New England took care of business. We’ll try to keep on keeping on with a ‘best bet’ on the semi-traditional Week 1 NFL Monday Night Football double header:
NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 12, 2016:
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS:
Pittsburgh Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin deserves a ton of credit. He had some big shoes to fill taking over for the retiring Bill Cowher and there were plenty of critics who suggested that he had it easy assuming control of a proven winner with veterans up and down the roster two years removed from a Super Bowl title. In reality, it was a very challenging situation he walked into in 2007. He was trying to put his own mark on a team that had only two head coaches in the previous 37 years, both legitimate legends in Chuck Noll (the winningest coach in franchise history with 4 Super Bowl victories) and Cowher (the second winningest coach in franchise history who won another Super Bowl with the Steelers). The Steelers were coming off of an 8-8 season in 2006. That’s a tough spot to be in. Tomlin dealt with it like a viking (not a Minnesota Viking) and the Steelers rebounded to 10-6 in 2007 and improved to 12-4 in 2008 and won the 6th Super Bowl in franchise history. His 22 victories in his first two seasons are a franchise record and he’s the only coach in team history to win a divisional title in each of his first two seasons. Interestingly, Tomlin interviewed with the Miami Dolphins for their vacant head coaching position prior to seeking the Steelers’ job. He didn’t get the gig–San Diego Chargers’ offensive coordinator Cam Cameron did. Cameron went 1-15 in his only season with the Dolphins–and only season as a NFL head coach. Tomlin is heading into his 10th season as Steelers’ head coach with a record of 92-62. That’s an average of 10.22 wins per year. As for the Dolphins, they entered the 2016 season with their sixth different head coach since 2007 and have but one divisional title since they gave Cameron the nod over Tomlin.
It’s easy to criticize Tomlin for not winning a Super Bowl since 2008 and only playing in one other (Super Bowl XLV when Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay). That criticism misses the point of what he’s done with the Steelers which in some ways is more remarkable than merely winning an average of 10+ games per year. He’s been able to take what was the oldest team in the league, transition to a younger core group of players and essentially ‘rebuild’ without having a losing season and reaching the playoffs three times in the five years since their last Super Bowl appearance. Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is entering his 14th season at age 36 and there are other ‘elder statesmen’ in key positions like running back DeAngelo Williams (age 33) and defensive heart and soul James Harrison who remains one of the most fearsome dudes in the league at age 38. At some point there will obviously be some serious vacancies to fill as the older players retire but since Tomlin has done such a good job with this situation in the past there’s every reason to think he’ll do it going forward. As for Tomlin, at age 44 he’s the 5th youngest coach in the NFL yet still looks like a guy to mess with at serious peril.
Heading into the 2016 season there’s plenty of NFL experts–myself included–who think that this team can contend for a Super Bowl title. Despite the presence of the venerable Harrison the defense has been described as ‘young, fast and likes to hit‘. Roethlisberger slimmed down in the offseason and is as dangerous as ever–he had a great year statistically in 2015 despite missing four games. Pittsburgh had the #11 scoring defense in the NFL last year (19.9 PPG) and there’s plenty of reasons to think they’ll be better this year. They were also tied with Seattle for the #4 total offense (26.4 PPG) despite playing 25% of their games without Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh will be playing this game without suspended RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Martavis Bryant. Bryant is suspended for the year after missing drug tests in the offseason. His starting slot on the depth chart is now filled by Markus Wheaton but he’ll miss this game as he recovers from a shoulder injury. He’s expected back soon–he likely *could* have played here if necessary but the Steelers decided to err on the side of caution. Of course the Steelers *will* have Antonio Brown in the lineup and he’s pretty much the best wide receiver in football. The Roethlisberger to Brown combination has been described as ‘virtually unstoppable’. The one on one matchup with Redskins cornerback Josh Norman should be fun to watch. Norman has proclaimed himself the ‘best cornerback on earth’ and is definitely the highest paid. He was sent packing from the Carolina Panthers after a contract impasse and signed a $75 million deal with the Redskins. There’s some question about how good *he* really is as his performance in Carolina benefited greatly from the Panthers’ nasty pass rush. To the extent that the ‘head to head matchup’ between Norman and Brown matters (and in reality they seldom matter as much as the mainstream sports media suggests) I’d rather have Brown. What’s scary about Brown is that he’s not only the most talented wide receiver in the NFL but arguably the hardest working. Consider these quotes from his coaches:
“He wants to be the best, maybe the best ever,” offensive coordinator Todd Haley said.
“He is extremely talented,” coach Mike Tomlin said. “The secret is there is no secret. He is extremely talented and he has a work ethic to match. Together, it is lethal.”
Bell’s absence isn’t a huge deal as the Steelers will rely on classy veteran DeAngelo Williams who has answered the call in the past when the Steelers needed a steadying force at the running back position. At age 33, Williams is more effective than most younger running backs. He piled up 907 yards in 10 games last season and is generally a beast in the Pittsburgh backfield.
The Washington Redskins are heading in the right direction and coming off a somewhat improbable 9-7 season and NFC East title winning campaign. No one really expected things to turn around this quickly but it is the sort of thing that happens when you hire a competent football coach, in this case 6 times Arena Football ‘Arena Bowl’ champion (as a player)Jay Gruden. Gruden needed the 2014 season to clean up the mess left by Mike Shanahan but just one year later had the Skins back in the playoffs in what might have been the most impressive coaching job of last year. Kirk Cousins isn’t the athlete that RG III was at one point but he’s a very capable and efficient quarterback. He’s dealing with some high stakes this year and the Skins are making him ‘earn’ his status as the franchise quarterback. Despite setting a team record for passing yards in a season he wasn’t offered a long term deal, instead signing a one year contract worth $19.5 million. Some quarterbacks would consider that a ‘slap in the face’–particularly young (he’s 28) quarterbacks that have put up numbers on Sunday. In a world where unproven Brock Osweiler signs a 4 year, $72 million deal with Houston it’s probably tougher for Cousins to deal with. On the other hand, it’s understandable that Washington would want to be methodical about the process after dropping nearly $35 million on RG III ($21.1 million contract with a $13.8 million signing bonus) and getting only 14 regular season victories and 1 playoff loss in return. Washington is definitely a ‘work in progress’ and needs to improve on defense (#28 in the league in YPG in 2015) and bolster their running game (#26 in rushing YPG LY).
Even without Bell,Bryant and Wheaton the Steelers are the play. The Skins might look like a ‘live dog’ having gone 6-2 SU at home last year but none of the wins were against winning teams. They are on a 5-1 SU/ATS run as a home dog of +3 or less but the Steelers are a better balanced team and should be able to run the ball effectively against a so-so Skins’ stop unit and pass against a Washington secondary that improved with the signing of Norman but still lacks depth.
BET PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2.5 OVER WASHINGTON REDSKINS