NHL Best Bets for March 9, 2016
Six plays in Wednesday NHL action among them some big matchups including Chicago vs. St. Louis and Washington vs. Los Angeles. Before we get to that we’ll talk more about late season hockey handicapping, this time focusing specifically on how good teams approach the stretch run:
NHL TEAMS USUALLY DON’T TAKE THEIR FOOT OFF THE GAS:
Yesterday we talked about how bad teams and teams gunning for a playoff spot approach the later part of the NHL season. Today we’ll look at how the top teams approach late season action.
Teams in every sport approach this time of year differently. In the NFL, for example, once a team has clinched a playoff spot (and maybe home field advantage on top of that) they’ll start to rest starters to help them recover from nagging injury or in some cases just to ‘protect’ them so they won’t get hurt before the playoffs begin. To some extent baseball does that as well–at the very least they’ll lengthen their bench and bullpen and make some changes to the pitching rotation. NBA basketball players may be the softest athletes of any sport and they’ll take any excuse they can not to play. You’ll often see them rested in a late season situation. For that matter, you’ll often see them rested during the regular season.
Hockey is a completely different animal from the other three major North American team sports. It’s a game of momentum and finesse which means that giving top players ‘time off’ heading into the playoffs isn’t necessarily a good idea. One reason you seldom see teams do this is simply because they don’t have that luxury. The NHL is a brutally competitive game and it’s a struggle for most teams just to get into the playoffs. In addition, teams want to get a favorable seeding and home ice advantage. In some cases, they’ll try to make sure they play (or don’t play) certain opponents.
Just look at the standings–in the Central Division the top three spots are separated by a total of three points. Nashville is in fourth place with 80 points but they’re playing the best hockey in the division and could be in the mix very soon. The same situation exists in the Pacific Division, with the top three teams separated by a combined three points. That also makes the Western Conference race–and the two wildcard spots–very stressful. The top seven teams in the West are separated by a total of 8 points.
Over in the Eastern Conference, the Washington Capitals have run away with everything making them something of an anomaly by NHL standards. The Capitals are 18 points ahead of their nearest competitor in both the Eastern Conference and Central Division. We’ll talk more about them in a moment. After the Caps, it’s not quite the logjam it is out West but still a very competitive situation. The Rangers and Islanders are separated by three points for the second position in the Metropolitan Division. The top seven teams in the Eastern Conference (minus Washington) are separated by a total of nine points. There are still seven teams with a realistic shot of earning one of the Eastern Conference’s two wild card berths.
So most teams can’t afford to take their foot off the gas. What about the Washington Capitals who are nearing a point where they could lose the rest of their games and still win the Division and Conference? I’ve been expecting to see Washington start to ‘take it easy’ with nothing left to focus on before the playoffs. They still might do this closer to the end of the regular season. But I sure don’t expect them to take it easy. Part of this is the history of the franchise–they’ve had a number of good teams that finished the regular season high in the standings only to be eliminated from the playoffs prematurely. Part of this is the nature of the game–if everything is ‘clicking’ with the Capitals and that’s been the case all season long there’s no real reason to mess with it. Sure, there’s a risk of a star player getting injured but at this stage of the game it’s more important to maintain continuity than it is to give players some rest. In fact, too much rest is typically counterproductive and it usually results in teams starting the playoffs in less than top form. That’s something that NHL teams can’t afford.
BEST BETS FOR MARCH 9, 2016:
NEW YORK ISLANDERS AT TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS:
The New York Islanders got some bad news today as they learned that starting goaltender Jaroslav Halak will miss at least six weeks of action with a groin injury. That puts a lot of pressure on backup Thomas Greiss but so far he’s responded well. The goaltending situation shouldn’t matter here as the Islanders are facing the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs are essentially non-competitive at this point. Mike Babcock knew this was a long term rebuild when he accepted the job and that season one would be devoted primarily to ‘cleaning up the mess’. They’ve done everything they can to clear longterm contracts off the books and slash payroll. They’re basically doing what Buffalo did last year, all but ‘tanking’ games in hopes of getting the top pick in the NHL draft. That’s why Toronto is 1-7-2 in their last ten games and why there’s no reason to expect that to improve before the end of the season. The Islanders, meanwhile, are in a pitched battle with their arch rival New York Rangers for second place in the Metropolitan Division. They’ve been playing excellent hockey of late, going 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. There’s just no reason to think that Toronto will have anything for them in this matchup. The Leafs have been awful at home this year with a record of 9-13-9. They’ve not done well when stepping up in class and facing good teams. They’re 10-20 on the year against teams over .500 including a 2-7 mark in the second half of the season.
BET NEW YORK ISLANDERS -165 OVER TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS