NHL Hockey Best Bets for March 10, 2016
Only six games on the NHL schedule for tonight but all have playoff implications of some sort. Here are our best bets:
CAROLINA HURRICANES AT BOSTON BRUINS:
It’s been a strange season for the Boston Bruins. Not a bad season, mind you, but very atypical for a Bruins’ team and definitely not what was expected by anyone. Before the season Boston was dismissed as a team that could go nowhere but down. One NHL analyst simply asked “where are the goals going to come from?” The thinking was that Boston would be decent defensively and have good goaltending with Tuuka Rask but would lose games because of what was perceived to be a sputtering offense. It hasn’t quite worked out that way. The Bruins are one of three NHL teams averaging 3 or more goals per game (3.00). That puts them #3 in scoring behind Washington and Dallas (tied at 3.18 goals per game). And oddly enough the defensive play–a trademark of Boston hockey for decades–has been kind of shaky. The Bruins have the #19 goals against average in the league (2.69).
And now the good news for Boston hockey fans–instead of ‘going nowhere but down’ and competing for a lottery position the Bruins are competing for the Atlantic Division title. They enter tonight’s game tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning for first place, both teams at 83 points. That’s two better than the Florida Panthers who are right behind with 81 points. Boston has done an excellent job keeping pace with the red hot Lightning–the Bolts are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games but Boston has gone 7-2-1 to keep pace.
The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, are still in the hunt for a wild card spot though they’re going to have to improve their form and deal with a number of other teams to get there. They’re currently four points behind the Detroit Red Wings for the final wild card spot in the East but have to get past the Philadelphia Flyers (73 points). There’s also a pack of teams right behind them: Ottawa with 70 points, New Jersey with 69 points and Montreal with 68 points. Carolina is just 4-5-1 in their last ten games and could desperately use a win.
The Bruins are sizable favorites in this game but that makes since because they’re playing on home ice, right? Not so much–Boston has been terrible at home this year going 15-16-4. To put it into context–two of the bottom three teams in the West (Calgary and Edmonton) have better home records. Road play has been the salvation for Boston during this bizarre season and they’re tied with the Washington Capitals for the best road record in the NHL (23-7-3). Carolina is just an average road team (13-14-5) but they’re going to be our play. You can’t lay -200 with a substandard home team.
BET CAROLINA HURRICANES +175 OVER BOSTON BRUINS
WINNIPEG JETS AT DETROIT RED WINGS:
The Winnipeg Jets are one of the most disappointing teams in the NHL. They were expected to be in the competitive mix in the tough Central Division this year after making the playoffs last season. It hasn’t happened and the only ‘mix’ Winnipeg is in is for last place in the Western Conference. They’ve had some injuries this year but the bigger problem is that their strengths last year–defense and goaltending–have not been anywhere near good enough this year. Winnipeg has the #26 goals against average in the league (2.95 goals per game). To put that in perspective, that’s worse than Edmonton and Toronto. When you’re a bottom ten defensive team and a #20 offensive team you’re not going to win a lot of hockey games. Special teams are no salvation either–the Jets are #29 on the power play and #25 on the penalty kill.
The Detroit Red Wings are currently hanging on to the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference but the reality is that they’re not much better. The Wings have lost three straight and are 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. Their statistical profile doesn’t look like much either–the Wings are #22 in goals scored per game (2.5), #16 in goals against (2.6), #22 on the power play (17.3%) and #18 on the penalty kill (80.4%). That’s not the profile of a playoff team, to be sure. They will have starting goalie Petr Mrazek back in net tonight after Jimmy Howard looked awful in a 5-3 loss in Columbus last time out.
Not much to choose from in this game but take a look at the price–Detroit is a -200 favorite? This game is clearly closer than the price indicates and underscores that the Wings are a team taht is consistently overrated by the betting public. We’ll take the price with the visiting Jets.
BET WINNIPEG JETS +175 OVER DETROIT RED WINGS
OTTAWA SENATORS AT FLORIDA PANTHERS:
Florida was supposed to fade after the All Star Break but they’re still here and still in contention for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. They haven’t been playing their best hockey (4-3-3 L10) but they’ve managed to scrap together enough points to stay just two points back of division leaders Boston and Tampa Bay. Making that more impressive–the Bruins (7-2-1 L10) and Lightning (8-1-1 L10) have been red hot over the past couple of weeks.
Tonight they’ll host the Ottawa Senators who technically are still alive for a playoff spot. The Senators are five points back of the Detroit Red Wings for the final wild card spot in the East but have to get past Carolina and Philadelphia first. They also have to hold off the two teams nipping at their heels–New Jersey (1 point behind) and Montreal (2 points back). The Senators are a very porous team defensively–they’re one of only four NHL teams giving up an average of 3 or more goals per game. Florida has been good at home this season (20-9-5) and while their special teams haven’t been much this year they have a top ten goals against average–2.4 goals per game ranking #7 in the NHL. Ottawa looks like a pretender while Florida continues to defy their critics and compete in the Atlantic Division race. The Panthers need a win to keep pace with Boston and Tampa and they should get it tonight.
BET FLORIDA PANTHERS -165 OVER OTTAWA SENATORS