NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for June 12, 2016
The San Jose Sharks got an epic performance from goaltender Martin Jones to steal a win in Game Five and send the Stanley Cup Finals back to California for Game 6:
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS AT SAN JOSE SHARKS:
The mainstream sports media narrative about what has been going on in this series–and more specifically, what happened in Game Five–is completely wrong. The blathering talking heads would tell you that ‘Pittsburgh is having trouble putting away these scrappy Sharks’ and ‘San Jose gutted out a win with their backs against the wall in Game Five’. Not quite.
Pittsburgh has played well enough in all five games to date to have clinched the Stanley Cup by now. They’re putting shots on goal and keeping the Sharks from doing the same. The only ‘problem’ that they’ve had with the Sharks is that Martin Jones is a damn good goalie. That, combined with a few expected ‘yips’ from Pittsburgh rookie goaltender Matt Murray is the only way that San Jose has been able to win two games. In no way, shape or form has San Jose turned in a ‘gutsy’ performance. Even the Pittsburgh media is starting to buy into this narrative, maybe to give themselves something to do as the series drags on longer than it should have.
Anyway, back to Game Five. Here’s the reaction of some of the Sharks’ players when questioned about Jones’ monstrous performance starting with Joe Thornton: “Just unbelievable. You know, he’s been doing it all year. Just not tonight, he does it every game for us. He’s just a stud for us.”
Sharks’ defenseman Justin Braun was a little more forthcoming: “Yeah, that was unbelievable. He’s calm, he doesn’t flinch, he doesn’t go after guys, he doesn’t lose his cool. He’s always tapping us on the pads saying we did a good job, and he’s usually bailing us out. He was great to watch tonight, but we’ve got to give him a little more help.” (Emphasis added)
So Jones is not only an excellent goalie he’s almost superhuman. He’s got ice water in his veins and is always pumping his teammates up even as they hang him out to dry. And ‘usually’ bailing out his team? At least during the Stanley Cup Finals, try ‘always’ bailing out his team.
Braun saying that the Sharks have ‘got to give (Jones) a little more help’ is the understatement of the year. Martin Jones is the only reason that the San Jose Sharks are still playing hockey. Game Five was downright absurd, with Jones making 44 saves on 46 shots. All the more absurd–Logan Couture was named ‘first star’ for his 1 goal, 2 assist night. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but were it not for Jones between the pipes even the three goals he was involved on wouldn’t have held up.
ESPN asked him to affirm the merely obvious–did watching Jonathan Quick who oh by the way is one of the best goalies on the planet and seeing how he took care of business help him? Spoiler alert–it did: “We’re pretty different goaltenders. But just watching him, how he competes, he’s one of the best playoff goalies around. Yeah, I watched him compete, how he kind of elevated his game in the playoffs. That’s something you try to emulate.”
So it’s a new series right? Wrong. The Penguins have flat out dominated the Sharks and have done so consistently. See what you notice about these shots on goal totals:
GAME ONE: 41-26
GAME TWO: 30-22
GAME THREE: 42-26
GAME FOUR: 20-24
GAME FIVE: 46-22
The first number in each instance represents the Pittsburgh Penguins’ shots on goals and the second the San Jose Sharks. Here’s what you should have noticed:
1) The Sharks are basically standing around on defense and watching Martin Jones stand on his head every night. They’ve allowed 30+ shots in four of the five games, 40+ shots in three of them. They’ve outshot the Penguins once (Game Four) and managed to lose that game. That’s a 35.8 shots on goal average. Throw out Game Four and the Sharks are allowing just under 40 shots against per game (39.5).
2) San Jose’s offensive stars aren’t ‘struggling’–Pittsburgh’s defense is making their lives a living hell. Notice the second column that reads 26-22-26-24-22. That’s not only demonstrative of how the Penguins are bottling up the San Jose attack that is incredibly consistent. That’s a 24 shots against per game average. So that makes the average game shots on goal average:
35.8–24
And that’s if we include Game Four. Pittsburgh is outshooting San Jose by an average of nearly 12 a game. If you think that the 39.5 metric is a more accurate reflection of this series, that means that Pittsburgh is outshooting San Jose by 15.5 per game. The hockey stat geek will tell you that shots is a misleading stat and there is truth to that. In this case, however, it makes it crystal clear–one team is making their goalie work *way* too hard and it’s not the one with a bird that lives at the Antarctic on their sweater.
Penguins’ captain Sidney Crosby was asked if Jones’ Game 5 performance was the best against Pittsburgh during this playoffs (spoiler alert–it was). Watch how smart Sid plays this: “I don’t know. I feel like he made some big saves, but I feel like there was some pucks there that beat him and didn’t go in. I guess if you add everything up, maybe that’s the case. But I feel like we still had our chances.”
What Crosby *wanted* to say was ‘It was like Jesus was in goal. He was immaculate.’ If he does that, however, he could psyche out his teammates into thinking that they can’t beat this hot goalie. So Sid downplays Jones’ performance without throwing him under the bus since that’s better for his team’s mindset heading into Game Six. I’m far from a Sid fanboy, but that’s why he’s got the ‘C’ on his jersey.
Sid also knows that the Sharks’ season *has* to die on Sunday. With Jones playing out of his gourd at the moment the Penguins just can’t risk a Game Seven, even if it is on home ice. Lest we forget, the Sharks had the best road record in the NHL this year.
BET PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +105 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS