NFL Monday Night Football Betting: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Week 5 concludes on Monday night with NFC South action between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS:
The big story about this game is Cam Newton or, more appropriately, the absence thereof. Newton is out for this game with a concussion and veteran Derek Anderson will get the start. One of the many issues plaguing the Panthers to this point is the poor protection Carolina’s offensive line is providing to Newton. He’s just getting hit too much. This could be a career crossroads for Newton who might need to modify his style to preserve his longevity. He’s definitely got the skills to do it and he should start thinking about becoming more of a prototypical quarterback sooner rather than later.
Tampa Bay has looked awful so far and Jameis Winston appears to be in a ‘sophomore slump’. The Bucs opened their season with a solid win over Atlanta but it’s been a dumpster fire every since. They’ve allowed 104 points in losses to Arizona, the LA Rams and Denver. Making matters worse, their offense has been stagnant scoring just 45 points in those three losses. Jameis Winston has thrown 8 touchdown passes but has also been intercepted 8 times and sacked 10 times. He’s got a quarterback rating of 72.9 which puts him #30 among the 32 starting quarterbacks.
Carolina hasn’t been much better on both sides of the ball and they’ve turned the ball over 11 times. Their defense has been porous and their offense erratic. The price on this game is still ridiculous. It reflects how the public has been quick to downgrade the Panthers with their early struggles (typical of post Super Bowl teams). It’s also the kneejerk overreaction to the loss of a starting quarterback. The ‘public’ has a perpetual tendency to overreact to injury and the bookmaker knows that they can usually hook them like a trout by shading the line. The move for value mindful bettors is to play *on* the team with the injury. The better the team and/or quarterback the more severe the overreaction but good teams are better equipped to deal with such a contingency (see Garappolo, Jimmy). I don’t go off on handicapping theory very often but file this one away for future reference–there are few things more overrated in sports betting than player injuries. Conversely, the injuries that most serious handicappers concern themselves with are the ones that don’t get a lot of coverage in the mainstream sports media (linemen, centers, punters).
In a strange way, the fact that Anderson is starting works in our favor in other ways than merely getting us good value. When a backup quarterback starts you’ll frequently see a more focused effort from the team. That’s really what Carolina needs at this point–a focused, disciplined and methodical game. The defense can put pressure on Winston who has not been getting good protection from his offensive line (sacked 5 times against Denver last week) and they know the tactics to shred the Bucs’ defense (scored 37 and 38 against Tampa Bay last year). No problem laying the price with a far superior team despite their early season struggles.
BET CAROLINA PANTHERS -5.5 OVER TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
BET CAROLINA/TAMPA BAY OVER 45.5