NFL Odds–A Drama Free Off-season Sets The Stage For 2016 NFL Football
The NFL Regular Season begins on September 8 and through two weeks of preseason play it has been unusually quiet in the pro football world. Actually, it’s the way it should be with talk of depth charts, injuries and who will win starting positions for the various teams. What has been absent is the sort of ‘soap opera’ off field drama that has characterized the NFL in recent years. On balance, this is a good thing but it’s hard to get used to. It’s almost uncomfortably quiet without it.
Tom Brady’s ‘Deflate Gate’ suspension was likely the biggest ‘off field’ story this Summer but even that ended with ‘a whimper, not a bang’. After the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals reinstated Brady’s four game suspension in April it looked like the situation could drag on indefinitely, perhaps with an ultimate showdown in the US Supreme Court.
It was obvious that NFL commissioner Roger Goodell took this personally and would do everything necessary to extract his ‘pound of flesh’ for Brady’s alleged misdeeds. At the same time, Brady had the resources–and the backing of his team’s ownership, coaches and players as well as the NFL Players’ Association–to continue fighting the suspension as long as necessary. On July 13, the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals denied a petition by Brady and the NFLPA on to rehear the suspension case, which meant that Brady’s final recourse to avoid the suspension would be through a Supreme Court decision. Two days later, Brady folded his hand with the following announcement on his Facebook page:
“I’m very grateful for the overwhelming support I’ve received from (team owner) Mr. (Robert) Kraft, the Kraft family, coach (Bill) Belichick, my coaches and teammates, the NFLPA, my agents, my loving family and most of all, our fans. It has been a challenging 18 months and I have made the difficult decision to no longer proceed with the legal process. I’m going to work hard to be the best player I can be for the New England Patriots and I look forward to having the opportunity to return to the field this fall.”
Brady will serve his suspension during the first four games of the regular season and be eligible to return on October 9th against the Cleveland Browns. Backup Jimmy Garrapolo will be the Patriots’ starting quarterback during his suspension. As for Brady he’ll be figuring out how to prepare for the season as best he can under the guidelines of his suspension. That won’t be easy since he can’t have any ‘football related communications’ with the Patriots nor can he engage in ‘football related activities’–such as playing catch with teammates–even if it happens away from New England’s practice facilities.
With all of the preseason NFL discussion focused on how the individual teams will fare–particularly New England during their four game stretch without Brady–here are some odds on the Patriots’ performance without their starting quarterback and on the first NFL coach to be fired during the regular season:
NFL 2016 SEASON PROP BET ODDS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS RECORD DURING TOM BRADY’S FOUR GAME SUSPENSION
4-0 +250
3-1 +150
2-2 +350
1-3 +950
0-4 +1750
Fans have a tendency to fear the worst when their starting quarterback is sidelined though the dynamic here is a bit different than it would be for an injury. The parameters of Brady’s absence are known–he’ll be out four games with the ‘worst case scenario’ that he’ll be slightly rusty upon his return. Backup Jimmy Garoppolo has looked very capable during the preseason and also knows the challenge he faces. He’s not being forced into a role that is over his head–he’s being prepared for this four game stretch by one of the best football coaches on the planet.
New England plays a tough game for their opener at Arizona (13-3 last year) and host Houston (9-7 last year) in their third game of the year. Their other two games during the Brady suspension are both at home against Miami (6-10) and Buffalo (8-8). The sports media invariably overreacts to injury or suspension to top players but by the end of Week 3 they’ll be praising Garoppolo.
FIRST NFL COACH TO BE FIRED DURING 2016 REGULAR SEASON
MIKE MCCOY (SAN DIEGO) +400
JIM CALDWELL (DETROIT) +600
JEFF FISHER (LOS ANGELES) +600
SEAN PAYTON (NEW ORLEANS) +1000
JASON GARRETT (DALLAS) +1000
FIELD (ALL OTHER COACHES) +200
NO COACHES FIRED DURING SEASON +500
This could be a very quiet regular season for NFL coaches–relatively speaking, at least. None appear to be in immediate danger so if there is a coach fired during the season it’ll have much to do with what happens on the field between now and then. Mike McCoy managed to survive a down year in San Diego and looks safe for now. Detroit fired team president Tom Lewand, general manager Martin Mayhew and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. If the Lions were itching to fire Caldwell they would have done so then but reportedly team owner Martha Firestone Ford likes him personally. If he can improve upon last year’s disappointing record he could hang around for awhile. Anything other than a disastrous start should let him survive the season. The Rams had no real discussion about firing Jeff Fisher after last season and it’s doubtful they’d do so during the season in any circumstance. Sean Payton is off back to back losing seasons in New Orleans but he’s also responsible for bringing the team their first Super Bowl championship and a long run of success. Saints’ owner Tom Benson has shown a preference for stability in the head coaching position. Even Jim Haslett lasted six seasons and he only had one playoff appearance. Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones likes Jason Garrett and that’s enough to keep him employed. Dallas has only fired one coach during the regular season and that was at a low point for the franchise.
Since 2000 there have been three years with no coaches fired during the NFL regular season. Overall, 26 coaches have been fired during the season since 2000 for an average of 1.73 per year. That also sets up the following ‘Over/Under’ bet:
TOTAL NUMBER OF NFL COACHES TO BE FIRED DURING 2016 REGULAR SEASON
OVER 1.5 -110
UNDER 1.5 -110
The theory behind the mid-season firing of NFL coaches is that it is a ‘last resort’ intended to ‘send a message to the team’. It doesn’t usually work out that way. Since 1996, teams that fire their coach during the regular season are 9-16 against the spread in their next game. Either the move is no longer seen as a ‘wake up call’ by the players or else they’re still the same lousy team with a new coach as they were with the one they fired.