NHL Hockey Best Bets for March 7, 2016
Seven games on the NHL board for Monday but among them some excellent matchups. We’ll get to our ‘best bets’ in a moment but first I wanted to share some general NHL handicapping concepts for this time of year:
LATE SEASON NHL HANDICAPPING CONCEPTS:
Most sports have a different ‘vibe’ in the early and midseason than they do late in the year. This is definitely true in all of the North American team sports and in hockey it could be the most significant. Part of the reason for this is the parity in the NHL. Playoff races are seldom decided early. Right now there are any number of teams trying to make the playoffs and of those who are virtually guaranteed to get in seeding is crucial. This season is somewhat anomalous as the Washington Capitals have run away with the best overall record and with it the Eastern Conference and Metropolitan Division titles. In every other race there’s still a lot to play for. The top three teams in the Atlantic Division are separated by a total of 3 points. The Central Division race is tightening up and the top three teams are within 2 points of each other. Nashville and Minnesota are both playing well and could soon join the mix.
Hockey is a different sport in March than it is in November. In light of that, here are some important concepts for anyone trying to bet late season hockey:
1) PAY ATTENTION TO TEAMS WITH A HUGE LEAD OR A ‘LOCK’ ON THE POSTSEASON. BET THEM WITH CAUTION: Of course I’m referring to the Washington Capitals here. The Caps are an excellent team–statistically the best in the league–but with an 18 point lead atop the Eastern Conference they’re already looking ahead to the playoffs. So far they haven’t done much to suggest that they’ll be resting veteran players or similarly taking advantage of their huge lead in the standings but that could happen at any time. More importantly, their lack of urgency makes them a tough team to bet in any matchup with a team that is still playing for something and particularly a good team (eg: tonight’s game against Anaheim). The Capitals are definitely going to be a factor in the postseason but until then its going to be tough for them to get ‘up’ for a particular matchup.
2) THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP: The hottest teams in the NHL at the moment are teams that played poorly in the first half of the season. The Anaheim Ducks were an embarrassment starting the year 1-9-1. They were so inept that they put coach Bruce Boudreau at jeopardy of losing his job the season after they reached the Western Conference Finals. Things have changed dramatically–at this writing they’ve won 11 straight games and look like the physical, grinding team that everyone hated to play last year. The Tampa Bay Lightning weren’t quite as bad but underachieved badly in the first half of the year. Heading into tonight’s game against Philadelphia they’ve won 9 straight. The Nashville Predators looked completely outclassed in the Central Division prior to the All Star Game. Since then they’ve taken points in 12 straight games and are 7-0-3 in their last ten. It’s important to not view these teams based on the first half–they’re showing their true colors now.
3) THE GARBAGE SINKS TO THE BOTTOM: The opposite is also true–teams that looked promising early in the year often go the other way. Just making the playoffs is tough in the NHL. Teams that looked promising as ‘surprise division leaders’ early in the year inevitably fade. Vancouver and Arizona, for example, were at one point near the top of the Pacific Division. Now it’s unlikely that either will make the playoffs. The teams that can hit bumps in the road and recover are usually veteran, battle tested teams. Upstarts seldom turn things around when they start to implode.
4) THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF LOSING TEAMS: There’s a natural tendency to want to bet against losing teams late in the year regardless of the price. But it’s important to watch them closely and evaluate how they’re playing. Edmonton and Calgary are at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. The Oilers have started to play competitive hockey and given the makeup of the Connor McDavid led team I doubt they’ll quit on the season. The Calgary Flames, meanwhile, could go the opposite way. They enter tonight’s action with a 2-7-1 record in their last 10 games. At the extreme there are teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs that are essentially ‘tanking’ games to get a top draft choice.
BEST BETS FOR MONDAY:
BUFFALO SABRES AT TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS:
As noted above, the Toronto Maple Leafs have little interest in the rest of this season. They’ve done everything possible to shed payroll and are tanking games hoping to get the top choice in the NHL draft–almost certainly forward Austin Matthews. The Sabres did the exact same thing last year and are a year ahead of Toronto in the rebuilding process. These teams may be in different countries but they’re just separated by 99 miles making this a ‘geographical rivalry’. It’s a game that both teams will want to win but for Toronto there’s one problem–they just don’t have the personnel. The Sabres are already putting together a nice team led by Sam Reinhart and last year’s #2 draft pick Jack Eichel.
BET BUFFALO SABRES -110 OVER TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
WASHINGTON CAPITALS AT ANAHEIM DUCKS:
We teased this play in the ‘late season handicapping concept’ discussion above. The Capitals have pulled away from the entire league. They lead the second place team in the Eastern Conference by 18 points. They lead the top two teams in the Western Conference (Chicago and Dallas are currently tied) by 13 points. In other words, they’re in a position to coast into the postseason. The Ducks are the NHL’s hottest team and come into this matchup having won 11 straight games. They started the season 1-9-1 and now have a legitimate shot at winning the Western Conference. This is a case of motivation–the Capitals and Ducks could very well meet again in the Stanley Cup Finals but there’s no reason for Washington to worry about the matchup now.
BET ANAHEIM DUCKS -130 OVER WASHINGTON CAPITALS