NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for May 8, 2016
Just one game on Sunday as the Tampa Bay Lightning try to become the first NHL team to book a date in the conference finals:
NEW YORK ISLANDERS AT TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING:
The New York Islanders probably deserved a better fate than to lose two straight games on their home ice in Brooklyn by one goal in OVERTIME no less. The Islanders played well in both games and if you look at the stat lines for Game Three and Game Four everything is pretty much dead even. That being said, the two games have a similar narrative form that underscores what the Lightning have working for them and the Islanders don’t.
GAME THREE: Islanders and Lightning are tied heading into the third period. Josh Bailey scores on the power play to give New York a 3-2 lead at the 2:27 mark. They hold this lead for less than a minute when Vladislav Namestnikov ties it up for Tampa Bay. The game remains tied at 3-3 until Cal Clutterbuck gives the Islanders a 4-3 lead with less than 10 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately for New York they can’t hold that lead and Nikita Kucherov ties it up at 19:21. The game goes into overtime and it’s not the three overtime Predators/Sharks war from other night–Brian Boyle ‘puts the biscuit in the basket’ at 2:48 of overtime. TAMPA BAY 5 NEW YORK 4 Tampa leads the series 2-1.
GAME FOUR: Kyle Okposo scores for the Islanders less than five minutes into the game to give New York a 1-0 lead. That lead stands up until the 7:49 mark of the third period when once again Nikita Kucherov scores the game tying goal. It goes to overtime and this time it’s over in less than two minutes when Jason Garrison scores at 1:34. TAMPA BAY 2 NEW YORK 1 Tampa leads the series 3-1.
Notice the common themes in the two games:
–Islanders hold the lead late into the third period on home ice but can’t hold on for the win.
–Tampa Bay scores a crucial tying goal late. Actually, make that Nikita Kucherov scores the game tying goal late.
–The overtime is over before it begins with Tampa Bay victorious.
The difference between the two teams is apparent to anyone who watches a lot of hockey (eg: myself). If you’ll recollect all the way back to the New York Islanders/Florida series when much was made about New York winning their first playoff series since 1993. That’s great and all and good for them for ending that 23 year streak. Now they’re a team that has won only one playoff series since 1993. The problem is that they’re playing a team that knows how to win in the playoffs. Lest we forget, the Lightning played in the Stanley Cup Finals last year. They lost to the Chicago Blackhawks but the key phrase is ‘they played in the Stanley Cup Finals last year’. This team has playoff experience as a cohesive unit. They know how to win close games and how to ‘win ugly’ on the road. They know how to deal with the pressure of overtime. They’ve got plenty of world class snipers like Kucherov and more importantly a team full of players that aren’t afraid to take the shot when its there.
It’s all very sudden how this series has gone from a 1-1 tie in a matchup that looked dead even to a 3-1 Tampa lead and a series in which the Lightning advancing is almost a foregone conclusion. Statistically, things don’t look good for the Islanders. Only 10% of teams down 3-1 in a NHL playoff series come back and win. The Islanders in particular don’t seem like the sort of team that can pull it off–they can’t protect a late lead at home and can’t make it more than five minutes into an overtime so what is to suggest they can win three straight games facing elimination? Statistics also suggest that the Islanders’ season will end at the Amalie Arena in the ‘Cigar City‘. Home teams up 3-1 in a best of seven NHL series win game six just under 65% of the time. I just don’t see the Islanders as having the mental toughness to go down to Tampa and win knowing that all it gets them is another date facing elimination and all that would get them is a Game 7 in Tampa.
Thomas Greiss has played very well dating back to the regular season in place of injured Jaroslav Halak. Tampa’s Ben Bishop, meanwhile, has entered the realm of elite goaltenders this season. This has been an underreported story by the hockey media but was noted by the ‘powers that be’ who have nominated Bishop for the Vezina Trophy. Greiss has played well but his story is just like the rest of his team–the lack of playoff experience against an opposing goalie that has played in the Stanley Cup Finals. At one point, the cliche in every sport was that a team had to ‘get there and lose’ before they would be capable of winning meaningful playoff games. That’s not really the case any more in the age of free agency but for the Islanders at least it still seems to apply. A lot of interesting offseason changes could be in store for this team. Travis Hamonic has requested a trade to a Western Conference team to be closer to his family in Western Canada. He’s dealt with that situation like a pro all year so expect the Islanders to do him the solid and grant his request. Signs are pointing toward him becoming a teammate of Connor McDavid in Edmonton. Basically, the team needs to go back to square one and rebuild the supporting cast around legit superstar John Tavares. Unfortunately for the Islanders and their fans, their offseason will begin on Sunday.
BET TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING -170 OVER NEW YORK ISLANDERS