NHL Hockey Betting: Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals
Only one Stanley Cup playoff game for Thursday night but it sure looks like a good one as the Presdient’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals host the red hot Pittsburgh Penguins in the first game of a Best of Seven second round series.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS AT WASHINGTON CAPITALS:
Capitals’ goalie Braden Holtby is now officially a Vezina Trophy finalist along with LA’s Jonathan Quick and Tampa Bay’s Ben Bishop. Holtby will be expected to come up big in this series if the Washington Capitals are to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Pittsburgh and Washington are a very even match based on the statistics alone: The Capitals finished #2 in goals scored per game, #2 in goals against per game, #5 on the power play and #3 on the penalty kill. The Penguins weren’t especially good on the power play (#16) but otherwise have an impressive statistical line: 3rd in goals per game, 6th in goals against per game and 5th on the penalty kill.
The Penguins are a tale of two halves. They looked very mediocre in the first half of the season and then became the NHL’s hottest team down the stretch. Pittsburgh won 14 of their last 16 regular season games before eviscerating the New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs. Even the Washington media is admitting that the Penguins’ offense is far more potent than the Capitals. The Caps can score goals but didn’t exactly set the nets on fire against Philadelphia.
Although the focus of the mainstream sports media will be on the individual matchup between Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby it’s likely the ‘supporting cast’ that will determine the outcome of the series. One important role player is Pittsburgh’s 21 year old rookie goaltender Matt Murray. With Marc-Andre Fleury still sidelined with a concussion it looks like Murray will be ‘the man’ for the immediate future. He was 9-2-1 during the regular season and a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs. Suffice to say that he doesn’t ‘play like a rookie’. The DC area media is speculating that the ‘pressure’ of playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs will eventually get to him but it sure didn’t look like it in the first round. Murray came into Game Three with a mountain of pressure on him–he was expected to ‘steady the ship’ after a bad game by backup Jeff Zatkoff in Game Two. The series was tied at this point and New York appeared to be gaining in confidence after stealing a win on the Penguins’ home ice. No big deal–all Murray did was win Games Three and Four at Madison Square Garden 3-1 and 5-0. If making your first playoff start at the most famous arena in the world doesn’t get to Murray I’m not sure anything will.
Washington head coach Barry Trotz is already making some adjustments in the Capitals’ lines trying to produce more offense five on five. Pittsburgh has a two headed monster in their first two lines–Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The Caps will try to get some offense out of Marcus Johansson as Trotz has moved him from the third to second line. The Capitals are pretty healthy at this stage of the playoffs–defenseman Brooks Orpik is listed as ‘questionable’ but every indication is that he’ll play on Thursday. Pittsburgh has a longer list of injured players but the only names that haven’t been there for over a month are Fleury (still listed as ‘questionable’) and RW Beau Bennett listed as ‘questionable’ with his injured shoulder.
Pittsburgh has history on their side. This is the eighth time the Penguins and Capitals have met in the playoffs–Pittsburgh has won seven of these series. At least Washington has some solace knowing that the X-Box EA Sports video game simulation predicted that they would win the 2016 Stanley Cup.
The Capitals also have a red hot power play that through Game Three scored almost at will against the Philadelphia Flyers. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill will need to stop the Caps on man advantage situations if they’re going to advance in this series. That being said, I’ve got some concern about Washington–more specifically how easily the Flyers took over the momentum in the final three games of the series. It’s easy to dismiss these games as simply a function of Washington running into a red hot goalie in Michal Neuvirth but that’s not really a satisfying answer. Washington won the first three games of the Philly series by a combined score of 12-2. They were outscored 4-2 in the final three games though they were able to get the 1-0 win they needed to win the series. The Penguins, meanwhile, won the last their series against the New York Rangers–presumably a better team than Philadelphia–by a combined score of 14-4. Neuvirth was playing out of his mind during the series with Washington but if this is all it takes to get the President’s Trophy winners out of sync it doesn’t bode well going forward.
In many ways, this is a battle of consistency against form. The Capitals ripped through the NHL regular season this year but did it as quietly as it can be done. They didn’t go on many extended winning streaks but they were consistent. That’s great for a long haul season but now they’re facing a team in torrid form. Pittsburgh has won 18 of their last 21 games dating back to the regular season. Mainstream sports media wags insist that ‘momentum’ is the key to victory in the playoffs regardless of the sport and we’re going to see that play out now. Not only does Pittsburgh have freight train like momentum dating back to the regular season they came out of the series against the Rangers firing on all cylinders. Washington didn’t–at least on offense. Credit to Braden Holtby for preventing the Flyers’ series from going to a seventh game. Not sure if the Capitals can ‘dictate tempo’ against the Penguins. They could outlast the low scoring Flyers but they’ll have to score some goals to beat Pittsburgh in this game and this series. Getting plus money on both wagers I’m willing to bet they can’t do it.
BET PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +115 OVER WASHINGTON CAPITALS (GAME ONE)
BET PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +100 OVER WASHINGTON CAPITALS (SERIES)