NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for April 18, 2016

Only three Stanley Cup playoff games on the board for today:

WASHINGTON CAPITALS AT PHILADELPHIA FLYERS:

There’s nothing that sums up the Philadelphia Flyers’ series against the Washington Capitals more than the now-viral video of goaltender Steve Mason giving up the easiest goal in the history of the NHL. It may have been tipped at center ice but it was still as weak a goal as you’ll see in the NHL–200 feet from the opposing goal line. Even Washington goaltender Braden Holtby felt the pain of his adversary saying “I couldn’t even watch the replay of it. Even as an opposing team, you want to earn your goals and whatnot (instead of) weird bounces like that. I feel for him.” The irony is that as this was transpiring the TV announce team was talking about how well the Flyers had played in the first period. They had done a nice job neutralizing the best regular season team in the NHL and put 19 shots on Caps’ goaltender Holtby–but just couldn’t get any breaks. Holtby ended up with 41 saves for the game and the Caps went on to win 4-1.

Philadelphia returns home in an 0-2 hole and they were decent on their own ice this year with a 23-10-8 record. Of course Washington’s road record is better than their home record (27-10-4). So far playoffs Washington is just like regular season Washington–they don’t seem to get rattled even when things don’t go their way. It’s got to be frustrating for a team like the Flyers to throw the proverbial ‘kitchen sink’ at the Caps like they did in Game Two only to watch as Washington shrugs off their best effort. Another thing that has to be frustrating–the Flyers are now 0 for 8 on the power play. The Capitals’ penalty kill is really good so it’s not that the Flyers are stinking it up. The Capitals were third on the kill during the regular season and may be even better now.

Just can’t see Washington losing this game or this series. They’re playing with the quiet confidence of a champion. They’re not obliterating the Flyers but doing enough to win. Washington’s numbers this year are absurd–and I’m not just talking about 120 points. Most teams struggle after playing their first game on the road after a long homestand. Not Washington–they’re 8-1 +7.2 units in that spot this year. The Caps are 30-10 +13.2 units against opponents with losing records and 14-5 the second half of the season. In a road game where the total is 5 or less they’re 19-9 +8.1 units. This isn’t the old no defense Caps or the old all defense Caps–this team can beat you how ever you want to play them. One thing working in Philadelphia’s favor–they’ve won 5 of the last 7 at home against Washington and split four regular season games with Washington.

BET WASHINGTON CAPITALS -150 OVER PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

DALLAS STARS AT MINNESOTA WILD:

The offense situation for the Minnesota Wild is so ugly that the media is reporting that the team “recalled defenseman Mike Reilly from AHL affiliate Iowa in search of offense”. Reilly had one goal and six assists for the Wild in 29 games this year. The offense has completely gone missing in the absence of wingers Zach Parise and Thomas Vanek, both listed as ‘out indefinitely’. Sports media types often make a bigger deal than they should about ‘entering the playoffs with momentum’. That being said, the other extreme is a *real* bad situation. The Wild have now lost seven straight dating back to the regular season. Their last win came on March 29 at home against Chicago. In their last 7 games they’ve scored a total of 7 goals. You don’t have to be Barry Melrose to realize that averaging one goal a game isn’t going to work. They did a decent job limiting the Stars’ chances in Game Two but the problem now is that their offense scares no one. The Stars know that all they need to do is get a lead and it’s going to be pretty easy to maintain. Minnesota has beaten Dallas once in seven tries including the regular season (winning 2-1 at Dallas on January 9) but have won 4 of the last 7 head to head at home. Dallas might keep Tyler Seguin out of the lineup on Monday which speaks volumes to how much they fear Minnesota the way they’re playing right now.

BET DALLAS STARS -125 OVER MINNESOTA WILD

LOS ANGELES KINGS AT SAN JOSE SHARKS:

The Sharks won two from the Kings at the Staples Center. No big deal–the Bizarro World Sharks *always* win on the road. They have problems playing at home where the only teams with worse home ice records are lottery bound. San Jose was 18-20-3 at home. By way of comparison, consider that Edmonton was 19-20-6 at home.

BET LOS ANGELES KINGS +110 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.