NFL Sunday Night Football Betting for September 18, 2016
The second Sunday of the NFL football season concludes on Sunday night with a game between divisional rivals as the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers. These teams are expected to contend for the NFC North divisional crown this year. For the Packers, that’s ‘business as usual’. For the long suffering Vikings, however, it’s a new experience.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS:
Many of the usual catch-phrase spewers in the mainstream sports media dismissed the Minnesota Vikings when starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater went down for the year with a serious knee injury. He’s made an appearance at the Vikings practice facility of late but there’s no indication that he’ll be back in action before the start of next season. He was seen on crutches and was said to be in good spirits.
Bridgewater is a talented young player but the reality is that things won’t be much different without him. His primary job is to get the ball to Adrian Peterson. That will be the same primary job description for either Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford. The word is that Bradford will get the start here. Bradford got all of the first team reps at practice this week and has reportedly been studying the playbook like a conspiracy theorist studies the Zapruder film. That’s a good sign for the Vikings–Bradford has been injury prone at times during his career but he’s always been given high marks for his ‘quarterback smarts’.
As for the Packers, their quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been very successful and fairly durable throughout his career. There’s no reason to think that he won’t be as good as ever. Green Bay has a few injuries–they just ruled cornerback Sam Shields out for the Vikings game. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota will be without their best cornerback Xavier Rhodes.
This is likely a bigger game for Minnesota than for Green Bay. The Vikings are back playing indoors and this will be the first ‘real’ game at US Bank Stadium. It will be *extremely* loud which will make for great television but is unlikely to have any impact on the game itself. The Vikings quarterback situation isn’t as big of an issue as the casual fans and mainstream media think it is–and particularly if Bradford is up to speed with the playbook. Minnesota is a solid team on both sides of the ball. They’ve got the superior pass rush which could make things more difficult for Aaron Rodgers. He’s always been good at avoiding sacks but he could be rushed and that’s something that doesn’t always show up on the stat sheet. On offense, few teams can play the pounding, physical style that Minnesota can with Peterson at running back.
What’s interesting about this series is how competitive its been from a pointspread standpoint dating back to when the Vikings weren’t a very good team. Green Bay has won 3 of the last 4 games straight up but the teams are 2-2 against the spread. That’s business as usual for the Vikings and Packers. Since 1992 Green Bay is 28-21 SU/26-24 ATS against Minnesota. On the Vikings home field the Packers hold a 13-11 SU advantage but the Vikings hold a 13-11 pointspread advantage. It’s too early to suggest that the Packers are ‘regressing’ but it’s fairly obvious that the Vikings are finally heading in the right direction.
The Packers have been a very good favorite over the past three years going 23-6 SU/18-10 ATS. Minnesota, meanwhile, has been excellent in most situations over the past three seasons. The Vikings are 25-9 ATS and 14-5 ATS as an underdog. They’re also 17-8 ATS against conference rivals and 12-5 ATS at home. Not sure that the only reason that Green Bay is favored is the name on their jersey.
BET MINNESOTA VIKINGS +2.5 OVER GREEN BAY PACKERS