NHL Hockey Best Bets for March 4, 2016
Short card of NHL action for Friday with only three games on the board. Here’s our best bet recommendations:
NEW YORK RANGERS AT WASHINGTON CAPITALS:
Were the circumstances different we’d be backing up the Brinks Truck to bet on the Rangers at this huge price. Of course the fact that the circumstances *aren’t* different are the reason for this big price. This is technically a game between the top two teams in the Metropolitan Division but that description doesn’t indicate just how dominant that the Caps have been this season. 47 wins, 12 regulation losses, 4 OT losses for 98 points. Only one other team in the league (Anaheim) has fewer than 20 regulation losses (they’ve got 19). The Capitals differential is +62. The next best is the Chicago Blackhawks with +28. Caps are 26-5-2 at home and 21-7-2 on the road. They may not have a shot at topping the all time record of 132 set by the 76-77 Montreal Canadiens but they could become one of the four teams to hit 120 points since then. The scary thing about the Caps–they’re not making this points plateau a priority but they keep winning. At some point you’d think that Barry Trotz would take his foot off the gas and rest some of his key players but he’s not shown a sign of doing that. Then again, hockey is a game of finesse and continuity and maybe he *won’t* do that. There have been plenty of good Caps teams over the years that entered the playoffs with sterling records but have nothing to show for it. Maybe Trotz thinks that keeping the team sharp is worth the calculated risk of injuries.
The Rangers lost 4-1 at Columbus last night and you could make the case that it was a ‘lookahead spot’. I don’t buy that–if the Rangers had ‘circled’ this game they would have flip flopped their goalie rotation and started backup Antti Raanta against the Blue Jackets and Henrik Lundqvist here. In my view it’s ‘just another game’ for both teams. It’s also my view that this Rangers team just isn’t that good. It’s a corollary of how everyone gets hysterical when a snowstorm approaches New York–they just have an inaccurate view of their importance in the world circa 2016. The Rangers are a good team but not ‘Stanley Cup contender’ good. Caps get the win and run their record against the Rangers to 4-1 on the season.
BET WASHINGTON CAPITALS -185 OVER NEW YORK RANGERS
EDMONTON OILERS AT COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS:
One of the best ways to gain an edge in sports betting is look for teams on the rise (or on the decline) that haven’t gained traction with the general public. Translation–they’re under the radar and the betting lines reflect their form incorrectly. At this point in the season we’re used to the Edmonton Oilers just playing out the string and showing no real effort. That isn’t going to happen this year and I’m going to look to play on Edmonton often, especially in the near term since no one has noticed what is going on in Canada’s Oil Town.
On February 23, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli read the team the proverbial ‘riot act’ and came just short of questioning their manhood. He also cleaned house of some malcontents and players that didn’t fit into his vision for the team. He sent four promising players–Lauren Brossoit, Darnell Nurse, Jordan Oesterle and Jujhar Khaira–down to the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL. This will get them more playing time and help them improve their game. The timing of the move also made them eligible for the Condors’ playoff roster if they can scrap into the post season–and this influx of talent will help a lot. If Bakersfield does make the playoffs it gives these young players the opportunity to play in ‘meaningful’ games which is a key component of a young player’s development.
What hasn’t been widely reported is that the Oilers quietly got bigger and more physical at the trade deadline. The Edmonton Journal pointed out that the role players brought in to fill the roster vacancies have one thing in common:
Maroon (age 27) is 6’3, 230 lbs.
Cracknell (30) is 6’2, 210
Pardy (31) is 6’3, 227
Gazdic (26) is 6’4, 225
Nikitin (29) is 6’4, 217
Yep–these guys are *big*, physical and experienced. None of them really fit into the Oilers’ longterm plans but it has demonstrated that Chiarelli was right when he said that the team needed to get more size and physicality. Anyway, consider what the Oilers have done since Chiarelli’s ‘riot act’ speech. They went down to Southern California to face the top two teams in the Pacific Division and teams known for their tough play. Edmonton lost both games but played like rabid wolverines losing 2-1 to the Kings and 2-1 in overtime to the Ducks. They returned home to face the New York Islanders and haven’t lost since, winning three straight games (Islanders at home, at Buffalo and Philadelphia) by a combined score of 9-2. The maturation of Connor McDavid has been a big component. It took McDavid about a week at the start of the season to get his bearings and ever since then he’s been the most exciting player in the NHL. He didn’t lose a step during his shoulder injury absence and since his return has played sixteen games scoring 8 goals with 18 assists for 26 points. More impressively, he’s become the legitimate team leader and will likely be given the ‘C’ over the Summer. He’s the best kind of leader–quiet, leading by example and focused entirely on team success. McDavid has the skills to run away with the rookie goal scoring title if that’s what he wanted but he’s shown a John Stockton-like knack of getting his teammates involved.
Oilers are the play here.
BET EDMONTON OILERS +145 OVER COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS