NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for April 29, 2016
Friday night offers a pair of Western Conference second round series getting underway. In the early game, the St. Louis Blues will travel to Dallas to take on the Stars. In the late game, the improbable Nashville Predators will take a trip up the California Coast to begin their second round series with the San Jose Sharks.
ST. LOUIS BLUES AT DALLAS STARS:
One of the oldest hockey angles also works for basketball and baseball–play against any team coming off a 7 game series in Game One of their next series. The reasons for this are obvious and have to do with emotional letdown. Given the intensity of the Blues’ Game 7 against the Chicago Blackhawks this angle appears to be especially salient in this matchup.
There’s one huge injury for Dallas and otherwise both of these teams are relatively healthy. Tyler Seguin remains sidelined for the Stars with his Achilles Tendon issue. He’s already been ruled out of Games One and Two of the series against the Blues. Reports suggest that he’ll need at least four or five days before he can even start skating again. It’s unclear who made the decision to bring him back prematurely near the beginning of the Minnesota series. Seguin played in Game Two against the Wild and reportedly ‘re-aggravated’ his original injury. That happens when you try to return several weeks before your doctors have said that you’ll be ready. If it was Seguin’s call someone in team management or even head coach Lindy Ruff should have stepped in and put the kibosh on it. It it was someone *in* team management or on the training staff it calls into question their professional judgement. Injuries are an unavoidable part of sports and one of the toughest components of dealing with them is knowing when they’re recovered enough to return. Seguin’s case *wasn’t* a tough judgement call–he should have been out for several more weeks at that point. It’s probably an overstatement to say that the fanbase and local media is angry about the Seguin situation though they *are* asking questions.
A bigger concern for Dallas is the Blues’ superiority on defense. Sure, the Stars have the better offense but you don’t have to be Don Cherry to realize that in the playoffs it’s defense that wins games and series. St. Louis had the #4 scoring defense during the regular season and goaltender Brian Elliott has been playing out of his mind for much of the second half. He had some shaky moments during the Chicago series but played like a viking in Game Seven to get the Blues to this point. The ‘party line’ in Dallas is that the Stars are happy with their goaltending situation but the reality is that they’d take either Elliott or backup Jake Allen over either Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi in a heartbeat.
But let’s go back to the Chicago series–the Blues allowed the Blackhawks to take *way* too many shots on goal. St. Louis gave up 36.6 shots per game average in the first round. Were it not for Elliott’s play in goal the Blues would be at home watching this game on TV. St. Louis just can’t give up as many shot opportunities to Dallas or it’ll be a short series. The good news for the Blues is that they’ve got tape from the Minnesota/Dallas series to work with and the Wild held the Stars to a reasonable 27.3 shots per game.
Conclusion–if the Blues play like they did in Game 7 of the Blackhawks’ series they’ll win this series as well. Still not sure about Dallas–they allowed 16 goals in the final four games of the Minnesota series. St. Louis has won 9 of the last 15 head to head including 5 of 7 in Dallas. I’m going to give Blues’ coach Ken Hitchcock the benefit of the doubt and hope that he’s got his team ready to play as I’m going to go *against* the ‘Game 7 hangover’ angle and back the Blues.
BET ST. LOUIS BLUES +110 OVER DALLAS STARS
NASHVILLE PREDATORS AT SAN JOSE SHARKS:
Do the Nashville Predators have anything left in their ‘bag of tricks’? The Predators have held their own against the Sharks in California splitting the last four games. They’ve done even better at home and hold a 6-3 advantage in the last nine meetings. The Preds won two of three games played during the regular season taking victories at home and on the road. Pekka Rinne played out of his mind to get the Predators out of the first round–is he capable of doing it again? Rinne is a strange goalie–he does better when he faces more shots. He’s actually been to a sports psychologist for this–he has trouble maintaining focus when he’s not having a lot of rubber come at him. That’s usually a problem with the way that the Predators play (they allowed the fewest shots on goal per game in the NHL this year). Maybe their answer is to play a little ‘looser’ on offense and let Rinne face a few more shots per game?
But lest we forget–San Jose had the freaky home/road disparity during the regular season. They were the best road team in the NHL (28-10-3) but had the worst record by far at home of any playoff team. In fact, they were downright pitiful at home (18-20-3). They did win a game at home during the series with Los Angeles and the ‘party line’ is that the home mojo is no longer an issue for the Sharks. That’s hard to believe. The Predators could experience the ‘Game 7 hangover’ we discussed in the previous game’s analysis but it’s just impossible for me to bet the Sharks at home this season. I’ve followed the ‘play on the Sharks on the road/play against them at home strategy all season and it’s done well. Getting a nice underdog price against a weak home team is just too juicy to pass up.
BET NASHVILLE PREDATORS +150 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS