NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for June 4, 2016
Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals goes on Saturday night and the Pittsburgh Penguins are ‘going back to Cali’ up 2-0 on the San Jose Sharks. That makes tonight’s game downright crucial for the Sharks:
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS AT SAN JOSE SHARKS:
As strange as it may seem, Saturday’s Game Three will be the first Stanley Cup Finals game ever on the San Jose Sharks’ home ice. The SAP Center will be rocking and the intensity will be compounded by the urgency of the situation. The Sharks weren’t dominated by any means in the first two games of this series with the Penguins claiming a pair of one goal victories. That’s not particularly relevant, however, since the bottom line is that San Jose finds themselves in a 0-2 hole.
Most teams accept the fact that they’ll play better on home ice but the Sharks are an anomaly. San Jose had the best road record in the NHL this season at 28-10-3. That’s a game better than the Washington Capitals’ regular season road record meaning that the Sharks were better on the road than a team that put up 120 points. The flip side of that, however, is that they were a very marginal home team. The Sharks were 18-20-3 at the SAP Center. That’s the worst home record of any playoff team by far and a worse home record than either Winnipeg (last place in the Central Division) or Edmonton (last place in the Pacific Division and Western Conference).
The Sharks’ coaches and players insist that their home ice issues were dealt with after the midway point of the season and there’s definitely some validation for that. San Jose is 7-2 in the playoffs at home and won all four games of the seven game battle with Nashville on home ice. Regardless of the venue, this is clearly the pivotal game of San Jose’s season. A win here and they’re down 2-1 and back in the series. A loss here they’re down 0-3 and the Penguins are a 97.3% choice to win the series. It’s not entirely unprecedented for a team to come back from an 0-3 deficit in the NHL like it is in the NBA but close. Only four teams have managed to pull off this daunting feat with one in the Stanley Cup Finals.
There’s also some interesting data on the performance of teams that win Games One and Two of the Stanley Cup Finals (and 7 game NHL playoff series in general) by one goal in each game. Teams that fit this profile are 46-10 series winners (82.1%) in all NHL best of seven series and 10-1 (90.9%) in the Stanley Cup Finals. It’s not immediately obvious why this is the case. Logic would suggest that winning two close games wouldn’t produce so many series winners.
Some bad personnel news for the Sharks–Thomas Hertl will miss Game Three under somewhat mysterious circumstances. Hertl was arguably the most effective Sharks’ skater in the first two games. He missed practice yesterday but that was characterized as a ‘day off’. He was scratched earlier today with most reports suggesting a lower body injury as the culprit. Danius Zubrius will take Hertl’s spot on the top line.
The goaltending assignments haven’t changed with San Jose’s Martin Jones between the pipes for the Sharks and ridiculously poised 21 year old rookie Matt Murray back in net for the Penguins. The ascendance of Murray has been one of the more amazing things I’ve seen in a lifetime of watching hockey. It was no secret that Murray was good–he was the best goalie in the AHL last year. But even the most talented goalies usually take some time to develop the poise necessary to win in the Stanley Cup playoffs. There are exceptions–the great Patrick Roy comes immediately to mind–but we’re talking a legit Hall of Famer there. Murray has been downright amazing. It’s gone from the mainstream media suggesting that the Penguins were screwed following the late season injury to Marc-Andre Fleury to Fleury being on the way out of town. Murray played great during the regular season but the way that he quickly earned the respect and confidence of his teammates is incredible. Murray’s mental game is phenomenal for such a young player combining the cool confidence of Ken Dryden with the competitive fire of the aforementioned Roy.
Lost in the Murray hype (though it’s hard to call it ‘hype’ since it’s all legit) is the play of San Jose goalie Martin Jones. Jones is only in his third full season but his first as a starter. It was apparent that he had skills from the get-go but the problem was that he was stuck in Los Angeles as the backup to Jonathan Quick. Not only is Quick one of the best in the business but he’s a notorious workhorse, starting 60+ games per season. Jones was a restricted free agent after last season and the Kings shipped him to Boston who sent him to San Jose. Having never played more than 19 games in a season there was some question about his ability to handle the workload but he’s been very solid playing in 65 regular season games and 18 playoff games.
San Jose is good enough to win this game and get back into the series. Our question is the valuation. What is the basis for making the Sharks a -145 favorite in this game? After all, Pittsburgh hasn’t been an underdog in eleven games dating back to the Washington series. The Penguins were -130 to -150 favorites in all three games at Tampa Bay during the conference finals. The only real way to justify it–and particularly with Hertl’s absence–is that San Jose bettors are ‘paying a premium’ due to the ‘must win’ situation. That means the value is squarely on Pittsburgh and that’s how we’ll bet it.
BET PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +130 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS