NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for April 19, 2016
Four games on the board for Tuesday with two starting at 7:05 PM Eastern and the other two at 9:35 PM Eastern:
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING AT DETROIT RED WINGS:
The Detroit Red Wings didn’t do anything fancy or make any major tactical changes in their 2-0 Game Three win over the Pittsburgh Penguins–they just played harder. Petr Mrazek had an easy night as the more physical Wings held Tampa Bay to just 16 shots on goal. Lightning coach Jon Cooper explained “The more desperate team won the hockey game.” Now the question becomes was this just the Detroit Red Wings ‘swansong’ or do they have enough to get back in this series? Statistically, the Wings are a 54% or so choice to win Game Four but the win doesn’t change who these teams are. Based on the regular season stats–and lest we forget, Detroit likely wouldn’t have been in the playoffs at all were it not for Boston’s collapse down the stretch–the Wings are a very mediocre team that doesn’t do anything particularly well. 23rd in goals per game, 17th in goals against, 13th on the power play and 14th on the kill. Not a bad team based on these numbers but not a team capable of a deep playoff run.
Jimmy Howard may be back in the doghouse after Petr Mzarek’s shutout on Sunday. Not saying that Mzarek shouldn’t start but it’s not really a fair comparison since the Wings’ defense finally showed up limiting Tampa to 16 shots. Howard faced a total of 65 in his two losses to open the series. The Lightning are a team that bounces back strong after a bad effort. This season they were 14-7 +3.9 units after a loss by two or more goals and over the last three years they’re 36-22 +10.4 units in this situation. Credit the Wings for showing some heart down 2-0 but that doesn’t change the qualitative comparison of these two teams. Lightning get the win here and wrap up the series at home in Game 5.
BET TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +115 OVER DETROIT RED WINGS
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS AT NEW YORK RANGERS:
Backup goalie Jeff Zatkoff played well in the Penguins’ Game One victory but looked like a backup goalie allowing 4 goals on 28 shots against in Game Two. Starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury remains a ‘game time decision’ for Game Three and has publically said that he’s ‘frustrated’ with the length of time his recovery is taking. There is at least some signs for hope concerning the Penguins’ goaltending–both Fleury and Matt Murray practiced on Monday. Murray was excellent during his stretch as the Penguins’ starter after Fleury went out with his concussion. There’s a growing feeling of concern among Penguins fans with some suggesting that unless Fleury gets back in the lineup ASAP they’ll lose this series. Personally, I think either Fleury or Murray would give them the boost that they need.
But we’ve seen this play out before–the Rangers get a win and all of a sudden they’re the best team in hockey again, at least in the eyes of their fans and the myopic New York City media. The Rangers were a top ten goal scoring team this season (7th with 2.8 per) but were decidedly mediocre or worse in every other statistical category including 15th in goals against, 14th on the power play and 26th on the penalty kill. Compare that to the Penguins’ numbers–they were a mediocre 16th on the power play but #3 in goals scored per game, #6 in goals against per game and #5 on the kill. Hockey definitely has a significant emotional component and teams have turned things around on a dime in the past. The Rangers, as a matter of fact, did just that a couple of years ago. They appeared to be on the verge of elimination until Martin St. Louis returned from his mother’s funeral and lit a fire under the team. The dynamic was somewhat different–that Rangers’ vintage was a better team that was underachieving in the playoffs. This Rangers’ team is not as good and playing true to their ability. It’ll be a plus if Fleury or Murray return for Pittsburgh but if the Penguins can just reprise what got them to this point they’ll be fine.
BET PITTSBURGH PENGUINS -115 OVER NEW YORK RANGERS
ST. LOUIS BLUES AT CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS:
This is such a tough game and tough series to handicap. At this price, the value is clearly on St. Louis but given Chicago’s success in the playoffs over the past five or six years it’s tough to go against them here. They’re on a 9-2 +7.3 unit run when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons. The Blues, on the other hand, are 1-3 -2.2 units when leading a playoff series. That being said, St. Louis looks like the better team in better form. They were lucky to get the Game One win but you can make a compelling case that this has been an even series and each team was lucky to get their wins. One big problem–they’re allowing too many shots on goal. Brian Elliott is in insane form and has cleaned up their mess but they allowed 46 shots on goal in Game Three. Allowing 99 shots on goal in three games isn’t going to get it done. On the upside, they’ve been getting more shots–31 in Game Two and 36 in Game Three.
Ultimately, this is a very even series as it has been for the past few years. St. Louis holds a 13-11 edge over the past three seasons but the Hawks have won 7 of the last 12 at the United Center. The only way to play this game is to take the price with the Blues–that’s where the value is.
BET ST. LOUIS BLUES +150 OVER CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
ANAHEIM DUCKS AT NASHVILLE PREDATORS:
I probably follow the Nashville Predators closer than any team in the NHL and I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t understand them. And what of the Anaheim Ducks? Could their torrid recovery from their horrible 1-9-1 start to the season taken too much out of this team heading into the playoffs? Could the Predators have been pulling a page from the San Antonio Spurs of the NBA’s playbook and just doing enough to get by in the regular season only to turn it on in the playoffs? The Predators could go bad at any moment but for now I’ll back them and play this game ‘Over’ the total’. Games Two and Three have been ‘pushes’ but before that 8 straight have gone over between these teams.
BET NASHVILLE PREDATORS -105 OVER ANAHEIM DUCKS
BET NASHVILLE/ANAHEIM OVER 5