NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for May 12, 2016
Another Game Seven tonight as the Nashville Predators try to win another series on the road, this time against the San Jose Sharks. The winner will take on the St. Louis Blues for the right to play in the Stanley Cup Finals:
NASHVILLE PREDATORS AT SAN JOSE SHARKS:
I’ve counted out the Nashville Predators several times already during this playoff season and every time they’ve managed to survive. They did it again in Game Six of this series. Nashville was down 3-2 midway through the third period but Colin Wilson tied it up at 12:44 and Viktor Arvidsson won it with his first playoff goal at 2:03 in overtime. No three overtime war of attrition this time and the Predators got to get to bed at a decent hour.
So do the Predators have another Game 7 win on the road in them? I didn’t think they had the first one but here they are. San Jose has won three home games in this series and the Predators have never won a playoff game on Sharks’ home ice. But lest we forget, San Jose was a pitifully weak home team during the regular season. They had the best road record in the NHL at 28-10-3 but were just 18-20-3 at home. The last place team in the West–the Edmonton Oilers–had a better home record (19-20-2). And making matters all the more bizarre they haven’t won on the road in this series. The Sharks’ players and coaches have suggested that the team’s home struggles are over. They won all three road games in their opening round series against Los Angeles but were just 1-1 at home.
It’s tough to handicap any Game 7 since the outcome depends less on the ‘X’s and O’s’ and more on the mental and emotional battle of wills. On paper, this are two evenly matched teams but that’s evident given the 3-3 tie in the series. The Predators have the confidence of already winning a Game 7 on the road in this playoffs. Another factor–the Predators got an extra day between Game 6 and Game 7 and were able to give the players a day off for the first time in over a month. This is one of those things that sounds good in theory but could create a lack of focus or cohesion. Or it may not. With the Predators in particular you never know what you’re going to get.
On the downside, the Predators have never reached the conference finals despite nine playoff appearances in the past twelve years. Of course, the Sharks have plenty of historical playoff failures weighing on them as well. Since the last game of 2013’s playoffs San Jose is now 1-6 in ‘series clinching’ situations.
Any handicap of the Nashville Predators that you get from me goes back to the fact that you can never figure this team out. They’re easily the most schizophrenic team in the NHL. On any given night they can look like Stanley Cup contenders. On any given night they can also look like rejects from the ECHL. I’m not saying that they’re streaky, like they’ve played well in winning streaks and bad in losing streaks. That would be a welcome degree of predictability. I mean that on a night to night or even period to period basis you just never know what you’re going to get. They’re capable of going toe to toe with any team in the NHL at their best and capable of being dominated by bottom feeders at their worst.
Goaltender Pekka Rinne was similarly unpredictable. In all fairness, he’s been solid in the playoffs and was downright heroic in Nashville’s triple overtime victory in Game Four. But ever since his knee injury late last season he hasn’t been especially dependable. Before he went down with a sprained knee last year he was as good as any goalie in the NHL capable of making insane saves and demonstrating ridiculous dexterity for 6’5″. After the injury, he was consistently inconsistent. He’s back to 100% physically but he suffered from a profound lack of focus at times during the regular season. He’d be the first to admit this and he sought the services of a sports psychologist to figure it out. Rinne’s problem was that he had a hard time staying in ‘the zone’ in games when he wasn’t facing a barrage of shots. 30 or 40 shots he was fine, but 15 to 18 shots and he’d invariably allow a couple of soft goals. The problem was compounded by the fact that Nashville is a fixture at the bottom of the ‘shots allowed per game’ standings. He never really got past this problem although as noted earlier he’s been solid in the playoffs. The concern is always there that ‘bad Pekka’ could return much as ‘bad Brian Elliott’ did in Game Six for St. Louis.
This all comes back to the fundamental challenge of sports betting–it’s not trying to ‘pick winners’. The task is trying to ‘find value’. Do that and the winners and losers take care of themselves and you make money. In this game, there’s only one way to bet it–take Nashville plus the price. San Jose is simply not worth the price. They’re a good team, to be sure, but they’re not worthy of being such a lopsided favorite over the Predators in any venue. Nashville has already won one Game 7 on the road in this playoffs. With St. Louis’ win over Dallas last night road teams are now 2-1 in Game 7’s this playoff season. And if any team has a questionable ‘home ice advantage’ it’s San Jose. Sure, they’ve done well historically against the Predators but so had the Anaheim Ducks up until Game 7. These are two evenly matched teams and giving San Jose a huge home ice advantage is absurd. Win or lose, the value is on Nashville.
BET NASHVILLE PREDATORS +160 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS