NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for May 1, 2016
The Game 7 hangover lives! One of the toughest situational spots in all of sports claimed two more victims on Friday night as both the St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators went down to defeat. Game Two in both series is set for Sunday:
THE GAME SEVEN HANGOVER:
What? You’re not familiar with the ‘Game Seven Hangover’? It’s simple. I’m sure you’re all familiar with a ‘letdown spot’. It’s what emotional/subjective handicappers call a game after a ‘big’ game on a team’s schedule. Say Georgia plays Alabama in college football. The Bulldogs win outright as a +7 underdog in a game considered a classic by anyone that watches the SEC. Next week they play a team like the University of Massachusetts as -28 point favorites. How do you play it?
If you said ‘take the points’ move to the head of the class. Without even evaluating the matchup you can make a pretty compelling case for this play. The Dawgs are off a HUGE game that was likely physically draining and certainly emotionally draining. There’s no way they can be ‘up’ for UMass meaning you’ll have (presumably) a focused underdog against an unfocused and unmotivated favorite.
So that’s how it works in theory. It’s effective across all sports. But you’re not going to find it in the Stanley Cup playoffs, right? WRONG! That brings us to:
THE GAME SEVEN HANGOVER:
Play against any team coming off a 7 game series victory in Game 1 of their next series. If both teams are coming off of Game 7 (which will be happening in the NBA next round) they cancel out. A team that wins a Game 7 has a brutal letdown spot waiting for them in their next game. If it was the first Game 7 win in franchise history (like Nashville) or a team beats a hated rival (like St. Louis) it can be even worse. At one point you could play this blindly. Now, it’s baked into the line to some degree but that matters less in a moneyline sport like hockey since you’re not laying points. Learn it, know it, live it.
ST. LOUIS BLUES AT DALLAS STARS:
Game One was interesting not so much for the result–a 2-1 Dallas win–but how they went about getting it. The Dallas Stars aren’t supposed to be able to win playing this kind of hockey. But they went out and beat a physical team with good defense and goaltending at their own game. Well, they had a big assist from the St. Louis Blues who gave up 42 shots to the highest scoring team in the NHL. Brian Elliott bailed them out again–at least to some degree–and let them stay in the game. You shouldn’t be forcing your goalie to make 40+ saves if you consider yourself a Stanley Cup contender.
This has been a very evenly matched head to head series over the past few years. St. Louis has won 9 of the last 16 overall including 5 of 8 in Dallas. During the regular season, the Blues won 4 of 5 meetings. Dallas could be without forward Patrick Eaves on Sunday. Eaves is a role player but an important component of the Stars’ power play. Eaves is listed as ‘questionable’. St. Louis is pretty healthy at this stage of the season. They’ll send workhorse Brian Elliott into net again to face Dallas’ Kari Lehtonen. No huge secret that the Blues have to do a better job defensively and controlling tempo. I think they will. These are two evenly matched teams–the final standings demonstrated that as Dallas finished with 109 points to 107 for St. Louis. Surprised to see the Blues favored in Game Two but they’re who we want.
BET ST. LOUIS BLUES -115 OVER DALLAS STARS
NASHVILLE PREDATORS AT SAN JOSE SHARKS:
I’m less confident about the ability of the Nashville Predators to shake off their ‘Game Seven Hangover’ and tie the series with the San Jose Sharks. Nashville played well for two periods before falling apart in the third. The Preds have recalled backup goalie Marek Mazanec from Milwaukee, more to give him a taste of playoff experience than anything else. At least that’s the official word for now–backup Carter Hutton played the waning moments of Friday’s loss but at this time there’s nothing to suggest that Pekka Rinne won’t be in net again on Sunday. We’re as hard on Rinne as anyone but the Game One loss wasn’t his fault as he turned back 33 of 36 Sharks’ shots. The Predators’ defense simply fell apart in the third period.
This brings us back to the usual theme we articulate when we handicap a game involving the Nashville Predators: they’re such an erratic team. We’ll ‘draw a line’ through their Game One performance. They played well for two periods and that’s more than we expected given the short turnaround from their Game 7 win over Anaheim. The fact remains that San Jose is one of the worst home teams in the NHL–and THE worst among playoff teams. I have no clue which Nashville team will show up on Sunday but this is a play against the Sharks’ miserable home form this year. You just can’t lay -160 with a team that was 18-20-3 on home ice this season. When the ‘good Predators’ show up they’re a tough team to handle. We’ll take a shot on them against an overpriced Sharks team.
BET NASHVILLE PREDATORS +150 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS